The NFL offseason craziness continued Wednesday as, out of the blue, the Kansas City Chiefs traded star receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins for a massive package of draft selections, which came just a few days after the Green Bay Packers traded their own star receiver, Davante Adams, to the Las Vegas Raiders.
In exchange for Hill, the Chiefs received a first-rounder (No. 29 overall), second-rounder (No. 50 overall), two fourth-rounders, and a sixth-rounder, eclipsing the haul that the Green Bay Packers obtained for Adams (a first-rounder and a second-rounder).
In addition to the trade, Hill received a record-breaking, four-year, $120 million extension with $72 million in total guarantees and $52 million guaranteed at signing.
However, when broken down, Hill's contract is essentially a four-year, $95 million deal, with the extension being a three-year, $75 million deal, as there's an out-clause prior to his age-32 season with minimal dead cap.
So, while it may seem like $30 million annually, Hill's extension essentially pays him $25 million per season over the course of three years, making it a very sensible deal for a player heading into his prime.
Hill's extension will not be the last for a high-caliber receiver this offseason, as there are four third-year receivers who are extension-eligible this offseason and are all deserving: Seattle's D.K. Metcalf, San Francisco's Deebo Samuel, Washington's Terry McLaurin, and Tennessee's A.J. Brown.
So, what does the Tyreek Hill trade and extension mean in regards to the 49ers' Deebo Samuel?
Extension
Hill's extension provides clarity regarding the wide receiver market after Davante Adams's five-year, $140 million deal, which in reality, isn't what it appears to be as well. Rather than it being a five-year deal for a 30-year old receiver, Adams's extension is essentially a three-year, $67.5 million deal with $65.67 million in total guarantees and $22.75 million guaranteed at signing, making it an annual average of $22.5 million a year.
Earlier this offseason, I gave my personal prediction on Deebo Samuel's potential contract extension, saying that the total money would be in the range of $112.5 - $120 million over a five-year period with San Francisco's regular opt-out clause after the third season.
Two-and-a-half months later, I'm sticking with my exact prediction, especially with the Hill and Adams deals now finalized, as they were expected to set the market, which Hill has currently done.
If the 49ers are the first team to the receiver-extension chase, I don't believe Samuel's contract should eclipse the $25 million annual average that Tyreek Hill will earn, but could come just above Davante Adams's $22.5 million range.
However, given the resumes of the receivers involved, Deebo Samuel's deal will likely come with fewer guarantees than either deal, although injury guarantees should be placed in the contract for the first two-to-three seasons, balancing out the contract to around $60-65 million in guarantees.
The opt-out after three years provides both Samuel and the 49ers with flexibility; if Samuel's injury concerns prove to be career-hampering, the 49ers can move on with minimal dead cap after the third season, saving them the financial burden of the five-year deal.
On the other hand, should Samuel continue to play at the high level he's capable of, he'd be in line for another extension at the peak of his prime, his age-29 season, giving him the best financial situation for the duration of his career.
Once again, I believe the 49ers should extend Samuel this offseason, given how valuable he is to their offense and given the current market value for wide receivers. If they elect to wait a season, they'd have to eclipse the value of the other three third-year receivers, along with Minnesota Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson, who's extension-eligible next offseason, which would force them to overpay for a valuable player.
Trade Value
Not only has the Tyreek Hill move set the market for contract extensions, but it has also provided clarity regarding the trade value of wide receivers, which is currently at an all-time high.
While it's unlikely, it'd be naive to dismiss the notion that moving Samuel isn't a possibility. The idea of a trade isn't a testament to the player, but rather the market for receivers, because currently, there's a crossroads in the NFL.
In the NFL Draft nowadays, receivers are constantly being pumped out, with as many as 15-20 starting-caliber options in the draft yearly, depreciating the value of receivers in today's NFL. At the same time, the high-caliber receivers that teams aren't thrilled to pay are getting exchanged for significant draft compensation, even at 30 years old.
The ramifications have already begun, as players like Amari Cooper, Odell Beckham Jr., Robert Woods, and Jarvis Landry have received little, if any, compensation in trade talks, causing them to hit the open market, lessening their value.
So, if the 49ers believe the price to extend Samuel is much too expensive for their budget, would the team consider cashing in on their star talent and receiving the maximum compensation possible while the receivers still have massive value?
There has been an established precedent for players in Samuel's position: Amari Cooper, Odell Beckham, Brandin Cooks, and Stefon Diggs were all traded due to financial reasons for significant compensation in return from their respective teams.
Additionally, there's an argument that Samuel could receive a similar package to that offered for Tyreek Hill, given his positional versatility, (current) cheap contract , and age, placing the 49ers in a prime position to upgrade at certain positions, or even package the compensation for other talented players at the mid-season point.
Now, should the 49ers do it? I'd advise against the decision, especially with a rookie quarterback under center and the uniqueness of a player of Samuel's caliber. Moreover, the 49ers aren't at a financial crossroads to the point where they'd necessarily have to heavily contemplate the move and have shown a capacity to extend their core pieces, dishing second contracts to tight end George Kittle, linebacker Fred Warner, defensive lineman Arik Armstead, and left tackle Trent Williams.
However, if the two sides are not able to reach an extension this offseason, then the possibility significantly increases, given preponderance of draft-eligible receivers, the pattern with Adams and Hill, the high price, and the fact that Samuel will already be 27 next season, meaning a five-year extension would place him well into his 30s.
Once again, I believe the 49ers should extend their star receiver this offseason, but in order to be in the best financial situation, they should do so sooner than later.