Draft Class Review (2010 - 2014)

Originally posted by NCommand:
I'd go higher on Dontae Johnson too b/c he's actually started for us in his rookie year and from what round? He's played well and will be starting again this week.

Which game did he start?

Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:
The fact that Vic started Ward immediately after coming back from injury even though we have Cully, Cox and Brock, speaks volumes to me. Ward occasionally gets beat, but he's playing against most teams most dangerous weapons. Personally, I thought having him on Jimmy Graham was a mistake. Flat out size mismatch. Same with Brandon Marshall. He'll take his lumps, but he's holding his own. I'm not sure what his future position will be with Bethea playing so well.

So much of this. CB is the type of position that is thankless unless you're such a standout shut down corner or a guy that gets a lot of picks it's hard to be recognized as a good corner. Ward has been very good, the times he's been beaten badly, I've questioned the matchup each time. I like Ward a lot.

Originally posted by matt49er:
Love this thread, good job OP, this was obviously a lot of work. I think we're being a bit too hard on 2013, Vance is an awesome blocking TE who plays some FB as well. I know he's dropped some balls & fumbled, but he's simply not getting any passes thrown his way, he's simply not a part of the game plan at all. It wouldn't surprise me if VD's not here in a year or 2 and Vance makes a huge leap as a pass catcher. I also refuse to believe Tank is just a 2/10. He played a hand full of snaps last week and registered a QB pressure on just 2 pass rush attempts, the kid's gonna be good.

I agree that Vance and Tank have a lot more potential than what they've shown. I'm not grading on potential or "gonna be". I'm grading on what they've contributed so far.

I would give Cam Johnson a better grade too. We did manage to trade him for another pick. Also, part of the challenge that the 49ers have is they had too many picks, with little chance for all to make the team. So if a 7th rounder doesn't make the team, but does well elsewhere, I find it hard to fault the draft. On the other hand, the draft pick didn't help the 49ers...

I THINK YOU DID A GOOD JOB WITH THIS, THIS YEARS DRAFT WILL GO DOWN AS A GREAT ONE WHEN ITS ALL SAID AND DONE!

I think Baalke's drafts (minus 2012... even at time thought it was down compared to normal) looked good on paper it's just that this team is so deep guys had a hard time cracking the starting lineup. I also think the coaches haven't done the best job developing guys mainly on the offensive side. As for your grades I'd change a lot of them but it's hard to grade since there are about 100 variables you can consider. Our injured player strategy hasn't worked out maybe time to change them but really can't fault Baalke for wanting to take guys who should be going a lot higher but fell due to injuries. Sure we were stacked but turns out we could have used the help now. I still don't fault him but hope we change that strategy since we have more needs this upcoming year than we have had in many years due to free agency and injuries. Anyways, Baalke has done a nice job drafting and has worked the board beautifully imo. Of course he has had misses but he's a lot better than most gm's in the league. Go through old drafts especially the first round it's full of busts. Some people here act like Baalke is the only one who busts and because has had a few he's a bad gm. Again, look through drafts year after year it's loaded with busts very few guys perform well over a long period of time. Also, people have to take into account how well Baalke does in free agency. He has left overpaid guys go left and right and they go on to do nothing with their new team. Then continually brings in bargain FA's who perform well.

Edit: And I touched on this early but look at how stacked he made our team for 2, 3, 4 years and yet most of our rookies still make the team and contribute some way. Imagine if we put some of these guys on our 2004 2005 team... guys like Patton, Ellington, Tank, Dial, Hyde, etc instead of sitting on the bench would be starting or at least getting a lot more playing time.

To summarize, they got 12 contributors out of 4 drafts, not bad, considering the franchise qb they have sought since Steve Young has arrived.

A. Davis
Iupati
M. Martin
Kilgore

Aldon Smith
Borland
Bowman

CK7
Hyde
Miller

Eric Reid
Culliver

So the team is great at draft OL, safeties, and RB
The team is lacking at drafting DL, WR, CB
Question out on TE

Here is an article from 09-13 so 1 year of mccloughan. we are ranked 3rd.
http://q.usatoday.com/2014/05/07/nfl-draft-best-teams-seattle-seahawks-san-francisco-49ers-tennessee-titans-new-england-patriots/

3rd
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000163276/article/ranking-the-5-nfl-teams-that-are-best-at-drafting

2nd, bleacher report which i know some dont like
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1579957-who-is-the-best-drafting-team-in-the-nfl/page/7

3rd one mentioned
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/05/01/which-nfl-teams-have-been-best-draft-lately/H5mBGyXErkXptvVPFzg9TM/story.html

I just want to see them target at least one receiver who is quick, aggressive and runs at a solid, breakaway 4.3 next draft. Every draft there are two or three players like that in the first few rounds. I want someone in the receiving corps who scares corners and makes safeties shade to their side of the field when they're lined up wide.

