Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports


San Francisco 49ers laying a TD at home to the Los Angeles Chargers - Week 10, 2022 odds and pick

Nov 8, 2022 at 2:25 PM--


The San Francisco 49ers emerge out of the bye with improving health and high expectations for the second half of the season. The Niners will welcome the Los Angeles Chargers to Levi's on Sunday night football as sizeable favorites. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

  • When: Sunday November 13th, 2022 at 5:20pm PT (NBC)
  • Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
  • Line: 49ers -7, o/u 45.5

Los Angeles Chargers

Despite its depleted receiving corps, the Los Angeles Chargers were buoyed by a receiving and rushing touchdown from Austin Ekeler and 2 field goals in the last 6 minutes of the game, including the game winner, from Cameron Dicker to pull off a 20-17 win at the Atlanta Falcons, moving their record to 5-3 on the season.

After nine weeks, Los Angeles ranks 21st in total weighted DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at -5.4 percent, 21st in total weighted offensive DVOA at -3.8 percent with a 16th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 11.7 percent and 29th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -21.2 percent. The Chargers defense is rated 20th in total weighted defensive DVOA at 3.4 percent with a 10th rated defensive pass DVOA at -2.2 percent and 29th rated defensive rush DVOA at 5.5 percent.

Justin Herbert is 11th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 396 and 11th in total QBR at 58.4 with 13 touchdown passes, 5 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost and a 66.4 completion percentage. Los Angeles' offensive line is 27th in run blocking with 4.12 adjusted line yards and 1st in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 3.4 percent. The Chargers' defensive line is 24th against the run with 4.71 adjusted line yards and 16th with an adjusted sack rate of 7.3 percent.

The Chargers are 5-3 ATS and 4-4 to the over/under. The Chargers are 4-0 ATS as an away team, 1-0 ATS as an underdog, 4-1 to the over/under in non-divisional games. Linebacker Joey Bosa and cornerback J.C Jackson remain on IR, defensive tackle Austin Johnson, kicker Dustin Hopkins and receiver Mike Williams are out, offensive tackle Trey Pipkins III, receiver Keenan Allen, defensive tackle Jerry Tillery and linebacker Chris Rumph II are questionable for Week 10.

San Francisco 49ers

Before the bye week, the 49ers showcased how Christian McCaffrey's further integration into the team and playbook unlocked the potential of Kyle Shanahan's offense in an unprecedented manner, with the new running back scoring a passing, receiving and rushing touchdown en route to a 31-14 domination at the Los Angeles Rams, sweeping the season series.

After nine weeks, San Francisco ranks 9th in weighted total DVOA at 9.0 percent, 11th in weighted offensive DVOA at 6.7 percent with a 7th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 24.3 percent and 23rd ranked offensive rush DVOA at -9.3 percent. The 49er defense is rated 11th in total weighted defensive DVOA at -3.9 percent with a 13th rated defensive pass DVOA at 2.5 percent and 4th rated defensive rush DVOA at -18.4 percent.

Jimmy Garoppolo is 6th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 529 and 23rd in total QBR at 47.4 with 11 touchdown passes, 4 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost and a 67.0 completion percentage. San Francisco's offensive line is 20th in run blocking with 4.36 adjusted line yards and 19th in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 7.4 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 3rd against the run with 3.76 adjusted line yards and 8th with an adjusted sack rate of 8.5 percent.

The 49ers are 4-4 ATS and 3-5 to the over/under. the 49ers are 2-0 ATS as a home favorite, 2-1 ATS as the home team, 1-5 to the over/under as the favorite, 0-2 to the over/under as a home favorite. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw, defensive tackle Arik Armstead, cornerback Jason Verrett, fullback Kyle Juszczyk, receiver Deebo Samuel and receiving Jajuan Jennings are questionable and running back Elijah Mitchell remains on IR so far for Week 10.

