The San Francisco 49ers emerge out of the bye with improving health and high expectations for the second half of the season. The Niners will welcome the Los Angeles Chargers to Levi's on Sunday night football as sizeable favorites. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Sunday November 13th, 2022 at 5:20pm PT (NBC)
- Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
- Line: 49ers -7, o/u 45.5
Los Angeles Chargers
Despite its depleted receiving corps, the Los Angeles Chargers were buoyed by a receiving and rushing touchdown from Austin Ekeler and 2 field goals in the last 6 minutes of the game, including the game winner, from Cameron Dicker to pull off a 20-17 win at the Atlanta Falcons, moving their record to 5-3 on the season.
After nine weeks, Los Angeles ranks 21st in total weighted DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at -5.4 percent, 21st in total weighted offensive DVOA at -3.8 percent with a 16th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 11.7 percent and 29th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -21.2 percent. The Chargers defense is rated 20th in total weighted defensive DVOA at 3.4 percent with a 10th rated defensive pass DVOA at -2.2 percent and 29th rated defensive rush DVOA at 5.5 percent.
Justin Herbert is 11th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 396 and 11th in total QBR at 58.4 with 13 touchdown passes, 5 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost and a 66.4 completion percentage. Los Angeles' offensive line is 27th in run blocking with 4.12 adjusted line yards and 1st in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 3.4 percent. The Chargers' defensive line is 24th against the run with 4.71 adjusted line yards and 16th with an adjusted sack rate of 7.3 percent.
The Chargers are 5-3 ATS and 4-4 to the over/under. The Chargers are 4-0 ATS as an away team, 1-0 ATS as an underdog, 4-1 to the over/under in non-divisional games. Linebacker Joey Bosa and cornerback J.C Jackson remain on IR, defensive tackle Austin Johnson, kicker Dustin Hopkins and receiver Mike Williams are out, offensive tackle Trey Pipkins III, receiver Keenan Allen, defensive tackle Jerry Tillery and linebacker Chris Rumph II are questionable for Week 10.
San Francisco 49ers
Before the bye week, the 49ers showcased how Christian McCaffrey's further integration into the team and playbook unlocked the potential of Kyle Shanahan's offense in an unprecedented manner, with the new running back scoring a passing, receiving and rushing touchdown en route to a 31-14 domination at the Los Angeles Rams, sweeping the season series.
After nine weeks, San Francisco ranks 9th in weighted total DVOA at 9.0 percent, 11th in weighted offensive DVOA at 6.7 percent with a 7th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 24.3 percent and 23rd ranked offensive rush DVOA at -9.3 percent. The 49er defense is rated 11th in total weighted defensive DVOA at -3.9 percent with a 13th rated defensive pass DVOA at 2.5 percent and 4th rated defensive rush DVOA at -18.4 percent.
Jimmy Garoppolo is 6th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 529 and 23rd in total QBR at 47.4 with 11 touchdown passes, 4 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost and a 67.0 completion percentage. San Francisco's offensive line is 20th in run blocking with 4.36 adjusted line yards and 19th in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 7.4 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 3rd against the run with 3.76 adjusted line yards and 8th with an adjusted sack rate of 8.5 percent.
The 49ers are 4-4 ATS and 3-5 to the over/under. the 49ers are 2-0 ATS as a home favorite, 2-1 ATS as the home team, 1-5 to the over/under as the favorite, 0-2 to the over/under as a home favorite. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw, defensive tackle Arik Armstead, cornerback Jason Verrett, fullback Kyle Juszczyk, receiver Deebo Samuel and receiving Jajuan Jennings are questionable and running back Elijah Mitchell remains on IR so far for Week 10.
Prediction
The 49ers may have a decent record as home favorites this season, but Kyle Shanahan has not fared well as a favorite, even less so as a large favorite at Levi's, and we are hesitant to spot Justin Herbert and a Chargers team that is 4-0 ATS on the road a whole touchdown.
The 49ers have been an under team for most of the season and unders, particularly in prime time games, have been cashing at a historic rate so far this year, but can we expect these trends to continue?
2022 NFL betting update:
Underdogs: 53-82-1 SU, +11.6 units
Underdogs 77-56-3 (58%) ATS
Unders: 81-55 (60%)
Unders in Primetime: 18-10 (64%)Data per @Bet_Labs
— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) November 8, 2022
In anticipating regression to the mean, the question is not "if" but "when", and with more time for Christian McCaffrey to potentiate Kyle Shanahan's offense and an arm in Justin Herbert's that can make up yards and points quickly and leaves backdoors open for ATS covers, we foresee more scoring than expected on Sunday night.
Pick: Over 45.5
2022 Season ATS: 4-5
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