Cornerback Richard Sherman doesn't expect to return to the San Francisco 49ers in 2021. He is one of 40 Niners playing on the final year of their deals. Twenty-seven of those players will be unrestricted free agents.
"I know the salary-cap deal first hand, dealing with the [NFLPA], dealing with the league, and I know their salary-cap situation," Sherman recently explained. "... there's 40 free agents, and they'll probably have $30 million or less in cap (space). They've got to bring back Trent, who costs over $20 million. They have to pay Fred, who costs $18 million-plus a year. And anybody who knows the situation understands that."
David Lombardi of The Athletic wrote up an excellent breakdown of the 49ers' upcoming salary-cap situation. He examines how the team might wheel and deal to stay under a salary cap that is expected to drop from $198.2 million to what Lombardi estimates, for the purpose of his breakdown, might be around $185 million.
Where does this drop in available per-team spending leave the 49ers? They may find themselves with about $38 million in 2021 salary-cap space. That number comes from the $28.5 million they are estimated to have in 2021, plus about $6 million in carryover from unmet incentives due to injuries this season and about $3 million in 2020 cap carryover.
That comes out to $37.5 million, which Lombardi rounds to about $38 million in salary-cap space.
Below are the top five players when it comes to salary-cap hit. The list provides their estimated 2021 base salaries and estimated cap hits, according to Spotrac.
- Jimmy Garoppolo, $24.1 million, $26.4 million
- Dee Ford, $15.15 million, $20.79 million
- Arik Armstead, $6.65 million, $12.5 million
- Weston Richburg, $7.85 million, $11.4 million
- Jimmie Ward, $8.4 million, $11 million
Right off the bat, Lombardi assumes two of the names above will not be with the 49ers in 2021. They are defensive end Dee Ford and center Weston Richburg. Releasing Ford would save $6.43 million, according to Spotrac's roster management tool. Parting ways with Richburg would save nearly $3 million. Going by another salary cap data site, Over the Cap, the offensive lineman's savings would be even higher. Either way, there is money to be saved there.
The most obvious name from the list above is quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. However, while his deal was the richest ever at the time of its signing, his average salary of $27.5 million now ranks as the 12th highest among quarterbacks, so it's not an absurd amount if he figures into Kyle Shanahan's plans.
As has been reported over and over, the 49ers can part ways with Garoppolo without much of a salary-cap impact. However, the savings would likely be immediately eaten up should the team replace the quarterback with a big-name free agent.
A rookie quarterback would offer significant savings, but San Francisco's brain trust would need to make sure the team around him is good enough to overcome a rookie starter's growing pains. The 49ers might offset some of that by signing a bridge quarterback at a lesser cost than a bigger-name free agent.
Then, as Sherman pointed out, you have the necessary lucrative deals for Williams and Warner, which will quickly eat into any available money, and the 49ers must allot enough to sign their 2021 draft class.
It will be interesting to see how general manager John Lynch and EVP of football operations Paraag Marathe manage the upcoming offseason.
Click here to read Lombardi's impressive and more in-depth breakdown. A subscription to The Athletic is required.