Week 12: Thoughts after rewatching the game...

1) Kaepernick: I'm suspending the Alex Smith Stat update till he has new stats...which may be never in a 49er uniform. ;-) I have always been an Alex supporter on this forum. I have also always recognized his weaknesses. I've never made Alex out to be a dynamic passer. What he can be is deadly efficient in an offense that isn't built around him. There is something to be said for that and half the league would want someone who could play as well as Alex is playing right now. Having said all that, Colin Kaepernick is a different ballgame altogether. He has a chance to be special. People sometimes just see his mobility and think of him in terms of being a running QB, but it's what he's doing with his head, eyes, and arm that are making him special.In the past 2 games he's made 6-7 throws that Alex has never made. Ever. They are passes Alex would never even attempt, let alone complete. 16-25, 231 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. If you look at that stat line without watching the game you don't get the whole picture. First, that doesn't show 3 clear drops and 2 of them would have extended drives. That also doesn't reflect 50 yards on 2 plays that were called back on holding penalties. Both of those drives would have put the Niners in scoring position. The pick BTW, was totally forgivable. The DB dropped off his receiver while Kaep was trying to pick the ball off the turf. Young QB mistake on a bad snap. He has now played very well against one of the best D's in the NFL and in one of the toughest environments in the NFL. These last two wins were against teams with plans in January. This last win may be the closest thing to a playoff game the Saints actually get to play because the Niners MAY have just eliminated them. As I stated last week, I'm not given to buy into hype, but I'm having a really hard time not checking into the Niner team store to look at Kaepernick jerseys. I'm still not saying he's arrived, but he is off to a great start.

2) O-Line: Played very well, in particular the tackles. Look to be improving in pass protection, but some of that may be Kaeps increased escapability. One note tho...what was up with Goodwin constantly hitting Kaep in the ankles on shotgun snaps. Does he think he's still snapping the ball to Drew Brees?

3) Aldon: Still beastly. Bushrod actually played him very well, but Aldon still always seems to get his.

4) Depth: To all those peeps b***hing and complaining about drafting James and Jenkins when the team didn't "NEED" them...Ya get it now? Both of these guys may get activated now. Williams: Hurt. Hunter: Hurt. Ginn: Hurt. THAT'S why you draft for depth. My hope is that they don't lose Hunter for long, but I think Williams is done for the year. Kinda nice to replace injured players with your top 2 picks who have been able to sit and learn for more than half a season.

5) Goldson: I've said many, many times that he isn't my fav player, but he is having one hell of a year. He's not getting all the picks but he is blowing people up in a big way. More imporantly, he's doing it LEGALLY. He's leading with the shoulder.

6) Whitner: He can be a liability in coverage, but he closes on ballcarriers faster than any safety I've ever seen. When he intercepted that pass it looked like he was shot out of a cannon.

7) Brooks: One pick 6. A sack and a half. Not bad for the 4th best LB on the team.

8) Justin: Dude just lines up every week and mauls the guy in front of him. The only think that concerns me with Justin is his age and the fact that he never comes out of the game. The 49ers need to start looking for his eventual replacement in the off-season. I think Justin still has a few years, but eventually that body won't be able to sustain that motor.

9) Walker: Delanie Walker can be a downright scary player if teams take Davis away and leave Walker in single coverage. Unfortunately it looks like he hurt his hip, but it looks like Kaep has no problem gunning it into him in tight windows for big gains.

10) Dynamic: It is pretty damn clear that this team is much more dynamic with kaep at QB over Smith. As the announcers stated yesterday, Kaep has 10 plays over 20 yards. Alex has 22 in the previous 9 games. Kaep completed several passes that Alex would never even attempt. The trick here tho is whether or not he'll throw the picks that Alex wouldn't throw. We'll just have to wait and see.

Yeah, Goodwin has had a lot of low snaps this year and like 4 in this game alone. Also had a holding call I believe. I hope Kilgore is ready or we draft someone and cut Goodwin to save 4.5 million. If he wants to re-negotiate his last year and take less I'd have him back but for now not sure I would pay him 5 mil. Not necessarily because he isn't worth it but because we need the money to re-sign/extend better players.

Good reading as always.

Only one disagreement, I blame CK more than Goodwin for that INT, bad snap either scramble, throw it away, etc. One bad decision in an otherwise good game (even with dropped passes and big plays called back) doesn't take away his play-making ability to get the ball more downfield and stretch out the defense, better for our running attack or for a CK scramble.

Man, we have the best DL/LB core in the NFL, and when you add big hits and INT/TD to that, teams know they can't run against us, abandon that and go pass-happy and it falls into our trap with our dominant pass rushers eager for another sack and creating more turnover opportunities.

Good to be a Niners fan and Harbaugh/Roman/Fangio finally put together a game plan to utilize the talent on this team to make us favorites for another NFC West title and playoff-bound once again.

Great post Marvin and I agree on all points. A few catches made that were on the money and that game gets out of hand. I love seeing the mid level passing game.

Originally posted by WINiner:
Great post Marvin and I agree on all points. A few catches made that were on the money and that game gets out of hand. I love seeing the mid level passing game.

