Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports


San Francisco 49ers vs Buffalo Bills odds and pick - Week 13, 2020

Dec 3, 2020 at 10:35 AM0


The San Francisco 49ers showed resilience, poise, and an outstanding defensive game plan in sweeping the division-rival Los Angeles Rams for the second straight season, this year taking the second game by a 23-20 score in Southern California. As if 2020 had not been unpredictable enough for San Francisco, the Niners have been banned from their Santa Clara facilities due to COVID-19 concerns and will now host a Monday night game in Glendale Arizona against the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Monday December 7th, 2020 at 5:15 pm PST (ESPN/ABC)
Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Line: 49ers +1, o/u 48

Buffalo Bills
Coming out of their bye, the Buffalo Bills were sloppy, turning the ball over on three fourth-quarter possessions, but did just enough to hold off the underperforming Los Angeles Chargers by the score of 27-17 in Week 12.

After twelve weeks, the Bills are ranked 6th in passing offense defense-adjusted value over replacement (DVOA) at 32.6 percent, 12th in rushing offense DVOA at -5.9 percent, and 10th with 27.2 points per game. Buffalo's defense is 15th in passing defense DVOA at 5.1 percent, 22nd rushing defense DVOA at -3.5 percent, and 18th with 25.6 points allowed per game.

Josh Allen is 8th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 668, 6th with total quarterback rating (QBR) of 75.5 with 22 touchdowns passing, 8 interceptions, and 2 fumbles lost, completing 68.8 percent of his passes. Buffalo ranks 11th in Football Outsiders total DVOA at 9.9 percent, 8th in offensive DVOA at 7.7 percent, and 16th in defensive DVOA at 1.2 percent. Buffalo's offensive line is ranked 19th in pass protection and 23rd in run blocking, while its defensive line is 8th in adjusted sack rate and 19th in adjusted line yards. The Bills are 6-5 against the spread (ATS) and 7-3-1 to the over/under.

San Francisco 49ers
After twelve weeks, the Niners offense is 21st in passing offense DVOA at 8.1 percent, 12th in rushing offense DVOA at -5.6 percent, and 20th with 23.7 points per game. San Francisco's defense is 14th in passing defense DVOA at 4.0 percent, 10th in rushing defense DVOA at -19.2 percent, and 11th with 23.1 points allowed per game.

Nick Mullens is 23rd in DYAR at 59, 28th with QBR of 45.5 with 6 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and 2 fumbles lost, completing 67.5 percent of his passes. San Francisco ranks 14th in total DVOA at 4.6 percent, 19th in offensive DVOA at -1.4 percent, and 9th in defensive DVOA at -5.9 percent. San Francisco's offensive line is ranked 10th in pass protection and 27th in run blocking, while its defensive line is 20th in adjusted sack rate and 9th in adjusted line yards. The Niners are 5-6 ATS and 5-6 to the over/under.

Prediction
Robert Saleh was already considered a top NFL head coaching candidate before Week 12. However, with Richard Sherman returning to help captain the defense in tandem with Jason Verrett's continued excellence as one of the top five Pro Football Focus-rated cornerbacks in the NFL, it's almost a forgone conclusion that Saleh will soon leave the Niners for a head coaching position with the outstanding job he continues to do despite the injuries his unit has sustained this season. One question that will help determine the outcome in Week 13 is how the Niners defense will contain Josh Allen and the Bills passing attack.
San Francisco is starting to get healthy and at 5-6 is still in contention for a Wild Card spot and we anticipate that it will continue to play intense, physical football and focus on exploiting weaknesses in Buffalo's rushing defense that will keep the ball out of Josh Allen's hands and open up the rest of the offense. With Deebo Samuel back in the line up and playing like a bully again and Brandon Aiyuk being cleared from the COVID-19 list, Kyle Shanahan should have more success against the Bills defense than he did against the Rams.
The line opened with the Niners being 2.5-point underdogs and it has shifted 1.5 points in the past 24 hours with San Francisco now being only 1-point underdogs, likely due to sharp bettors taking the Niners, and we can understand why. At face value, it seems very enticing to take the AFC East-leading Bills high-powered offense laying only one point against Nick Mullens and the still-depleted 49ers, but if it seems too good to be true in sports wagering, it usually is.

