Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo averaged 308.4 yards per game in his five starts for the San Francisco 49ers last season. That's a higher average than names like Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, and Drew Brees. If you take Garoppolo's numbers in those games and use them to project a 16-game season, you get 4,934 passing yards with 22 touchdowns.
Of course, Garoppolo's sample size was smaller than the names listed above. There is no telling how the 49ers quarterback would have performed over a 16-game season last year. That's what makes him so intriguing heading into 2018. Garoppolo remains a wildcard within head coach Kyle Shanahan's offense. All the signs point up, and with that, the expectations for the quarterback are high. Maybe not 4,934 passing yards high, but high nonetheless.
ESPN fantasy football analyst Mike Clay provided the over/unders for players within each NFL team's offense. So far, two 49ers have made the list — Garoppolo and running back Jerick McKinnon. Receivers will be looked at on Wednesday and tight ends on Thursday.
Clay set the over/under on passing yards for Garoppolo at 4,354 yards — a number that in 2017 would have ranked fourth in the league among quarterbacks. That would indeed be an impressive year out of Garoppolo, who finally had an offseason's worth of study time with the 49ers playbook.
4,354 passing yards average out to about 272 yards per game, which is significantly fewer than his 2017 average but still respectable. Nick Wagoner of ESPN, however, believes Garoppolo can do better and went with the over.
"In five starts last year, Garoppolo averaged about 308 passing yards per game, a pace that would easily eclipse this number if he held it up over a 16-game season," wrote Wagoner. "That might be asking a bit too much in his first season as a full-time starter but to reach this mark, it would mean averaging 272 yards a game, a number that seems feasible for Garoppolo now that he has a full offseason under his belt to learn more of coach Kyle Shanahan's offense and develop further rapport with his pass-catchers."
Then there is McKinnon, who joined the 49ers as a free agent on a four-year deal signed in March. Clay set the running back's over/under for scrimmage yards (rushing and passing combined) at 1,283. That number seems about right to Wagoner, who this time went with the under — barely.
"McKinnon has never had more than the 991 scrimmage yards he had last season," wrote Wagoner, "though he also has never been his team's primary back as he is now in San Francisco. But while McKinnon will be the starter and get plenty of opportunities, Matt Breida can't be overlooked and will get his share of touches to complement McKinnon.
"Look for McKinnon to easily surpass his career high in receiving yards (set at 421 last year) and finish with something near 600 in that category to go with another 600 or so as a rusher. This number actually feels about right, but we'll err on the under just based on the fact that McKinnon will have other backs taking some opportunities away."
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