The San Francisco 49ers talented offense was middling but serviceable enough to edge the depleted Los Angeles Chargers by a score of 22-16 on Sunday night football in Week 10. The Niners will compete in another prime time slot when they travel to Mexico City to take on the Arizona Cardinals on Monday night football in week 11. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Monday November 21st, 2022 at 5:15pm PT (ESPN)
- Where: Estadio Azteca, Mexico City, Mexico
- Line: 49ers -8, o/u 43.5
Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals were able to go into Los Angeles and handle a broken Rams squad to the tune of 27-17, behind a mistake-free, 26-37 for 238 yards and 1 TD performance by Colt McCoy, 2 rushing TDs from James Connor and 10 catches and 98 receiving yards from DeAndre Hopkins.
After ten weeks, Arizona ranks 29th in total weighted DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at -21.3 percent, 29th in total weighted offensive DVOA at -15.7 percent with a 29th ranked offensive pass DVOA at -8.8 percent and 27th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -13.8 percent. The Cardinals defense is rated 20th in total weighted defensive DVOA at 2.1 percent with a 19th rated defensive pass DVOA at 8.2 percent and 16th rated defensive rush DVOA at -4.5 percent.
Kyler Murray is 24th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 22 and 23rd in total QBR at 47.0 with 12 touchdown passes, 6 interceptions, 0 fumbles lost and a 67.4 completion percentage. Arizona's offensive line is 25th in run blocking with 4.20 adjusted line yards and 18th in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 7.3 percent. The Cardinals' defensive line is 21st against the run with 4.58 adjusted line yards and 26th with an adjusted sack rate of 5.5 percent.
The Cardinals are 5-5 ATS and 5-4-1 to the over/under. Cardinals games have gone over the total in four straight contests, are 2-1-1 to the over/under as an away underdog, and they are 4-3 ATS as an underdog and 3-1 ATS as an away underdog. Quarterbacks Colt McCoy and Kyler Murray, offensive linemen Max Garcia and D. J. Humphries, cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. and kicker Matt Prater are questionable, and tight end Zach Ertz is out for Week 11.
San Francisco 49ers
The Niners were able to control their Week 10 game behind 89 yards on 18 carries from Elijah Mitchell and 38 yards and a rushing TD on 14 carries from Christian McCaffrey, with Brandon Aiyuk tallying 6 receptions for 84 yards and Jimmy Garoppolo completing 19 of 28 passes for 240 yards.
After ten weeks, San Francisco ranks 11th in weighted total DVOA at 9.9 percent, 11th in weighted offensive DVOA at 5.5 percent with a 7th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 23.3 percent and 23rd ranked offensive rush DVOA at -8.9 percent. The 49er defense is rated 9th in total weighted defensive DVOA at -6.4 percent with a 10th rated defensive pass DVOA at -2.9 percent and 3rd rated defensive rush DVOA at -18.4 percent.
Jimmy Garoppolo is 7th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 603 and 20th in total QBR at 48.2 with 11 touchdown passes, 4 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost and a 67.1 completion percentage. San Francisco's offensive line is 15th in run blocking with 4.51 adjusted line yards and 15th in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 7.0 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 2nd against the run with 3.69 adjusted line yards and 6th with an adjusted sack rate of 8.8 percent.
The 49ers are 4-5 ATS and 3-6 to the over/under. The Niners are 1-3 ATS and 1-3 to the over/under after a win, and 1-3 ATS and 1-3 to the over/under as an away favorite. Wide receiver Danny Gray and defensive lineman Samson Ebukam are questionable, and defensive lineman Arik Armstead is out for Week 11.
Prediction
Sure, the Niners are significantly more talented on paper than this broken Cardinals team with two hobbled quarterbacks, but eight points is entirely too many to lay in a divisional match up that has seen Arizona go 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 contests and winning 11 of the last 14 meetings straight up, including a game won by the score of 31-17 with Colt McCoy as a 5.5 point underdog last season.
With today's win, Kliff Kingsbury is now 11-14 outright in his career as a favorite and 17-16-1 outright as an underdog.
He becomes the only coach in the Super Bowl era with a winning record as an underdog and a losing record as a favorite (min. 15 games in each role). pic.twitter.com/G6sDJkmGfk
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) November 14, 2022
Say what you want about Kliff Kingsbury but he is the only coach in the Super Bowl era with a winning record as an underdog and losing record as a favorite and with a significant portion of those underdog wins coming against San Francisco, we see the betting value in taking the points in Mexico City.
Pick: Cardinals +8
2022 Season ATS: 4-6