Jimmy Garoppolo's small sample size as a starting quarterback has been one of the biggest reasons for critics to argue against potential success in 2018. Sure, the San Francisco 49ers quarterback only has seven starts (about six-and-a-half games and five starts with the Niners) to his resume, but he has won each of them and did so last season with a team that started 1-10.
Critics continue to note that Garoppolo doesn't yet have enough experience to predict sustained success in 2018. The latest to do so is ESPN analyst Seth Walder. During a feature looking at "bold predictions" for the upcoming season, he uses ESPN's NFL Football Power Index (FPI) to argue that Garoppolo won't even win more games than he loses.
What is the FPI? It is a prediction system for the NFL developed by ESPN's analytics team, of which Walder is a part.
"FPI knows that while Garoppolo has been incredible (career Total QBR of 77.8)," writes Walder, "the sample is so small that it's only reasonable to bet that he won't be quite the same player in the long run."
While Walder notes that ESPN's FPI ranks Garoppolo as a "well above average option" among starting quarterbacks, he also points to a feature by Bill Barnwell, which examines what is known and unknown about the 49ers signal caller.
It is important to note that ESPN's FPI projects the 49ers to finish 9-7, the same record projected for the Los Angeles Rams. Although, it also predicts a 31.5 percent chance that the 49ers will win the NFC West (46.5 to make the playoffs and 2.9 to win the Super Bowl) compared to the Rams' 44.8 percent chance (58.5 for the playoffs, 6.0 for the Super Bowl).
"But because of the aforementioned small sample — and therefore the uncertainty about Garoppolo's ability going forward — the model prefers players like (Carson) Wentz and Dak Prescott, who have lower career Total QBRs than Garoppolo but have a narrower range of outcomes," Walder adds.
The ESPN analyst also makes other "bold" predictions such as a Super Bowl rematch between last year's participants and the Buffalo Bills being awful.
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