Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports


San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints odds and pick - Week 10, 2020

Nov 11, 2020 at 8:22 PM0


A depleted San Francisco 49ers team was rendered mostly impotent for most of the game in Week 9, scoring only 3 points for most of their 17-34 loss to the Green Bay Packers, with Green Bay taking its foot off the gas in the 2nd half and Kyle Shanahan inexplicably using time outs to score 14 points in the last 5 minutes of an unwinnable game that went over the total with 4 seconds left. The Niners will travel to Louisiana to take on a New Orleans team that seems to be getting healthy and rounding into form. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Sunday November 15th, 2020 at 1:25 pm PST (FOX)
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Line: 49ers +9 o/u 49

New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints welcomed Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders back to the offense in its most complete and dominant performance of the season, a 38-3 throttling of Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, intercepting Brady three times and holding him scoreless.

After nine weeks, the Saints are ranked 7th in passing offense defense-adjusted value over replacement (DVOA) at 32.0 percent, 12th in rushing offense DVOA at -5.9 percent, and 4th with 30.3 points per game. New Orleans' defense is 9th in passing defense DVOA at -2.3 percent, 5th rushing defense DVOA at -32.0 percent, and 14th with 25.0 points allowed per game.

Drew Brees is 3rd in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 691, 3rd with total quarterback rating (QBR) of 82.9 with 17 touchdowns passing, 3 interceptions, and 2 fumbles lost, completing 74.6 percent of his passes. New Orleans ranks 1st in Football Outsiders DVOA Adjusted for Volatility Early (DAVE) rating at 25.4 percent, 5th in offensive DAVE at 12.5 percent, and 6th in defensive DAVE at -9.8 percent. New Orleans offensive line is ranked 3rd in pass protection and 8th in run blocking, while its defensive line is 4th in adjusted sack rate and 3rd in adjusted line yards. The Saints are 3-5 against the spread (ATS) and 7-1 to the over/under.

San Francisco 49ers
After nine weeks, the Niners offense is 21st in passing offense DVOA at 8.8 percent, 6th in rushing offense DVOA at 1.0 percent, and 18th with 25.0 points per game. San Francisco's defense is 19th in passing defense DVOA at 14.0 percent, 6th in rushing defense DVOA at -23.0 percent, and 10th with 23.0 points allowed per game.

Nick Mullens is 26th in DYAR at 9, 32nd with QBR of 38.6 with 5 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, and two fumbles lost, completing 68.4 percent of his passes. San Francisco ranks 13th in DAVE rating at 2.9 percent, 21st in offensive DAVE at 0.1 percent, and 11th in defensive DAVE at -1.8 percent. San Francisco's offensive line is ranked 19th in pass protection and 18th in run blocking, while its defensive line is 24th in adjusted sack rate and 10th in adjusted line yards. The Niners are 4-5 ATS and 5-4 to the over/under.

Prediction
In analyzing San Francisco's offensive and defensive efficiencies over the past two weeks, it's clear that the Niners are a team in free fall on both sides of the ball. Even before Kendrick Bourne, Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams did not play due to COVID-19 concerns in Week 9, the Niners offense was rendered relatively impotent with those aforementioned players in the game against one of the worst defenses in the league in Seattle in Week 8, and we can see how Kyle Shanahan may have felt compelled to save face and pad his stats by scoring all those garbage time points in the fourth quarter against the Seahawks and Packers.

Now a regressing Nick Mullens and injured 49ers offense will face the best defense they will have faced all season, a Saints defense that completely muzzled Tom Brady, Mike Evans and Bruce Arians' offense, a defense that is starting to get its swagger back.
Brandon Aiyuk should play and Kendrick Bourne could also be back, but we don't see how a San Francisco offense that did nothing against two of the worst defenses in the league in the Packers and Saints will make noise against New Orleans defense.
Michael Thomas is one of best receivers in the NFL and his return completely opened up the offense for Drew Brees and the rest of the Saints offense and they will score plenty of points in Week 10.
While some might expect a let down game for New Orleans after a commanding, prime time, divisional win or a bounce-back for the Niners after such bad losses and with a rest advantage, and even though New Orleans is 2-5 ATS as a favorite and 1-3 ATS as a home team, we could only take the Saints if picking a side in this game as all those previous stats came before Michael Thomas returned. Just as Seattle and Green Bay took big leads in the first half against San Francisco, we expect New Orleans to dominate the first half and would consider taking the Saints in the first half as our best bet.

