The San Francisco 49ers got off the schneid at home and back into the playoff hunt with a much-needed win over the division rival Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football. The Niners will now try to keep the momentum going as they head into a softer portion of the schedule, starting with the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 11. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Sunday, November 21st, 2021 at 10:00 am PT (FOX)
Where: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
Line: 49ers -6.5, over/under 45.5
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars lost by the score of 17-23 to division rival Indianapolis Colts in Week 10, though they covered the spread as 10.5 point underdogs.
After ten weeks, Jacksonville ranks 27th in total weighted DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at -20.0 percent, 24th in offensive DVOA at -9.6 percent with a 28th ranked offensive pass DVOA at -9.8 percent and 2nd ranked offensive rush DVOA at 7.7 percent. The Jaguars defense is rated 28th in defensive DVOA at 10.4 percent with a 31st rated defensive pass DVOA at 31.6 percent and 7th rated defensive rush DVOA at -15.9 percent.
Trevor Lawrence is 29th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at -203 and 29th in total QBR at 34.9 with 8 touchdown passes, 8 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost and a 58.2 completion percentage. Jacksonville's offensive line is 5th in run blocking with 4.70 adjusted line yards and 9th in pass protection with an adjusted sack rate of 5.2 percent. The Jaguars' defensive line is 14th against the run with 4.19 adjusted line yards and 31st with an adjusted sack rate of 4.3 percent.
The Jaguars have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) of -6.4 and are 4-5 ATS and 2-7 to the over/under.
Dakota Allen is questionable for Week 11.
San Francisco 49ers
The Niners dominated the Los Angeles Rams from start to finish and on both sides of the ball in what could be described as their most complete performance of the season in a 31-10 drubbing.
San Francisco ranks 6th in total weighted DVOA at 18.5 percent, 3rd in offensive DVOA at 15.0 percent with a 5th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 34.7.percent and 7th ranked offensive rush DVOA at 1.6 percent. The 49er defense is rated 13th in defensive DVOA at -0.6 percent with a 20th rated defensive pass DVOA at 13.5 percent and 5th rated defensive rush DVOA at -19.9 percent.
Jimmy Garoppolo is 9th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 470 and 11th in total QBR at 57.1 with 10 touchdown passes, 5 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost, and a 67.3 completion percentage. San Francisco's offensive line is 23rd in run blocking with 4.05 adjusted line yards and 16th in pass protection with an adjusted sack rate of 6.2 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 5th against the run with 3.61 adjusted line yards and 26th with an adjusted sack rate of 5.8 percent.
The 49ers have an ESPN FPI of 1.5 and are 3-6 ATS and 5-4 to the over/under.
The last three weeks in the NFL have exemplified how volatile and unpredictable the outcomes can be, as ugly, buy-low underdogs have not only covered spreads but won games outright. Teams that appeared to be world beaters one week have soiled the bed the next, reminding us that this is a week to week league and cautioning against letting recency bias sway bettors into perceiving that what happened last week might be repeated the next.
Similarly, the San Francisco 49ers have not covered the spread in consecutive weeks in 2021, displaying a zigzag pattern of covering every other week since coming out of their Week 6 bye. And after their most complete performance of the season in the national spotlight, we are hesitant to assume that the Niners will string together back-to-back complete performances and would not feel comfortable laying almost a touchdown on the road.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are perceived to be one of the worst teams in the NFL and could be considered a buy-low team, but they have quietly outperformed expectations in covering two straight, including a 9-6 victory over the much heralded Buffalo Bills as 14.5 point underdogs in Week 9, and we could only consider taking the points with the home underdog if forced to pick a side.
The Jaguars rank 2nd in offensive rush DVOA and will no doubt lean on the run game as much as possible, and even if Elijah Mitchell is out for San Francisco, we anticipate that Kyle Shanahan will continue to anchor his offense off of the run even if it is with Jeff Wilson Jr.
With both teams leaning on the run game and both featuring rushing defenses that rank in the top ten, points could end up being at a premium, and San Francisco runs the risk of coming out a bit flat after a huge win and a shorter week with travel to the east coast. The final score has gone under the total in three of four home games and in four consecutive weeks for Jacksonville, and we see that continuing in Week 11.
Pick: Under 45.5
2021 Season ATS: 4-5
Poll
What is your best bet for 49ers at Jaguars on 11/21/21?
49ers -6.5
Jaguars +6.5
Over 45.5
Under 45.5
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Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 83.7, 64 snaps
George Kittle, TE, 83.0, 57 snaps
Trent Williams. LT, 80.1, 62 snaps
Charlie Woerner, TE, 76.0, 13 snaps
Daniel Brunskill, RG, 74.8, 64 snaps
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Josh Norman, CB, 89.6, 37 snaps
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