The San Francisco 49ers kept giving the ball to the Dallas Cowboys and were humiliated for the third straight week in a 33-41 debacle that definitively ended any playoff chance and made clear that the Super Bowl hangover is very real for the 2020 Niners. The 49ers will be without Nick Mullens and Raheem Mostert for their Week 16 contest with the surging Arizona Cardinals. Here we discuss the line and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Saturday December 26th, 2020 at 1:30 pm PST (PRIME VIDEO)
Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Line: 49ers +4.5, o/u 49
Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals held off Jalen Hurts and an improving Philadelphia Eagles offense behind Kyler Murray's career-high 406 yards passing in a 33-26 victory in Week 15.
After fifteen weeks, Arizona is ranked 12th in passing offense defense-adjusted value over replacement (DVOA) at 20.1 percent, 17th in rushing offense DVOA at -8.0 percent, and 10th with 27.9 points per game. Arizona's defense is 8th in passing defense DVOA at 0.1 percent, 14th in rushing defense DVOA at -15.7 percent, and 13th with 23.5 points allowed per game.
Kyler Murray is 12th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 611, 13th with total quarterback rating (QBR) of 69.4 with 26 touchdowns passing, 11 interceptions, and four fumbles lost, completing 69.1 percent of his passes and with 741 yards rushing and 11 rushing touchdowns. The Cardinals rank 13th in Football Outsiders' weighted total DVOA at 7.1 percent, 17th in weighted offensive DVOA at -0.7 percent, and 8th in weighted defensive DVOA at -8.0 percent. Arizona's offensive line is ranked 7th in pass protection and 26th in adjusted line yards, while its defensive line is 11th in adjusted sack rate and 17th in adjusted line yards. The Cardinals are 7-7 against the spread (ATS) and 5-9 to the over/under.
San Francisco 49ers
After fifteen weeks, the Niners offense is 22nd in passing offense DVOA at 8.3 percent, 19th in rushing offense DVOA at -9.4 percent, and 20th with 23.8 points per game. San Francisco's defense is 14th in passing defense DVOA at 4.3 percent, 9th in rushing defense DVOA at -19.4 percent, and 17th with 25.1 points allowed per game.
C.J. Beathard has a DYAR of 51, QBR of 56.6 and two touchdowns, zero interceptions, and one fumble lost, completing 63.1 percent of his passes in limited action in 2020. San Francisco ranks 19th in weighted total DVOA at -4.4 percent, 22nd in weighted offensive DVOA at -9.8 percent, and 10th in weighted defensive DVOA at -6.0 percent. San Francisco's offensive line is ranked 8th in pass protection and 25th in adjusted line yards, while its defensive line is 25th in adjusted sack rate and 9th in adjusted line yards. The Niners are 5-9 ATS and 7-7 to the over/under.
Prediction
Though fans who've been tortured by Nick Mullens' turnovers might like the idea of C.J. Beathard starting Saturday, the Niners offense will still be missing Raheem Mostert and Deebo Samuel and Jeff Wilson Jr. is questionable with an ankle injury.
Kyle Shanahan hinted at the possibility of George Kittle playing Sunday, but we see little point in Kittle playing in a lost season and are not going to expect substantial playing time or offensive production if he does return.
Robert Saleh's defenses have been gashed by quarterbacks who can run the ball effectively and Kyler Murray has been doing exactly that in his sophomore season. With Jimmie Ward and Tarvarius Moore both questionable, Richard Sherman looking like he is mailing it in at this point, and the 49ers unable to generate an effective pass rush, we anticipate that Murray and the Cardinals offense will have their way on Saturday.
Not all of Nick Mullens' turnovers are entirely on him, as the Niners offensive line has given up six sacks over the past two weeks and will now face a Cardinals defense that has 12 sacks in the past two games. Beathard might provide a bit of a lift but he will likely succumb to Arizona pressure on Saturday and with Mostert injured and Wilson Jr. questionable, we don't expect San Francisco to have a surge in offensive potency.
This line opened up at Cardinals -3 and it has moved to -4.5. Whether it is being driven by sharp or public money, we don't care if the Niners are very undervalued or Arizona is overvalued and can only fade the dysfunction that is the 2020 San Francisco 49ers. We are posting this pick early in the week because we expect the line to continue to widen. Pick: Cardinals -4.5
2020 Season ATS
5-8
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