The score has gone over the total the last three times these two teams have played and New Orleans is 7-0 to the over/under as a favorite and 4-0 to the over/under as the home team. We expect the Saints to dominate this game on both sides of the ball, and while we could see San Francisco getting shut-out if the Saints decide to go revenge mode, Kyle Shanahan will once again do everything humanly possible to maintain his reputation as an offensive guru by selling out to score points, even if they come in garbage time for the third straight game. Pick: Over 49

2020 Season ATS
4-5

Poll

  • What is your best bet for 49ers at Saints on 11/15/20?
  • 49ers +9
  • Saints -9
  • Over 49
  • Under 49
The views within this article are those of the writer and, while just as important, are not necessarily those of the site as a whole.


0 Comments

  • No Comments

Facebook Comments



More San Francisco 49ers News



George Kittle, Jordan Reed, Kendrick Bourne represent 49ers on NFL's top 100 catches of 2020

By Kirk Larrabee
Feb 21, 2021

2020 was a fairly forgettable season for the 49ers, but there were still three catches along the way that were memorable enough to be included in the NFL's collection of the top 100 catches of the year. The collection was released to the NFL's YouTube account on February 19 and included catches from wide receiver Kendrick Bourne, tight end Jordan Reed, and tight end George Kittle, with Reed and Kittle's catches cracking the top 20. Here's a look at the 49ers catches that made their list. C.J. Beathard and Kendrick Bourne's meaningless-but-still-cool Hail Mary completion (ranked 68th overall) This play came as time expired in the 49ers' 41-33 loss to the Dallas Cowboys on December 20. Chances are it would have ranked higher had it



Were you impressed by Fred Warner in 2020? 49ers LB says, "Stay tuned."

By David Bonilla
Feb 23, 2021

According to Pro Football Reference, Fred Warner registered a team-leading and career-high 125 tackles, including five for a loss, in 2020. He added a sack, six passes defensed, two interceptions, and a forced fumble. It was enough to finally earn the San Francisco 49ers linebacker his overdue Pro Bowl and All-Pro nods. Warner has a message for fans and analysts who were impressed by the linebacker's exceptional play — "Stay tuned." Maybe we haven't seen anything yet from the young defensive star. Stay tuned. https://t.co/fTNjunwHG0— Fred Warner



ESPN's Smith and Kellerman have different QB predictions for the 49ers

By David Bonilla
Feb 16, 2021

Stephen A. Smith and Max Kellerman of ESPN's First Take have different predictions on who will start at quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers during the upcoming season. Kellerman often defends Jimmy Garoppolo against Smith's criticisms, so you might naturally assume that Kellerman would predict that San Francisco would avoid shaking things up. You might also assume that the critical Smith predicts that the 49ers move on from Garoppolo. The opposite is true. Smith envisions San Francisco sticking with Garoppolo while Kellerman has another quarterback in mind to lead head coach Kyle Shanahan's offense. "Me personally, I think it's going to be Jimmy G (as the 49ers' starter)," Smith declared. "That's what I believe. I believe that everybody's been



PFF predicts landing spots for 49ers' Trent Williams and Richard Sherman

By David Bonilla
Feb 17, 2021

Anthony Treash of Pro Football Focus provided updated landing spots for the top 50 impending free agents. You might remember the analytics site predicting in January that offensive tackle Trent Williams would return to the San Francisco 49ers on a four-year, $80 million deal with $62.5 million in guarantees. Nothing has changed since then. That remains exactly what Treash predicts for Williams, who is listed as Pro Football Focus' fifth-highest ranked impending free agent. "San Francisco is going to have to work some magic this offseason," explains Treash. "They are projected to have just around $13.5 million in cap space available, but star tackle Trent Williams


Featured

More by Winston Chung

More Articles

Share 49erswebzone