Responding to myths that 49ers Trey Lance will be a bust

And you thought Alex Smith was a polarizing 49ers player. Not that the former first-overall pick of the San Francisco 49ers ever did anything to become polarizing. But being the number one overall pick placed Smith under a severe microscope. What followed was a handful of years of bad coaching, and some really bad teams, that led to Smith becoming a player 49ers fans could not agree on.

There were ups and downs (mostly downs). From Smith's first season, in which he threw 11 interceptions and only one touchdown (he finished with an abysmal QB rating of 40.8), to the "We Want Carr" chants in 2010 (that's David, not Derek), to multiple touchdown drives to win a thrilling game over the New Orleans Saints in January 2012. Smith was a controversial player.

But at least he had played multiple seasons before fans started taking sides on the "Great QB Debate." Trey Lance, last year's number three overall pick, has barely played. Yet the scrutiny surrounding the young signal-caller has reached a frenzied level (cue the shark-infested, bloody-waters video).

Sure San Francisco has had other controversies at quarterback before. There was the Joe Montana versus Steve Young firestorm from the late 1980s that Bill Walsh seemed to fan. Then there was the Smith-Colin Kaepernick changing of the guard. That one was much more mellow, primarily because of how well Kaepernick played in 2012. And who could forget the still-ongoing love-hate affair the fans have with Subway® superstar Jimmy Garoppolo.

But again, all of those quarterbacks had played—a lot. Lance has only played 10 quarters in the NFL. And yet so many are claiming he's a bust before he really even has a chance to play. Is it because the 49ers used so much draft capital to get him (three first-round picks)? Does the national media hate the 49ers after all? Is there actually an east-coast bias? What is daylight savings time, and if we're saving so much of it, where is it? These are questions I need answers to.

Maybe Lance won't be any good, though I strongly believe he will be very good, if not great. But we really don't know. This is why it's insane for people to already label him a bust before he even gets a full season as the starter. So here are my responses to some of the reasons "experts" have given as to why Lance will fail as a professional quarterback:

He barely played in college

It is true that Lance didn't play much in college. He appeared in a total of 19 college football games. That certainly wasn't his fault. After a terrific season in 2019, Lance and his North Dakota State teammates lost their 2020 season due to the Covid-19 Pandemic. It is possible that if Lance had played the entire 2020 season, and had as much or more success as in 2019, he may have been drafted before the 49ers were able to get him.

But can we say he'll be no good simply because he didn't play much? No. There have been four-year starters in college who many believed would be great in the NFL, but they didn't amount to much. Tim Tebow was the Heisman Trophy-winning, National Champion who was considered one of the greatest college football players ever. But he couldn't make it in the NFL.

Zach Wilson played three seasons of college football. Yet he only appeared in 11 more games than Lance did. Same thing with Mac Jones. Cam Newton appeared in only one game more than Trey Lance. It's not as if Lance never played college football.

He played against lesser talent in college

And he dominated that lesser talent in 2019, passing for 2,786 yards, 28 touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Maybe I should bold the zero picks part so the critics don't miss it. Nah.

He finished with a completion percentage of 66.9% that season, to go along with a passer rating of 180.6. He also added 1,100 yards on the ground and scored 14 touchdowns as a runner. So he accounted for 42 touchdowns and 3,886 yards as a sophomore.

Again, it's true that he played against lesser talent. But he also played with lesser talent.

He couldn't beat out Garoppolo

Lance was 21 years old as a rookie. He was younger than most, and as mentioned above, hadn't played as much. As a freshman, he made a brief appearance in only two games, but only attempted one pass. As a sophomore, Lance played in 16 games. He only played in one as a junior before the season was shut down. He was a project from day one and was not expected to beat out Garoppolo, or even challenge to be the starter.

As we currently stand, however, he looks to have beaten out Garoppolo. The 49ers seem intent on trading last season's starter and handing the keys over to Lance.

Well, they still haven't named him the starter

Kyle Shanahan has all but said Lance is the starter. When asked, at the NFL Owner's Meetings in March, if Lance is ready to be the starter, the head coach responded, "That's why we looked into trading Jimmy Garoppolo." I'm not sure how that can be taken any other way. It's true that Garoppolo is still technically on the team, but this has nothing to do with Lance.

