OUR PASSING GAME---ANOTHER LOOK

Originally posted by buck:

Originally posted by thl408:
buck, can you provide a chart similar to the one above that lists targets and completions for the first half of 12-13, when Alex was QB (only games where he started and finished)? I feel that is the real passing offense that Harbaugh wants to use, or what is closest to it. The reason I say 12-13 when Alex was QB is because by then Alex had a full year with two offseasons preparing as the starter (2011 semi-locked out offseason, all of the offseason leading up to 12-13). That's the best time span I can think of where the 49er QB had a good grasp of what Harbaugh wanted to do.

What I saw was a very nice distribution on WR receptions, but I never went into targets. I don't know if you are able to separate Alex's starts from Kap's starts in 12-13, but I do know that when Kap became starter, Crabs was the man that got a huge amount of targets, so we can't use 12-13's end of season numbers since that includes Alex's and Kap's totals.

I am not sure that I want to do that.

I will not do anything that continues what I consider to an inane and dead Alex vs Collin debate.

But, I will check into the possibilities.

It's not taboo to discuss Alex vs Kap when it comes to the passing offense's philosophy. My intention is to see if the distorted pass distribution is due to Kap not able to spread the ball around, or if it's a characteristic of Harbaugh's passing offense. It's okay if you don't want to steer the thread that direction. I already know the answer, I think. I just wanted to see it backed up (or disproved) via stats.

Originally posted by buck:

Originally posted by thl408:
buck, can you provide a chart similar to the one above that lists targets and completions for the first half of 12-13, when Alex was QB (only games where he started and finished)? I feel that is the real passing offense that Harbaugh wants to use, or what is closest to it. The reason I say 12-13 when Alex was QB is because by then Alex had a full year with two offseasons preparing as the starter (2011 semi-locked out offseason, all of the offseason leading up to 12-13). That's the best time span I can think of where the 49er QB had a good grasp of what Harbaugh wanted to do.

What I saw was a very nice distribution on WR receptions, but I never went into targets. I don't know if you are able to separate Alex's starts from Kap's starts in 12-13, but I do know that when Kap became starter, Crabs was the man that got a huge amount of targets, so we can't use 12-13's end of season numbers since that includes Alex's and Kap's totals.

I am not sure that I want to do that.

I will not do anything that continues what I consider to an inane and dead Alex vs Collin debate.

But, I will check into the possibilities.

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by buck:

Originally posted by thl408:
buck, can you provide a chart similar to the one above that lists targets and completions for the first half of 12-13, when Alex was QB (only games where he started and finished)? I feel that is the real passing offense that Harbaugh wants to use, or what is closest to it. The reason I say 12-13 when Alex was QB is because by then Alex had a full year with two offseasons preparing as the starter (2011 semi-locked out offseason, all of the offseason leading up to 12-13). That's the best time span I can think of where the 49er QB had a good grasp of what Harbaugh wanted to do.

What I saw was a very nice distribution on WR receptions, but I never went into targets. I don't know if you are able to separate Alex's starts from Kap's starts in 12-13, but I do know that when Kap became starter, Crabs was the man that got a huge amount of targets, so we can't use 12-13's end of season numbers since that includes Alex's and Kap's totals.

I am not sure that I want to do that.

I will not do anything that continues what I consider to an inane and dead Alex vs Collin debate.

But, I will check into the possibilities.

It's not taboo to discuss Alex vs Kap when it comes to the passing offense's philosophy. My intention is to see if the distorted pass distribution is due to Kap not able to spread the ball around, or if it's a characteristic of Harbaugh's passing offense. It's okay if you don't want to steer the thread that direction. I already know the answer, I think. I just wanted to see it backed up (or disproved) via stats.

I agree thl408. If nothing else, we can compare it to the baseline of stats we have the last 8 games of this year when we had Crabtree back to get a nice gauge of realistic expectations going forward...just in time to have all the coaches switch a 180 on us and throw it all out the window like a Baalke-draft prediction (good or bad)! Haha

Other factors to consider:

- Injury to Crabtree (demonstrates lack of depth).
- Kaep's other skills. He rushes a lot, which means he's not passing as often.
- Scheme. We run the ball, wear people down and rely on keeping that defense well rested.
- Level of competition. We played 6 of the top 10 passing defenses, two against Seattle. We also play in the toughest defensive division in football.

Passing game needs work, there's no question of that. My considerations are there merely to temper the doom-and-gloom about their offense and about Kaepernick.

Several issues. Our passing ratings are similar to Seattle's. Their completion rate was better. But touchdowns was higher for Seattle.

The other issue is that we are more of a rushing team and use the pass to compliment and balance the running game.

With all of our "problems" we were one pass away from going to the superbowl for the second year in a row.

With all of our "problems" we played in our third championship game in a row so we are doing somethings right, and need some fine tuning.

