OTC's Winter Wonderland Mock 2011

Now, folks... I ask first off that you direct your anger elsewhere if you are displeased with anything you're about to see, for I am just the mocker here, not the selector. I call it how I perceive things to pan out, so bear with my speculations, but understand that I make them with a great deal of informational support. These are highly educated guesses, based on all that is available for one to know.

With that said, let's get this Mock rolling...

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Off-Season Moves

HC Targets: (In the end, I think Jed will select one of these three).
Harbaugh, Mularkey, Holmgren

FA/Trade Targets:
QB - Orton, McNabb, Kolb
RB - Darren Sproles, Mewelde Moore
WR - Vincent Jackson, Santana Moss
OG - Logan Mankins
DE - Trevor Pryce, Marcus Spears, Cullen Jenkins
OLB - Matt Roth, Mike Vrabel
CB - Lito Sheppard, Ike Taylor, Ronde Barber, Carlos Rogers

Possibly/Likley Leaving:
OG Rachal, Baas, and Heitmann
CBs Brown, James, Clements -- He's going to make almost 8 million next year. He'll either take a pay cut or be released.
RBs Westbrook, Norris
OLB Haralson -- Slow, weak, undisciplined, and just not good.
QB Carr, Smith
DL Evans, Franklin
FS Goldson
OT Sims


2011 NFL Draft

1. Jake Locker-QB-Washington, 6-3 230 4.53
Don't get angry at me -- I'm only mocking out what I think WE could expect as a possible selection here in San Fran. Scouts compare Locker to a young Steve Young; an extremely athletic QB who just needs time to develop. Locker comes from a pro-style system and is a physical freak. Locker received little to nothing in terms of help from the players around him. His line let him get the crap beat out of him, and receivers dropped nearly everything thrown their way no matter how perfect the passes were. .... Now.. Locker DOES NEED WORK, BUT.. The whole reason we have coaches in the NFL is to mold, develop, correct, instruct and get the most out of their players. Locker has massive amounts of talent and potential, that is absolutely undeniable, but just needs someone to help groom him into the star he could be. Look at Tebow, people were screaming "Oh he's just an H-back in the NFL, his throwing motion is this, he can't throw, yadda yadda..." -- And look at him now -- with time to learn, he's refined himself, fixed his issues, and is playing pretty darn well for a dang rookie. The point is.. don't give up on a guy before he even has a chance for NFL coaches to work on him. There have been plenty of unpolished players -- Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Eli Manning, Josh Freeman (he was VERY raw), and Ryan Fitzpatrick to name a few -- who with work have turned into franchise QB's. I know some people will scream profanities, go into virtual cardiac arrest, or turn away in disgust at the thought of snagging Locker, but I'm asking you to refrain, because of the many reasons I just listed.

2. Stefen Wisniewski-OC-Penn State, 6-3 306 5.16
Wisniewski, an All-American and the nephew of former NFL All-Pro lineman Steve Wisniewski, has easily been the best player on Penn State's offensive line. Stefen could go as high as the late 2nd, but if he falls here, it's virtually a no-brainer for San Francisco. Heitmann now has two broken legs and a neck injury on his record, and Baas has two horrific snaps (one for a safety) that should never, EVER happen for an NFL center. I do not expect either to return, especially not in a starting role. So we've got to fill that void. I would expect Wisniewski to immediately compete for a starting role with either Wragge (if brought back) or Snyder next season, and would likely win that job in training camp. Wisniewski, with an addition of a big-name FA such as Mankins, would help to solidify our line for years if Iupati builds on his early success and Davis improves upon his rookie year.

3. Kenrick Ellis-NT-Hampton, 6-4 340 5.07
Some may question his competition level, but the staggering numbers Ellis has posted for the position he plays simply cannot be ignored. The South Carolina transfer has put up 15 TFL, 2 sacks, and 2 FF with 5 QB hurries. He's simply a monster in stuffing the run. When you see the athleticism Ellis has, the numbers may not seem all that surprising. The kid is simply bigger, faster, and stronger than everyone else around him. The 49ers have ignored the NT position for so long, they cannot neglect it any further. Franklin wants to test free agency and likely won't return next season. Franklin's not getting any younger either, and considering the style of defense our players are suited for, Ellis is a mighty fine fit here.

4. Rashad Carmichael-CB-Virginia Tech, 5-10 186 4.38
I think over the years, there's been the perception that every 49er corner has to be 6-0 200 or bigger. This is clearly not the case. You do not have to have those kind of dimensions to be elite. Carmichael is one of, if not the fastest CB entering this draft class. Speed in the defensive backfield is one of the biggest things we've been missing. The DeSean Jacksons, Santana Mosses, and others alike are blowing by us with ease, and we need someone to cover these receivers coming out of the slot. Rashad is a tough player who despite lacking imposing size, has had a great deal of success and has been a productive player in Virginia Tech's secondary. He has 10 interceptions over the past two seasons (4 INTs this year) with 2 of those returned for TDs (one this year).