Another way to look at this reveals Baalke is very weak on drafting offensive skill players. I'm not giving him credit for Kaep, because that was apparently all Harbaugh. Not sure how much he deserves for Bruce Miller, either, a defensive end in college. So, 2010-2014, QBs, RBs, WRs drafted, 12 picks, not much to show.
Anthony Dixon --on the Bills
Kyle Williams -- fumbles and surgeries, too small.
Kendall Hunter --good pick but injured, maybe too small.
Ron Johnson --um, nope.
AJ Jenkins --urp.
LaMichael James --big whiff.
Vance McDonald --pretty good player.
Quinton Patton --meh so far.
Marcus Lattimore --retired.
BJ Daniels --nope.
Carlos Hyde --one clear winner.
Bruce Ellington --nothing special yet.

Originally posted by rivercity:

Another way to look at this reveals Baalke is very weak on drafting offensive skill players. I'm not giving him credit for Kaep, because that was apparently all Harbaugh. Not sure how much he deserves for Bruce Miller, either, a defensive end in college. So, 2010-2014, QBs, RBs, WRs drafted, 12 picks, not much to show.
Anthony Dixon --on the Bills
Kyle Williams -- fumbles and surgeries, too small.
Kendall Hunter --good pick but injured, maybe too small.
Ron Johnson --um, nope.
AJ Jenkins --urp.
LaMichael James --big whiff.
Vance McDonald --pretty good player.
Quinton Patton --meh so far.
Marcus Lattimore --retired.
BJ Daniels --nope.
Carlos Hyde --one clear winner.
Bruce Ellington --nothing special yet.

Boobie: developed into a good player.
Williams: a 6th round pick
Hunter: the injury is Baalke's fault? Don't see why you should say he is too smallJohnson: 6th round pick.
Jenkins and LMJ: busts. It happens to every team. Here, people won't let it go.
McDonald: so far so good
Patton: to early to assess
Lattimore: a gamble.
Daniels: a 7th round pick who is still with Seattle. So any failing here is with coaching not the GM
Hyde: early but looking good
Ellington: too early..

Interesting to see how you blame Baalke for Daniels but won't credit him for Miller. Seeing his potential at a different position says more about a GM but doesn't fit in with your prejudice. And you will allow no credit for Kaepernick.

So to summarise, we have the famous Jenkins and LMJ busts, a couple of really low picks that didn't stick, Boobie who is still going strong, Hunter who has looked good but is injured and a couple of guys who are still under development.

Or to put it another way, he has produced the quarterback, the fullback, tight ends, a couple of young receivers who are developing behind the experienced receivers Baalke has picked up on trades.

So exactly what is it, in the real world, you are expecting from your GM? He drafts 6th and 7th round picks who don't make it, although sometimes they do with other teams. He has the famous two busts. No other GM in the NFL ever drafts bust picks. One way or another he has filled the roster with very good players, some of them like Miller way better than we had any right to expect.

Very weak on drafting offensive skill players? No. He is amongst the best and when you include trades etc, he has done an excellent job. We do seem to favour D in the early draft as well as some hogs. I don't have a problem with that but I don't believe that should be spun to produce an unfounded criticism.

Originally posted by sspiker:

Originally posted by NCommand:
I'd go higher on Dontae Johnson too b/c he's actually started for us in his rookie year and from what round? He's played well and will be starting again this week.

Which game did he start?

Was it the Denver game? I use the term "start" loosely b/c even Ward is a "starter" in the slot. So like this upcoming game, he won't start per se but when Cox slides over to the slot, Johnson will come in and play outside CB and given how often the Giants will be in 3 and 4 WR sets, he'll probably play 70% of the snaps as a starter. And he'll remain this way as long as Brock, Ward and Cook are out (Cook's out for the year already and neither Brock nor Ward can stay healthy at all).

Originally posted by sspiker:
Taking a mid-season look back at the last five drafts and what we've gotten out of them. For each one, I'm assigning a grade on their overall contributions to the team on a 1-10 scale. Obviously the more recent draft picks are not set in stone, and there's still room for improvement (or drop-off).

This scale IS relative to where they were drafted, but is NOT relative to other players in the draft (i.e., comparing Aldon Smith to JJ Watt). I'm also not docking guys for injury, big or small.

For me, this was mostly an exercise in properly judging the 2013 Draft Class. The results? Not great. Take a look for yourself:

2010:

(1) Anthony Davis: 8/10 pretty darn good when healthy. still VERY young

One of the more solid RTs in the league and up until this year very durable. Doesn't always play up to 1st round billing for an OL and gives up cringe-worthy pressure at inopportune moments (see: 2013 NFCCG) but I'm judging on the whole body of work.