In my opinion the biggest offseason fine tuning is Romans play calling, and Kaeps perceptions of the defense, and his touch. If those three things could be adjusted by 5% improvement our offense would be wonderful, or wonderful enough to win another super bowl.

Originally posted by thl408:

It's not taboo to discuss Alex vs Kap when it comes to the passing offense's philosophy. My intention is to see if the distorted pass distribution is due to Kap not able to spread the ball around, or if it's a characteristic of Harbaugh's passing offense. It's okay if you don't want to steer the thread that direction. I already know the answer, I think. I just wanted to see it backed up (or disproved) via stats.

I have started compiling the stats.

I can get the targets and receptions from espn.

I will be able to get the snap numbers per game from PFF

I think I need all three targets, receptions, snaps.

This is going to take a while and I am going to watch path to the draft and total access on game pass.

Maybe later tonight or tomorrow I will post what I find.

Stupid me.

Love the thread buck, and hope u can compile those stats, would love to see if it's philosophy, player, etc.

Originally posted by buck:

Originally posted by Giedi:
In the year of 2012, the passing attempts were at 436 for the year vs 417 this year, which tells me the offense won't change a whole lot. We had Delanie, Moss, Manningham, and Crabs that year and still we're hovering round 420 passes per year. I agree that the offense should be more effective, specially in the red zone if we have more passing targets, but I think this will still be 51% pass and 49% run offense.

Instead of more passes, I'd like to see more of an even distribution of passes to the WR's. If we have Quan, Crabs, Patton, VD, Vance and a High round WR draft pick - I'd like 25% Quan, 25% Crabs, 25% VD, 10% gore, 5% Patton, 5% Vance, and 5% High round WR draft pick. In other words, if Kaepernick is correctly reading the defense, there shouldn't be a preferred receiver that gets more than 30% of all the catches during the season, ideally speaking.

Last year, we threw the ball 417 times and rushed the ball 505 times. That is a total of 922 attempts.

Last year, we rushed the ball about 54.8% of the time and threw the ball about 45.2% of the time.

In the last three years, we have passed the ball 1,304 times and rushed it 1,495 times.

In the past three years, we have passed the ball 46.59% of time and we have rushed it 53.41% of the time.


I would like to see an increase in the percentage of passes thrown.

Just to play devils advocate if we do increase our percentage of passes thrown that does not mean the efficiency stays the same. We are known as a running team and the stats show just that. It causes the D to bring another defender in the box and open up the passing lanes and opportunities to push the ball down the field.

Also I have always felt it is not just an offensive philosophy but a team one, meaning, we have a great D and a great punter, why not play to our strengths. Keep the D rested with great TOP and use field position to our advantage.

Over the last three year TOP 49ers vs Opponents

2011 32:07 vs 28.03
2012 31:45 vs 30:04
2013 30:34 vs 29:25

If you are wanting a more 50/50 I get that but lets not push it to far and go 55/45 the other way. Still feel our D is great and Lee is still a great punter. Got to continue playing our key strengths. Kaep's growth will really determine this. If he can keep the efficiency up with check downs (What the west coast offence basically uses as run plays) or key third down throws then I feel comfortable that Harbaugh and Roman will open it up more to him.

Also if all else fails he is really fast but then that will be chalked up to another running play

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by buck:

Originally posted by thl408:
buck, can you provide a chart similar to the one above that lists targets and completions for the first half of 12-13, when Alex was QB (only games where he started and finished)? I feel that is the real passing offense that Harbaugh wants to use, or what is closest to it. The reason I say 12-13 when Alex was QB is because by then Alex had a full year with two offseasons preparing as the starter (2011 semi-locked out offseason, all of the offseason leading up to 12-13). That's the best time span I can think of where the 49er QB had a good grasp of what Harbaugh wanted to do.

What I saw was a very nice distribution on WR receptions, but I never went into targets. I don't know if you are able to separate Alex's starts from Kap's starts in 12-13, but I do know that when Kap became starter, Crabs was the man that got a huge amount of targets, so we can't use 12-13's end of season numbers since that includes Alex's and Kap's totals.

I am not sure that I want to do that.

I will not do anything that continues what I consider to an inane and dead Alex vs Collin debate.

But, I will check into the possibilities.

It's not taboo to discuss Alex vs Kap when it comes to the passing offense's philosophy. My intention is to see if the distorted pass distribution is due to Kap not able to spread the ball around, or if it's a characteristic of Harbaugh's passing offense. It's okay if you don't want to steer the thread that direction. I already know the answer, I think. I just wanted to see it backed up (or disproved) via stats.

It is around these parts. Feels will begin to flow and bannings will occur.

Thank you for posting the information.