4. Derek Hall-OT-Stanford, 6-5 305 5.24
Hall has really garned some attention this year with exceptional play all season. Stanford's line collectively has only given up 5 sacks all year -- that's best in the nation. On top of that, Stanford is in the top 20 for rushing offense as well. With a QB like Luck and an already supercell passing attack, and looking at some of the other teams in that list (who never pass), that is no small feat to be that highly ranked in rushing as well. Hall is just another example of a well-coached player who has begun to shine. With Sims leaving after this year, Staley having a down year and dealing with injuries, and Anthony Davis still really being a question mark, it would be very wise to invest a pick in a tackle.

5. Stanley Havili-FB/HB-USC, 6-0 228 4.64
The "true fullback" position is becoming virtually obsolete, and now is the era of hybrid players like Jacob Hester, Peyton Hillis, Tolbert, etc. ... Norris has been here a long time and we can applaud him for his services, but it's time to get with the times and bring in someone more dynamic, someone who can run like a tailback, block like a stud, and actually catch passes in the flat and do something with it. Stanley fits that bill. He may not make it here, but if he does and we pass, we'll be giving up a valuable player at a position we really need.

6. Edmund Gates-WR-Abilene Christian, 6-0 190 4.43
I expect Gates to be yet another one of the late-round gems that ACU has produced for several of the past few years' drafts. He would fit in well as a role player in the receiving game, making plays in the slot and deep down the field. Gates, a DII All-American, had over 1000 yards and 13 TDs this season.

6. Bruce Miller-OLB-Central Florida, 6-1 248 4.75
Every team and every coach loves a guy like Miller and wants a player like him on their team. Miller is one of those outstanding hustle players who will work his tail off day in and day out, and his hard work pays off. He consistently, yet quietly produced terrific numbers at UCF for each of these past three seasons. Take a look at this production: This year he has a whopping EIGHTEEN QB hurries to go along with 7 sacks, 11.5 TFL, 2 FF, and 2 INTs both returned for touchdowns. Last year he had 13 sacks and 18 TFL, and the year before that, 7 sacks with 17 TFL. With Miller you're getting a guy who should be an immediate ST's contributor, and quite feasibly a future starter. He's not the biggest or the fastest and likely won't "wow" people physically or in his combine workouts, and because of this, Miller could be a steal in the 6th.

7. Karl Klug-DE/OLB-Iowa, 6-3 270 4.79
Klug is a player much like Matt Roth, one of the many solid pass-rushers in this league who coincidentally also went to Iowa. Klug had a fantastic bowl game in Iowa's Insight Bowl victory, and had a very solid season this year. He's a strong hand-battler who fits the elephant-end position perfectly. He can move well enough to play linebacker in the 3-4, while also having the ability to put his hand in the dirt and still bring a strong pass-rushing presence on passing downs. Klug finished this season with 13 TFL and 5.5 sacks.

7. Anthony Gray-NT-Southern Miss, 6-0 317 5.08
Anything but a flashy guy, Gray is a similar player to Aubrayo Franklin, and although he may need a little time to develop, I don't think we can go out of this draft without taking someone to work in at nose tackle. He's had a solid year thus far with 42 tackles, 5.5 TFL, and 1.5 sacks.

[ Edited by OnTheClock on Dec 30, 2010 at 17:26:56 ]

Love it OTC,

Would love Wisniewski in rd 2.

Off Topic: Let me know if you need a site hosting to host your files again.

I really really really don't want Locker. ESPECIALLY with a top 10 pick.

I would boycott this team if we draft him.

Picks I like are Carmichael and Havili. The rest, I would try to like.

Originally posted by OregonDuckNiner:
I really really really don't want Locker. ESPECIALLY with a top 10 pick.

I would boycott this team if we draft him.

Don't say that so prematurely. You never know what can happen when these guys get to the NFL.

I'm still on the fence personally. I understand Locker has loads of talent, but it's hard to evaluate him objectively due to the team he's on right now. Locker's performance tonight could do a tremendous amount to easing the concerns of people unsure of him. It's going to be an insane task to take on Nebraska, so if he can at least do decent, I'll be somewhat impressed.

Remember, with any QB we draft, it's pretty likely we'll go after someone to start while they develop. I'm not sure we're going to throw a QB into the fire this time ...

Originally posted by AB83Rules:
Love it OTC,

Would love Wisniewski in rd 2.

Off Topic: Let me know if you need a site hosting to host your files again.

Sure, will do.

I'm actually kind of hoping Wisniewski falls in our laps. I cannot see how we could pass on the guy if he did. After our Center play this year? No way. Pouncey could be there in the 2nd, maybe even the 3rd, but he's a better guard than center in my opinion. His brother was the better center.

I like the QB and NT projections. Hopefully we can get some CBs in that will help us get our backfield stabilized. But we got to get the QBs going and the NT and the Oline. Etc.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by AB83Rules:
Love it OTC,

Would love Wisniewski in rd 2.

