The San Francisco 49ers would own the No. 1 overall pick in next year's draft if the season ended after Week 14. Of course, that would leave NFL coaches and players wondering why they don't get to play the final three weeks of the season.
San Francisco has been holding onto the top spot for four straight weeks, and Sunday's victory over the Denver Broncos didn't change anything. That's because the Oakland Raiders, the other two-win team entering Week 14, also won.
Now, three 3-10 teams remain. The 49ers have the benefit of owning a weaker strength of schedule in games played so far, which is used as a tiebreaker between teams with matching records, compared to the Arizona Cardinals and Raiders.
Oakland's upset win over the Pittsburgh Steelers dropped it a spot to No. 3 in the draft order — again, if the season ended today. Arizona leapfrogs both Oakland and the New York Jets for the No. 2 spot while San Francisco remains at No. 1.
Monday night's game between the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks had no impact on the top of the draft order, but with three weeks remaining, things could change quickly.
The 49ers still have the Seattle Seahawks, Chicago Bears, and Los Angeles Rams remaining on their schedule, and that's where things get complicated. All three of those opponents are well above .500, which means San Francisco's strength of schedule is about to see a boost throughout the next three weeks.
The combined records of the 49ers' remaining opponents (28-11) place their combined winning percentage at a .718. Even if San Francisco loses to the Seahawks on Sunday, it's not necessarily a full benefit when it comes to their draft status. Seattle's record will improve, which will impact the 49ers' strength of schedule.
Of course, this is all assuming the Cardinals and Raiders lose out.
Arizona has the Atlanta Falcons, Rams, and Seahawks remaining on their schedule. The combined records of those opponents (23-16) place those teams' winning percentage at .590.
Oakland has the Cincinnati Bengals, Broncos, and Kansas City Chiefs remaining. The combined records of those opponents (22-17) place those teams at .564.
San Francisco has the stronger opponents down the stretch, and it's not even close. In the end, this doesn't mean a whole lot right now. How high the 49ers will actually select will be determined by the rest of the season, their final record, and the final records of a select few other teams.
Below is the current draft order, based on playoff seeding (21-32), record, and strength of schedule (SOS) for all 32 first-round spots if the season ended today. Of course, the order of the bottom 12 teams will eventually be determined by the playoff results and Super Bowl winner.
| Team | W-L | SOS | |
| 1 | San Francisco 49ers | 3-10 | .485 |
| 2 | Arizona Cardinals | 3-10 | .515 |
| 3 | Oakland Raiders | 3-10 | .568 |
| 4 | New York Jets | 4-9 | .479 |
| 5 | Atlanta Falcons | 4-9 | .524 |
| 6 | Buffalo Bills | 4-9 | .527 |
| 7 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 4-9 | .541 |
| 8 | New York Giants | 5-8 | .491 |
| 9 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5-8 | .503 |
| 10 | Detroit Lions | 5-8 | .527 |
| 11 | Cincinnati Bengals | 5-8 | .556 |
| 12 | Green Bay Packers | 5-7-1 | .485 |
| 13 | Cleveland Browns | 5-7-1 | .533 |
| 14 | Carolina Panthers | 6-7 | .456 |
| 15 | Washington Redskins | 6-7 | .488 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 6-7 | .488 | |
| 17 | Denver Broncos | 6-7 | .547 |
| 18 | Indianapolis Colts | 7-6 | .456 |
| 19 | Miami Dolphins | 7-6 | .476 |
| 20 | Tennessee Titans | 7-6 | .521 |
| 21 | Minnesota Vikings | 6-6-1 | -- |
| 22 | Baltimore Ravens | 7-6 | -- |
| 23 | Seattle Seahawks | 8-5 | -- |
| 24 | Los Angeles Chargers | 10-3 | -- |
| 25 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 7-5-1 | -- |
| 26 | Oakland Raiders (from Cowboys) | 8-5 | -- |
| 27 | Oakland Raiders (from Bears) | 9-4 | -- |
| 28 | Houston Texans | 9-4 | -- |
| 29 | New England Patriots | 9-4 | -- |
| 30 | Los Angeles Rams | 11-2 | -- |
| 31 | Green Bay Packers (from Saints) | 11-2 | -- |
| 32 | Kansas City Chiefs | 11-2 | -- |
* 21-32 based on projected playoff seeding, not record or strength of schedule
** Trades show the record of the origin team