The San Francisco 49ers got crushed without their defense conceding a single touchdown in an embarrassing 15-23 loss to the Washington Football Team and its ferocious front four, a result that is likely the proverbial nail in the coffin of the Niners' 2020 season. The 49ers will travel to take on another NFC East opponent with a back up quarterback in the Dallas Cowboys in Week 15. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Sunday December 20th, 2020 at 10:00 am PST (CBS)
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Line: 49ers -3, o/u 45
Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys made easy work of the reeling Bengals in a 30-7 trouncing of Cincinnati in the Andy Dalton revenge game.
After fourteen weeks, Dallas is ranked 23rd in passing offense defense-adjusted value over replacement (DVOA) at -1.3 percent, 20th in rushing offense DVOA at -13.4 percent, and 21st with 22.9 points per game. The Cowboys' defense is 23rd in passing defense DVOA at 15.2 percent, 27th in rushing defense DVOA at 1.0 percent, and 32nd with 30.8 points allowed per game.
Andy Dalton is 29th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at -158, 26th with total quarterback rating (QBR) of 52.5 with 9 touchdowns passing, 6 interceptions, and zero fumbles lost, completing 65.8 percent of his passes. Dallas ranks 27th in Football Outsiders' weighted total DVOA at -15.9 percent, 23rd in weighted offensive DVOA at -11.1 percent, and 23rd in weighted defensive DVOA at 8.0 percent. The Cowboys' offensive line is ranked 11th in pass protection and 9th in adjusted line yards, while their defensive line is 23rd in adjusted sack rate and 32nd in adjusted line yards. Dallas is 3-10 against the spread (ATS) and 7-6 to the over/under.
San Francisco 49ers
After fourteen weeks, the Niners offense is 20th in passing offense DVOA at 10.3 percent, 17th in rushing offense DVOA at -7.7 percent, and 20th with 23.1 points per game. San Francisco's defense is 13th in passing defense DVOA at 4.3 percent, 7th in rushing defense DVOA at -19.6 percent, and 14th with 23.9 points allowed per game.
Nick Mullens is 23rd in DYAR at 119, 32nd with QBR of 43.5 with 10 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and 3 fumbles lost, completing 65.5 percent of his passes. San Francisco ranks 16th in weighted total DVOA at 0.1 percent, 21st in weighted offensive DVOA at -6.5 percent, and 10th in weighted defensive DVOA at -7.0 percent. San Francisco's offensive line is ranked 7th in pass protection and 28th in adjusted line yards, while its defensive line is 22nd in adjusted sack rate and 10th in adjusted line yards. The Niners are 5-8 ATS and 6-7 to the over/under.
Prediction
San Francisco's offensive line was no match for Chase Young and the Football Team's defensive line, which pressured Nick Mullens into gifting the defense two touchdowns while making Kyle Shanahan's offense look completely inept in Week 14.
We expect a bounce back performance from the Niners after two embarrassing losses and would side with the Niners if given a free bet, but with San Francisco now having less to play for and with Nick Mullens at quarterback, we are done picking the Niners this season and instead will look to the total.
Dallas concedes the most points in the league and with the Cowboys owning the 27th ranked rushing defense, we expect Kyle Shanahan to get the running game going in earnest this week, which should open up things even more for standout rookie Brandon Aiyuk, and we see the best value in taking the Niners' team total over the total.
In six home games this season, the Cowboys' totals have finished at 79, 87, 71, 48, 43, and 57 points, and though we expect the Niners defense to have success against Andy Dalton and the Cowboys offense, this classic NFC rivalry should end up with plenty of points on the board. Pick: Over 45
2020 Season ATS
4-8
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