ESPN writer and analyst Mike Clay took a stab at projecting the top rookie stats for the upcoming season. It's worth noting that the NFL expanded the schedule to include a 17th game for each team. That could mean more potential yards, touchdowns, and everything else for players. Although, don't expect too many rookies in the running to break any NFL records.
Clay projected the passing statistics for the rookie quarterbacks. While the San Francisco 49ers have declared that the plan is to enter Week 1 with Jimmy Garoppolo as the team's starter, the veteran quarterback has only been able to stay healthy for one full season. He has missed 23 games over the past three seasons, including 10 last year. It's not inconceivable to imagine that rookie quarterback Trey Lance, the No. 3 overall pick, might earn some playing time in 2021.
"These team and player projections are my own," Clay explained, "compiled through a thorough process that is both quantitative (league, team, coaching and player trends) and qualitative (projected depth chart placement and role)."
Clay ranked the top 5 rookie quarterbacks by the passing yards he projects for each. At the top of the list are Trevor Lawrence of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Zach Wilson of the New York Jets. Both are favored to start Week 1. Just ahead of Lance is Justin Fields, who could unseat Andy Dalton fairly quickly with the Chicago Bears.
Lance ranks fourth with 2,464 projected passing yards and 16 touchdown passes. Behind the 49ers rookie is the player many in the media felt would be headed to the Bay Area with the No. 3 overall pick — Mac Jones of the New England Patriots.
Below are Clay's top 5 quarterback projections.
- Lawrence: 4,269 yards, 23 pass TDs
- Wilson: 3,993 yards, 20 pass TDs
- Fields: 3,187 yards, 18 pass TDs
- Lance: 2,464 yards, 16 pass TDs
- Jones: 1,410 yards, 7 pass TDs
Clay predicts that Lance will overtake Garoppolo for the starting job in Week 8, giving the rookie 11 games to earn those statistics. The ESPN analyst also predicts 437 rushing yards for Lance.
San Francisco's third-round pick, Trey Sermon, just missed the top five for rushing yards by a rookie running back. Clay has him gaining 405 rushing yards and showing some versatility by adding 153 receiving yards.
Wrote Clay: "And Sermon's 2021 usage will depend on the health of Raheem Mostert in San Francisco."