(1) Mike Iupati: 8/10


A Pro-Bowl guard with chronic pass protection issues, he's still met or exceeded expectations for being one of the top guards in his class. While I don't think he has a future with the team, that doesn't factor into his contributions to the team.

(2) Taylor Mays: 2/10

Was shuttled off to Cincy for a 7th-round pick after a year. Made a few plays and started for us. Also rid us of Michael Lewis. That deserves at least a 2.

(3) NaVarro Bowman: 10/10

No explanation necessary.

(6) Anthony Dixon: 8/10

Good short-yardage back and great special teams player; never a liability on the field and could be counted on to do what was asked of him, which is all more than you hope to get out of a 6th round pick.

(6) Nate Byham: 5/10 6th round pick still in the league with a distinct skill set. Good value

Average blocking TE. Still in the league (Patriots, for those curious).

(6) Kyle Williams: 5/10

Perhaps I'm being too harsh for the 2011 NFCCG. 6th round WR who was on the team until late last year.

(7) Phillip Adams: 10/10 7th round starter? GREAT pick. Injuries kept him from making his mark here. Loved his potential

Never made significant contributions to the team but is a low-end NFL starting CB, which shows how great we are at finding them in the draft.

2010 Draft Overall: 8/10

Bowman alone makes this draft one of the better ones, but two OL picks in the 1st round set the foundation for 3 dominant seasons of play.

2011:

(1) Aldon Smith: 9/10

I'm not holding injuries against players but I will hold off-field issues against players. Still, one of the elite players in the league which is what you want for the #7 pick.

(2) Colin Kaepernick: 10/10

I'm giving this a 10 because we got a franchise QB in the 2nd round, which is rare.

(3) Chris Culliver: 7/10

Solid starter, played his worst game in the Super Bowl. Still improving.

(4) Kendall Hunter: 9/10

One of the best back-up RBs in the league and a constant contributor.

(5) Daniel Kilgore: 9/10

Was playing great before the injury. We got a starter in the 5th round and then were able to sign him to an inexpensive extension. That's the 49er way.

(6) Ron Johnson: 1/10

Can't get a rating if you don't see the field.

(6) Colin Jones: 5/10

Played good ST and we re-couped our draft pick.

(7) Bruce Miller: 10/10

No explanation necessary

(7) Mike Person: 5/10 7th rounder still in the league can't be less than a 5, IMO

Still in the league, last time I checked.

(7) Curtis Holcomb: 1/10

Not still in the league.

2011 Draft Overall: 10/10

Look at the scores for the individual picks. This is an epic draft class, one of the league's best in the past decade.

2012:

(1) A.J. Jenkins: 1/10

Didn't catch a pass.

(2) LaMichael James: 2/10

I'll give him a bump for the KO return @NE and his NFCCG TD run. The speed of the NFL caught up to him.

(4) Joe Looney: 7/10 should have started this year. Dude looks good. Not his fault our coaches went back to Boone

Only player still on the team. Decent fill-in starter but many starting guards can be found in the 4th round and he projects low on the depth chart.

(5) Darius Fleming: 1/10

Not holding the injury against him but never contributed to the team.

(6) Trenton Robinson: 5/10 was quality depth for a couple years. That's good value at the end of a draft.

(6) Jason Slowey: 1/10

(7) Cam Johnson: 1/10

2012 Draft Overall: 3/10 still REALLY bad, but some of these guys were good players who couldn't get past the depth on this roster

Following one of the best classes is one of the worst. Having only a backup guard drafted in the 4th round is a major swing-and-miss.

2013:

(1) Eric Reid: 8/10


Has met expectations of a safety we traded up to get. Pro Bowl caliber and potential future leader of the defense.

(2) Tank Carradine: 2/10

This has the potential to go up, but you can't contribute if you're not on the field.

(2) Vance McDonald: 5/10

Drafted to be a pass-catcher, he's actually one of the better run blockers in the league. Still, you expect more out of a 2nd rounder.

(3) Corey Lemonier: 5/10 One good year of pressure from a third round pick is at least a 5/10. Pressure is tough to get, and he supplied it when we DESPERATELY needed it.

Showed a little bit of spark last year but none this year. Can't see how he figures into future plans.

(4) Quinton Patton: 5/10 looks good whenever he sees the field (admittedly not much) caught behind impressive vet depth

Has a lot of room to bump this up if/when our WR corps becomes less crowded.

(4) Marcus Lattimore: 1/10

Sorry to give a harsh grade, but never contributed. This is why drafting red-shirt players happens with later picks, because there is a risk and Lattimore's case is that downside.