Off Topic: Let me know if you need a site hosting to host your files again.

Sure, will do.

I'm actually kind of hoping Wisniewski falls in our laps. I cannot see how we could pass on the guy if he did. After our Center play this year? No way. Pouncey could be there in the 2nd, maybe even the 3rd, but he's a better guard than center in my opinion. His brother was the better center.

agreed 100% I have Wisniewski best C in draft class, Pouncey is 2nd but is a better G to me as well.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by OregonDuckNiner:
I really really really don't want Locker. ESPECIALLY with a top 10 pick.

I would boycott this team if we draft him.

Don't say that so prematurely. You never know what can happen when these guys get to the NFL.

I'm still on the fence personally. I understand Locker has loads of talent, but it's hard to evaluate him objectively due to the team he's on right now. Locker's performance tonight could do a tremendous amount to easing the concerns of people unsure of him. It's going to be an insane task to take on Nebraska, so if he can at least do decent, I'll be somewhat impressed.

Remember, with any QB we draft, it's pretty likely we'll go after someone to start while they develop. I'm not sure we're going to throw a QB into the fire this time ...

I agree, I think the only things we learned about Locker this season:

1. Locker needs an experienced line. Three freshman and a sophmore equals to bruises and broken bones for Locker

2. Locker needs a solid running game. If he can't establish the PA pass, will be a long, LONG night...

3. Locker doesn't play against Nebraska very well


That's what I've learned about him, but the funny thing is, EVERY QB would have problems. The only thing it means is that he's not #1 overall pick material like last year. I agree, he needs to learn a system and get behind an experienced line. He has great intangibles and reads the defense very well. If we can answer our pass rush and CB situations, then wouldn't be against it.

I like the 4th round through 7th round picks, especially the Carmichael and Havili picks. Not a big fan of the Penn State center in the 2nd when there will be so many skill set players available and depth in OL towards the 5th-7th rounds. But once again, depends on FA pickups, great job on the research overall

Originally posted by Crazy49er1313:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by OregonDuckNiner:
I really really really don't want Locker. ESPECIALLY with a top 10 pick.

I would boycott this team if we draft him.

Don't say that so prematurely. You never know what can happen when these guys get to the NFL.

I'm still on the fence personally. I understand Locker has loads of talent, but it's hard to evaluate him objectively due to the team he's on right now. Locker's performance tonight could do a tremendous amount to easing the concerns of people unsure of him. It's going to be an insane task to take on Nebraska, so if he can at least do decent, I'll be somewhat impressed.

Remember, with any QB we draft, it's pretty likely we'll go after someone to start while they develop. I'm not sure we're going to throw a QB into the fire this time ...

I agree, I think the only things we learned about Locker this season:

1. Locker needs an experienced line. Three freshman and a sophmore equals to bruises and broken bones for Locker

2. Locker needs a solid running game. If he can't establish the PA pass, will be a long, LONG night...

3. Locker doesn't play against Nebraska very well


That's what I've learned about him, but the funny thing is, EVERY QB would have problems. The only thing it means is that he's not #1 overall pick material like last year. I agree, he needs to learn a system and get behind an experienced line. He has great intangibles and reads the defense very well. If we can answer our pass rush and CB situations, then wouldn't be against it.

I like the 4th round through 7th round picks, especially the Carmichael and Havili picks. Not a big fan of the Penn State center in the 2nd when there will be so many skill set players available and depth in OL towards the 5th-7th rounds. But once again, depends on FA pickups, great job on the research overall

I understand it's not a sexy pick, but when you run across a player of his caliber, you just can't let them fly by you, especially when it's such a gaping hole on your team. The drop off is enormous between Wisniewski and the later round linemen. Solidifying our line is a huge priority. People forget how imperative it is to have guys that will dominate in the trenches. We don't have that, and we've got to work on it. Doing so will help elevate the entire team in all facets of the game.

It is up to a QB especially at the college level to make players around him better. If he cant even do that at the college level, how can he in the pros? Locker had the benefit of Polk playing RB for 2 years, and he still failed to make anyone else better. Alex Smith version 2....except faster.

That said, I cant wait to watch him tonight, too see if he can come back against one of the teams that embarrased him this year....others being a lame BYU team, lame UCLA team, Stanford, and some other team.

That said, lets see what happens.

Oh and do you really think we are opening up the bank vault for ALL those FA's? lol I dont think so sir!

oh OK targets!

sorry

Do I want Locker? Not really

Could I be cool with Locker if Harbaugh is the head coach? Yes

Originally posted by teeohh:
Do I want Locker? Not really

Could I be cool with Locker if Harbaugh is the head coach? Yes

yeah....I would be cool with that as well.

I do think Havli would be a solid pick here. I think its time to draft a kicker though. Henry out of Nebraska (watch him tonight) or Forbath out of UCLA.

either way we do need a QB. After the combine I expect Locker's stock to rise.