San Francisco has done better against-the-spread away from Levi's Stadium and as underdogs, and we expect it to continue to play inspired football in a prime time game on Monday night in Arizona, with the defense finding ways to limit Josh Allen and the offense finding early success on the ground, which will open up some big plays for Deebo and Aiyuk in a Niners victory. Pick: 49ers +1

2020 Season ATS
4-6

Poll

  • What is your best bet for 49ers vs Bills on 12/7/20?
  • 49ers +1
  • Bills -1
  • Over 48
  • Under 48
The views within this article are those of the writer and, while just as important, are not necessarily those of the site as a whole.


0 Comments

  • No Comments

Facebook Comments



More San Francisco 49ers News



Kiper and McShay on what the 49ers do with the No. 3 draft pick

By David Bonilla
Apr 15, 2021

Mac Jones is not the third-best quarterback on Mel Kiper's big board. He's not the fourth-best either. According to the ESPN analyst, the former Alabama quarterback is the fifth-best quarterback, but he could be the third player to come off the draft board on April 29. The 2021 NFL Draft is just two weeks away, and the San Francisco 49ers own the No. 3 overall pick. If Kiper had to put a percentage on the chances of each of the three quarterback prospects expected to be available at that spot landing with the Bay Area team, he would say 80 percent to Jones, 15 percent to Justin Lance of North Dakota State, and five percent to Justin Fields of Ohio State. "All the buzz I've heard is that 49ers general manager John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan traded up nine spots



Jeremiah on 49ers' pick in latest mock draft: 'I am surprised that everything you hear points toward Jones'

By David Bonilla
Apr 6, 2021

With so many smokescreens and teams keeping their strategies close to the vest, it's tough to believe anything you hear when it comes to pre-draft rumors and speculation. Everyone in the media feels the San Francisco 49ers traded up to the No. 3 spot for Alabama quarterback Mac Jones, whether they can make sense of it or not. Much of that is based on what they hear from around the league. Their colleagues and other teams feel Jones might be the pick, despite the overwhelming opinion that the selection would be a reach. NFL Media analyst Bucky Brooks doesn't even view Jones as worthy of a first-round pick, much less No. 3 overall. "Perhaps the Alabama quarterback is a secret member of The Avengers, operating like Tony Stark as Iron Man,"



Neither Lynch nor Shanahan asked Nick Saban about Mac Jones, potential 49ers draft pick, at pro day

By David Bonilla
Apr 6, 2021

File this under interesting pre-draft tidbits. San Francisco 49ers general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan were in attendance for Alabama's pro day last week. That made headlines because the duo opted to watch quarterback Mac Jones rather than attend Ohio State's pro day to watch Justin Fields. Paired with Chris Simms' speculation that San Francisco might have traded up to the No. 3 spot for Jones, that spurred others to seriously consider a Jones-to-49ers scenario. Alabama head coach Nick Saban recently joined the Dan Patrick Show and shared that neither Lynch nor Shanahan asked him anything about his former quarterback, who helped guide the Crimson Tide to a national championship. And it wasn't because they didn't have an opportunity to do



DUI described as a 'transitional event' for Mac Jones, potential 49ers draft pick

By David Bonilla
Apr 7, 2021

Much has been made of Mac Jones' DUI in 2017. Some would say that not enough has been made of it while evaluating the former Alabama quarterback's character. However, a recent feature from NFL.com sheds some light on the incident and how it altered Jones' path. At the time, Jones was a redshirt freshman and the third quarterback on the depth chart. In the very early hours of November 3, 2017, Jones was involved in a car accident, underwent a sobriety test, and was then arrested for driving under the influence. He was also charged with improper ID by a minor. Fortunately, no one was injured in the incident. "We are disappointed in


Featured

More by Winston Chung

More Articles

Share 49ersWebzone