It's also true that Shanahan hasn't named Lance the starter. But last year he didn't name Garoppolo the starter until late in the preseason. That's how he normally does things.

His 2021 completion percentage was poor because he's inaccurate

As Ted H Niners put it, Lance had "Zero prep for vs SEA & only 1-week prep each at AZ & vs HOU." Ted is exactly right. Lance didn't have the luxury of being "the guy" like the other rookie quarterbacks.

Additionally, Lance's critics never mention the fact that he played with a broken index finger, on his throwing hand. Lance sustained the injury during the preseason, and it impacted how he threw all season long. After the season, Lance admitted that the injury forced him to learn to throw the ball differently.

And that doesn't even mention the knee injury Lance sustained against the Arizona Cardinals. In that game, Lance sprained his left knee and spent some time on crutches the following week. Anyone can understand that a broken finger, on your throwing hand, would affect the accuracy of your passes. But I think we can safely assume that a sprained knee will have a negative effect on throwing accuracy, as well. That is what Lance dealt with in his Arizona start.

It's not surprising he had some accuracy issues in 2021. Most rookies do. Especially when they have a broken finger.

He's yet to do anything in the NFL

He's yet to be given a chance. Until Lance gets to play a season as the starting quarterback, we can't judge him for having not yet accomplished much. The plan was never for Lance to beat out Garoppolo. The plan all along was for Lance to learn. Garoppolo gave the 49ers the best chance to win a Super Bowl last season, especially after Lance broke his finger and then injured his knee.

Early in the season, Shanahan used Lance in specific spots, most notably in Detroit and against Green Bay. Lance had success, throwing and running for touchdowns. Shanahan seemed to be using him the same way Walsh used his young backup quarterback, Montana. Walsh would put Montana in situations where he could succeed and build his confidence. Jim Harbaugh did this some with Kaepernick in 2012.

But Shanahan went away from it. There were rumblings that some of the veteran players felt this was disrespectful to Garoppolo and told the coach as much. Who knows if that really happened, but for some reason, Shanahan went stopped playing Lance in spots.

Not only has Lance not had many opportunities, but as Ted mentions, against the Cardinals, Lance didn't have much help from his teammates. This was a game in which the 49ers played poorly on offense. Yet Lance kept the team close.

And let's not forget the offensive game plan in that first Arizona game. It was easily Shanahan's worst game plan ever. Lance ran the ball 16 times, most of those being designed run plays. My best guess is that Lance wasn't ready to operate the normal gameplan, or that Shanahan didn't believe he was ready. Either way, the play calling stunk. While we hope Lance has improved, we can also hope the same for his coach.

Additionally, we have to mention the game against the Houston Texans. It was late in the season, and the 49ers had to win the game to still have a chance to make it to the postseason. Lance had a rough first half but was great in the second half. He made huge strides from October to December. Consider this from our friend, Ted:

He holds on to the ball too long

Most rookie quarterbacks hold on to the ball too long. This is something Lance needs to get better at, though. That comes from experience, and experience comes from...stay with me...playing.

Just because Lance held on to the ball too long during his rookie season, when he barely played, doesn't mean he won't learn. As he plays more, understands the system more, and sees more from defenses, he will process more quickly and get rid of the ball fast enough.

Smith was the same way early in his career. He developed and became much better at getting the ball out. So did Young. Walsh would get angry at him for putting his head down and running too quickly. But he learned and got much better. Lance will, too.

His ESPN QBR is only 33.4 (ranking him 29th)

Sorry, I stopped reading at "ESPN."

By the way, his QB rating was 97.3, which isn't bad, especially for a rookie. And he looked better than any other rookie QB in 2021.

Wilson's rookie season ended with a QB rating of 69.7. His QBR was 28.2. Justin Fields' QB rating in 2021 was 73.2. His QBR was 26.4. Trevor Lawrence, the top pick in the 2021 draft, had a QB rating of 71.9 and a QBR of 33.5. Lance doesn't look so bad now, does he?

Truly we don't know how Trey Lance will fare. Some think he won't succeed. Some believe he will. But it's way too early to predict he will be a bust. Just like it's way too early to predict he'll be a Hall of Famer. Which is why I'm not ready to predict that—yet.

• Marc Adams
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