(5) Quinton Dial: 7/10

Good value for the 5th round as a spot starter, and has the potential to grow into a larger role down the line.

(6) Nick Moody: 6/10 solid ST contributor near the end of the draft. That's good value.

Special teams player and not a standout one at that. Can't see how he makes the field as a defender.

(7) BJ Daniels: 5/10 7th rounder, dude. 7th rounder

Exciting preseason player but that's it.

(7) Carter Bykowski: 4/10 ditto

He's still on the team so he's obviously showed something. I have high hopes he can be a swing tackle of the future.

(7) Marcus Cooper: 10/10 a starter for any team in the 7th round is a great pick

Great contributor, just not to our team.

2013 Draft Overall: 5/10 I won't offer a changed grade, but it's too early to give up on this draft, IMO. It took RayMac 3 years to transition from 4-3 to 3-4 technique, and he's been an important piece of the defense ever since. Tank improves this score, IMO. Patton will be a factor next year, IMO. Very early on this draft, and I still think it will be impressive.

It's time to give up the dream that this was a great draft. How many players can we expect to be solid performers in the future? Reid, maybe Dial, and McDonald as a blocking TE. The hopes that this score might improve is if Carradine, Patton, and Bykowski show us anything. Could easily improve in the future, but as of now this was so-so.

2014:

(1) Jimmie Ward: 7/10 Nickle is the toughest position in the secondary. He has only been beat when the safety support fails to show up, or he gives up an insane size disatvantage.


Plays a thankless role and has room to grow, but for a 1st round pick expectations are higher.

(2) Carlos Hyde: 8/10

Only getting dinged because the league has proven you can get great RBs in late rounds, but still, he's met expectations so far and has a bright future.

(3) Marcus Martin: 8/10

Getting a starting center in the 3rd round is great value. This grade is based off a very small sample size, but his contributions so far have met or exceeded what he's been asked to do.

(3) Chris Borland: 8/10

This will be a 10/10 if he sustains this level of productivity. Doesn't seem right to give him the same grade as Bowman after just two games, but it's looking like outstanding production out of the 3rd round.

(3) Brandon Thomas: N/A

Injury so can't be rated yet.

(4) Bruce Ellington: 7/10 looks good at WR whenever he's on the field; good PR, reliable PR who is still learning to see the broken field

Has been an average returner and hasn't seen the field much on offense. Potential is there but the contributions so far are average for the 4th round.

(4) Dontae Johnson: 7/10 done nothing but perform when he sees the field

Again, average production out of the 4th round.

(5) Aaron Lynch: 10/10 this much talent production in the 5TH ROUND??

Great to see this level of contribution out of a 5th round pick. Right now he's only a pass-rusher but that's all he's been asked to do. Could grow into a 10/10.

(5) Keith Reaser: N/A

(6) Kenneth Acker: N/A

(7) Kaleb Ramsey: N/A

(7) Trey Millard: N/A

2014 Draft Overall: 7/10 it's too early for me to offer a changed grade, but My numbers tilt more towards 8 or 9 so far, and I believe in Millard, Acker, and Reaser. This draft should be another 10 in 3 years.

I'm giving this a decent score with plenty of room to grow. Sustained production from the linebackers could push this up to an 8. More out of Ward could make this a 9, and even minor contributions from the IR squad could make this a 10.

Thanks for doing all this work. I added some ideas, for the purpose of discussion. I fully understand that you stated repeatedly that scores are subject to change.

I don't understand marking a draft pick down for the player leaving in FA. If the talent and production are there, the pick was good, IMO. Did we do a good job of evaluating our own roster? That's a different discussion. I also think there should be a scaled-back expectation, based on the round someone is taken. A quality back-up taken in the 1st is a poor pick, but a quality backup taken in the 5th or later is a BIG hit.

Originally posted by crake49:
I just want to see them target at least one receiver who is quick, aggressive and runs at a solid, breakaway 4.3 next draft. Every draft there are two or three players like that in the first few rounds. I want someone in the receiving corps who scares corners and makes safeties shade to their side of the field when they're lined up wide.

Why? We have those guys every year but don't use them like that. It's a myth in this scheme. We've had Lockette, Ginn, Moss, Ellington, Moore, VD, Lloyd (grea deep threat despite lack of 4.3 speed), etc. To counter, according to Lynch, the Saints install 10-12 deep "shots" per game in every single game plan, every single week. Now, ask yourself, how often do we take "shots?"

for defense of 2012, James, Robinson and Cam were only pushed out b/c we have great depth in those areas.

Giving Cam a 1/10 isn't fair when he made the team his rookie year