Originally posted by thl408:
buck, can you provide a chart similar to the one above that lists targets and completions for the first half of 12-13, when Alex was QB (only games where he started and finished)? I feel that is the real passing offense that Harbaugh wants to use, or what is closest to it. The reason I say 12-13 when Alex was QB is because by then Alex had a full year with two offseasons preparing as the starter (2011 semi-locked out offseason, all of the offseason leading up to 12-13). That's the best time span I can think of where the 49er QB had a good grasp of what Harbaugh wanted to do.

What I saw was a very nice distribution on WR receptions, but I never went into targets. I don't know if you are able to separate Alex's starts from Kap's starts in 12-13, but I do know that when Kap became starter, Crabs was the man that got a huge amount of targets, so we can't use 12-13's end of season numbers since that includes Alex's and Kap's totals.

I agree totally with this bolded statement. I believe if there was one offense in his coaching career that he sort of strives to emulates it would the 2010 Stanford attack. You firgure he had his team fully in place, played in a top conference, and had an uber qb that would have been the top pick as if he could have come out. Basically if he was ever gonna go nuts passing the team was fully in place. The profile for that offense was the following:

OVERALL PROFILE
- Ratio: 42% Pass/58% Rush
- 258.7 Pass YPG
- 213.8 Rush YPG
-Comp%: 70.2
-TD/Int ratio: 32/8

Pass Distruibution(Based on Completion, couldn't find Targets)
-WR (57.3%) - Top WR had 38.9% of Rec within Postion, #2 had 27.5% and #3 had 16.8%
-TE (25.4%) - Top TE had 42.4% of Rec within Postion, #2 had 31.8% and #3 had 24.2%
-Backs (17.3) - Top Back had 62.2% of Rec within Postion

Recption Leaders
WR1 - 58 (22.3% of total Rec)
WR2 - 41 (15.8%)
TE1 - 28 (10.8%)
HB1 - 28 (10.8%)
WR3 - 25 (9.6%)
TE2 - 21 (8.1%)
WR4 - 17 (6.5%)
TE3 - 16 (6.2%)

Overall, watching this team I guess it just felt like TE's were even more involved then the numbers proofed. However it's pretty clear Harbaugh's passing goal is to spread the ball around with a highly effecient/turnover limiting attack. These 2010 stats illustrate what I believe is his "perfect" profile of an offense. I know watching 2011 and early '12 it really did feel like this type of offense. I know even with Kaep the efficiency #'s have remind good with the exception of completion %. Personaly I really wish the HBs were more involved, I remember we beat that to death in the "West Coast Offense/What is our Offense" thread from about a month ago. It really is alarming the effects of involving the Backs have on both the completion % and QB rating.

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by crake49:

Originally posted by aTx49er:
I know where this is headed......

Where do you think it's headed?

Kap vs Luck
Kap vs Peyton
Kap vs Brady
Kap vs Wilson
Kap vs Alex
and why not...
Kap vs Curtis Painter

Seriously though, thanks for posting that, buck. It just shows that efficiency numbers are there towards the top 10 of the league, while facing off against some very good defenses in 13-14.

The 1stdown % stat means little to me. It's about how many 1st downs you convert (% of conversion), no matter how you convert.

Attempts per TD also means very little to me. It's about how many TDs an offense scores, whether by run or pass. Gore is near the top in rushing TDs so that takes away from Kap needing to throw for TDs. What I find meaningful is passes per INT. That's a good measure of how well the QB is taking care of the ball when he throws it.

Kap vs Nate Davis
Kap vs Manziel
Kap vs Jason White........

Originally posted by buck:
I have started compiling the stats.

I can get the targets and receptions from espn.

I will be able to get the snap numbers per game from PFF

I think I need all three targets, receptions, snaps.

This is going to take a while and I am going to watch path to the draft and total access on game pass.

Maybe later tonight or tomorrow I will post what I find.

Stupid me.

Can't wait to see these numbers. Again, much like thl408, I think I know what they will say but it will be interesting to see if the the number back up "what I think I think I know" My gut says it will look very similar to that 2010 Stanford offense.

Originally posted by NeeJ49er:
we played with two viable receiving threats the majority of the season, three when Crabtree finally came back ...chances are the passing game will improve with added weapons in the passing game, we don't just have to find a receiver that can "stretch the field" ...very rarely do we attack deep downfield, so naturally I'm hoping we grab a couple more solid weapons for Kap to throw at , having a selection of reliable targets will without a doubt improve our passing attack

We would need our O-line to hold their blocks long enough for a deep attack to have any chance of being successful. that is a problem that needs to be addressed too.

Here is the breakdown of 2012 passes divided into games played by Alex Smith and games played by Collin Kaepernick.

In this post, I only give the numbers for Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker.

I will follow up with the wide receivers. I could not find the target numbers for backs, so I will not include them. ESPN only had the targets per game for wide receivers and tight ends.