Ditto

Great analysis Marvin, but you may have left out 3rd percentages because Kaep seemed to be making them all day long. One area Alex Smith has been deficient throughout his career. Multiple times, the offense was put in 2nd and 3rd and long situations and Kaep bailed them out with his arm and his legs. And you're dead right about his passing ability because his accuracy on deep throws has been a substantial improvement over Alex's. Further to that, what differentiates himself from the Michael Vick's of the world is that he always seems to have his eyes downfield when scrambling and can throw on the run.

Originally posted by mcbaes72:
Good reading as always.

Only one disagreement, I blame CK more than Goodwin for that INT, bad snap either scramble, throw it away, etc. One bad decision in an otherwise good game (even with dropped passes and big plays called back) doesn't take away his play-making ability to get the ball more downfield and stretch out the defense, better for our running attack or for a CK scramble.

Man, we have the best DL/LB core in the NFL, and when you add big hits and INT/TD to that, teams know they can't run against us, abandon that and go pass-happy and it falls into our trap with our dominant pass rushers eager for another sack and creating more turnover opportunities.

Good to be a Niners fan and Harbaugh/Roman/Fangio finally put together a game plan to utilize the talent on this team to make us favorites for another NFC West title and playoff-bound once again.

To be clear, I don't "blame" Goodwin. I'm just saying the INT was forgivable given the situation. It was certainly a mistake by Kaep.

Originally posted by bzborow1:
Great analysis Marvin, but you may have left out 3rd percentages because Kaep seemed to be making them all day long. One area Alex Smith has been deficient throughout his career. Multiple times, the offense was put in 2nd and 3rd and long situations and Kaep bailed them out with his arm and his legs. And you're dead right about his passing ability because his accuracy on deep throws has been a substantial improvement over Alex's. Further to that, what differentiates himself from the Michael Vick's of the world is that he always seems to have his eyes downfield when scrambling and can throw on the run.

They were 6 of 13 on 3rd down, but I get your point.

One more thing I forgot to mention....

When the Niners score TDs from the red zone, they are doing it on first down. The are executing very well.

Kaep is the right piece in this cog of a system

Originally posted by bzborow1:
Great analysis Marvin, but you may have left out 3rd percentages because Kaep seemed to be making them all day long. One area Alex Smith has been deficient throughout his career. Multiple times, the offense was put in 2nd and 3rd and long situations and Kaep bailed them out with his arm and his legs. And you're dead right about his passing ability because his accuracy on deep throws has been a substantial improvement over Alex's. Further to that, what differentiates himself from the Michael Vick's of the world is that he always seems to have his eyes downfield when scrambling and can throw on the run.

I agree on how dangerous he is as a runner because he is a true dual threat with very good accuracy going left aaaannd right, until he passes that los. A defender must decide to defend the pass or the run and he can beat you up with both.

This kids a lot of fun to watch.

Originally posted by mcbaes72:
Good reading as always.

Only one disagreement, I blame CK more than Goodwin for that INT, bad snap either scramble, throw it away, etc. One bad decision in an otherwise good game (even with dropped passes and big plays called back) doesn't take away his play-making ability to get the ball more downfield and stretch out the defense, better for our running attack or for a CK scramble.

Man, we have the best DL/LB core in the NFL, and when you add big hits and INT/TD to that, teams know they can't run against us, abandon that and go pass-happy and it falls into our trap with our dominant pass rushers eager for another sack and creating more turnover opportunities.

Good to be a Niners fan and Harbaugh/Roman/Fangio finally put together a game plan to utilize the talent on this team to make us favorites for another NFC West title and playoff-bound once again.

Yup I agree. It was a bad snap, but that doesn't excuse the int. He will hopefully learn from that and it won't be an issue going forward. To be fair I do expect some of those kinds of mistakes. I am just hoping they are minimal due to his time in the system.

I agree with everything you said Marvin.

Kaepernick is 11 for18 on throws outside the pocket with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Alex is 9 for 19 on such throws with one touchdown and one interception. Kaepernick converted 9 firstdowns of the 18 while Alex only converted 4 of the 19 passes.

Kaepernick did not get sacked yesterday despite better pressure from the Saints then last week by the Bears. Also Alex has never been a WR best friend. Mario Manningham was the leading reciever yesterday and if Kaepernick remains the starter I expect better things from them.

I was watching Jay Cutler slied to his left and fire a bullet pass into the endzone for a touchdown, I said to myself we now have such a Quarterback.

As always, excellent post Marvin.

I don't like getting involved in the ongoing QB debate, too much hipocracy all around.
CK is more elusive in the pocket, and he keeps his eyes downfield. I think it is those two things that set him apart. It helps that he can get the ball downfield in a hurry.
Alex is a conservative QB, and he found a way to be successful playing that way. Two QBs that have found success in the system. One more exciting but perhaps risky. The other less exciting but safe and methodical (possibly better TOP). An interesting situation.
I believe CK will win out. Big play ability like his is too much to keep on the sidelines.

Originally posted by Marvin49:
They were 6 of 13 on 3rd down, but I get your point.

One more thing I forgot to mention....

When the Niners score TDs from the red zone, they are doing it on first down. The are executing very well.

This is the one area where Alex numbers are not solid, third downs.