Prediction

The 49ers may have a decent record as home favorites this season, but Kyle Shanahan has not fared well as a favorite, even less so as a large favorite at Levi's, and we are hesitant to spot Justin Herbert and a Chargers team that is 4-0 ATS on the road a whole touchdown.

The 49ers have been an under team for most of the season and unders, particularly in prime time games, have been cashing at a historic rate so far this year, but can we expect these trends to continue?


In anticipating regression to the mean, the question is not "if" but "when", and with more time for Christian McCaffrey to potentiate Kyle Shanahan's offense and an arm in Justin Herbert's that can make up yards and points quickly and leaves backdoors open for ATS covers, we foresee more scoring than expected on Sunday night.

Pick: Over 45.5

2022 Season ATS: 4-5

Related News




Poll

  • What is your best bet for 49ers vs. Chargers on 11/13/22?
  • 49ers -7
  • Chargers +7
  • Over 45.5
  • Under 45.5
The opinions within this article are those of the writer and, while just as important, are not necessarily those of the site as a whole.
Nobody's perfect. Did you find a mistake in this article?
Report it.



LISTEN

Facebook Comments



More San Francisco 49ers News



49ers, Shanahan favored by 4 pts vs. Dolphins, McDaniel - Week 13, 2022 odds and pick

By Winston Chung
Nov 29

The San Francisco 49ers offense came out a bit flat after playing at elevation but the defense ensured it would not matter in a 13-0 shut out of the New Orleans Saints in Week 12. Now long-time associates turned opponents will lead their respective first place teams in the most anticipated match up of NFL Week 13, when Mike McDaniel returns to the Bay with the Miami Dolphins to take on the Niners and Kyle Shanahan at Levi's Stadium. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective. When: Sunday December 4, 2022 at 1:05 p.m. PT (FOX) Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California Line: 49ers -4, o/u 46.5 Miami Dolphins The Miami Dolphins took care of business against the Houston Texans, racing out to a 30-0



49ers practice and media schedule leading to Week 13 matchup vs. Dolphins

By Site Staff
Nov 29

The San Francisco 49ers will hold three full practices this week as the team prepares for its Week 13 matchup against the Miami Dolphins. Head coach Kyle Shanahan, defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryan, offensive line/run game coordinator Chris Foerster, and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo are scheduled to speak with the media. The 49ers will make the press conferences available at 49ers.com, on the team's official mobile app, and YouTube page. Below is the schedule, which is subject to change, for the upcoming week. All times are



49ers-Dolphins: How to watch, stream, and listen to the Week 13 matchup

By Site Staff
Nov 30

The San Francisco 49ers take on the Miami Dolphins at Levi's Stadium this week in the second of a three-game homestand. This game marks the 14th meeting all-time between the Niners and the Dolphins and the second time that the Dolphins have visited Levi's Stadium. The Dolphins lead the all-time series between the two teams, 8-6. Previous game The 49ers are coming off a 13-0 win against the New Orleans Saints. On offense, the 49ers tallied 317 total yards, with 222 yards coming through the air from QB Jimmy Garoppolo, who completed 27 of his 36 passing attempts, including a five-yard touchdown pass to WR Jauan Jennings, which was his first touchdown reception of the season. Jennings finished the game with six receptions for 49 yards and one touchdown, while WR



49ers Notebook: Shanahan happy with backup RBs in Mitchell's absence; 49ers overcome unusual week; Saints' impressive streak snapped

By Kirk Larrabee
Nov 27

It was a strange week for the San Francisco 49ers, who had to work through an unusual schedule that saw them arrive home from their Monday night game in Mexico City in the early morning hours on Tuesday, followed by Thanksgiving on Thursday. Still, they managed to work through it and prepare themselves to play against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, and in the end they came out on top with a 13-0 win. How did the 49ers work through that schedule? We'll look at that in this version of 49ers Notebook, along with some postgame thoughts from head coach Kyle Shanahan on the running back situation, a look at an impressive streak the 49ers snapped on Sunday, and much more. Let's get it started... (See also:


Featured

Trending News

Share 49ersWebzone