San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan and Los Angeles Rams head coach are friends off the field, but will face off against each other on the field Sunday in the NFC Championship Game, where the 49ers will have a chance to reach their second Super Bowl in three years.
Shanahan has dominated McVay in recent years, winning six straight against the Rams, regardless of who Los Angeles has had at quarterback, be it Jared Goff or Matthew Stafford.
Still, the Rams have been a dominant offense with McVay's coaching since he took over at the age of 32, which is why Los Angeles made a Super Bowl with Jared Goff, and have had winning seasons in each one of McVay's years as the head coach.
This year, while some stats may tell a different story, the Rams, in my opinion, have not yet untapped their offensive potential with the arrival of Matthew Stafford.
The Rams rank fifth in the NFL in passing yards per game, seventh in total yards per game, and third in passer rating, but their offense could be even more dominant.
Matthew Stafford is a bonafide top-ten quarterback, but his arrival in Los Angeles has significantly altered the Rams' offensive outlook, as Sean McVay has tried adapting to Stafford's ideal playstyle, rather than having Stafford operate under his system, which worked wonders for Jared Goff during his years as a Ram.
What exactly do I mean by that?
With Jared Goff from 2017-2020, the Rams ran play-action sets on 32% of dropbacks, which was the highest mark in the NFL for any team during that stretch.
However, in 2021, Matthew Stafford has thrown just 122 play-action passes on 601 total attempts per Pro Football Reference, good for 20.3% of his total workload, which is a significant decline from McVay's previous offenses.
Matthew Stafford's arrival in LA has changed one key facet of Sean McVay's gameplan: the play-action.
With Goff(2017-2020), the Rams ran play-action on 32% of dropbacks.
With Stafford, he's thrown 122 play-action passes on 601 attempts (20.3%).
Article tomorrow.#49wz
— Rohan Chakravarthi (@rohanSports27) January 29, 2022
Instead, the Rams have continued their high usage of empty sets, which has benefitted Stafford, but at the expense of Los Angeles's run-game, which struggled this year, ranking 25th in the NFL with 4.0 yards per carry and 24th with 99 rushing yards per game.
In 2020, the Rams ranked tenth in the NFL with 126.1 rush yards per game, along with 4.3 yards per carry, which both declined in 2021, despite the acquisition of Matthew Stafford, who proved to be a significant upgrade over Jared Goff, throwing for 4886 yards, 41 touchdowns, and 8.1 yards per attempt.
While Stafford has never been a high play-action usage quarterback, the increasing amount of empty sets, combined with the decrease in play-action, has hindered the Rams offense, because they rely on a balanced attack to most effectively function as an offense.
The offense is somewhat predictable, and it hurt Stafford as the season prolonged, as his turnover-worthy plays increased, leading to a league-leading 17 interceptions.
Now, can the Rams win with their current formula? Obviously. They have a high-caliber quarterback, enough top-tier receiving talent, and a top-ten offensive line unit that can overpower other teams offensively. But, is it the most effective way for this football team to win? I don't think so.
Fast-forward to the NFC Championship Game and the Rams are battling against a team that has consistently beaten them, regardless of their personnel.
How can the Rams place themselves to best compete against the 49ers? By utilizing play-action more effectively.
The 49ers have an elite-level defense, ranking third in total yards allowed while shutting down the likes of Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers over the last two weeks.
Their formula begins with their pass rush, which has five defenders with 6+ QB pressures: Arik Armstead(9 pressures), Samson Ebukam(8 pressures), Nick Bosa(6 pressures), D.J. Jones(6 pressures), and Charles Omenihu(6 pressures). To place that in perspective, no other team has more than two defenders with six or more quarterback pressures, per NFL Football Operations.
The @49ers pass rush has been formidable in the #NFLPlayoffs.
Five Niners defenders have 6+ QB pressures in the postseason. No other team has more than 2 players with 6+ QB pressures this postseason.#FTTB | via @NextGenStats pic.twitter.com/xVsu3PIAk4
— NFL Football Operations (@NFLFootballOps) January 29, 2022
More importantly, during San Francisco's Week 18 matchup against the Los Angeles Rams, the 49ers pressured Matthew Stafford a whopping 28 times, sacking him 5 times in the process.
While Stafford has played extremely well against the blitz, the 49ers generate consistent pressure without having to blitz, as they've pressured Stafford on 41% of his dropbacks this season, while blitzing on only 14% of those plays during the two games they've played in 2021.
In response, the Rams should utilize play-action more, making their offense less predictable, while moving Stafford into open space out of the pocket where he can make plays for his receivers against San Francisco's coverage. In addition, the increase of play-action would improve the effectiveness of Los Angeles's run game, which is a much-needed facet to maintain a balanced attack against this high-powered San Francisco defense.
While DeMeco Ryans has been a fantastic adjustor mid-game, as he was last weekend against Green Bay, increasing the amount of play-action would open up the playbook for Sean McVay, giving the Rams an added advantage at the most crucial stage of the playoffs.
