A depleted San Francisco 49ers team was rendered mostly impotent for most of the game in Week 9, scoring only 3 points for most of their 17-34 loss to the Green Bay Packers, with Green Bay taking its foot off the gas in the 2nd half and Kyle Shanahan inexplicably using time outs to score 14 points in the last 5 minutes of an unwinnable game that went over the total with 4 seconds left. The Niners will travel to Louisiana to take on a New Orleans team that seems to be getting healthy and rounding into form. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Sunday November 15th, 2020 at 1:25 pm PST (FOX)
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Line: 49ers +9 o/u 49
New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints welcomed Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders back to the offense in its most complete and dominant performance of the season, a 38-3 throttling of Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, intercepting Brady three times and holding him scoreless.
After nine weeks, the Saints are ranked 7th in passing offense defense-adjusted value over replacement (DVOA) at 32.0 percent, 12th in rushing offense DVOA at -5.9 percent, and 4th with 30.3 points per game. New Orleans' defense is 9th in passing defense DVOA at -2.3 percent, 5th rushing defense DVOA at -32.0 percent, and 14th with 25.0 points allowed per game.
Drew Brees is 3rd in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 691, 3rd with total quarterback rating (QBR) of 82.9 with 17 touchdowns passing, 3 interceptions, and 2 fumbles lost, completing 74.6 percent of his passes. New Orleans ranks 1st in Football Outsiders DVOA Adjusted for Volatility Early (DAVE) rating at 25.4 percent, 5th in offensive DAVE at 12.5 percent, and 6th in defensive DAVE at -9.8 percent. New Orleans offensive line is ranked 3rd in pass protection and 8th in run blocking, while its defensive line is 4th in adjusted sack rate and 3rd in adjusted line yards. The Saints are 3-5 against the spread (ATS) and 7-1 to the over/under.
San Francisco 49ers
After nine weeks, the Niners offense is 21st in passing offense DVOA at 8.8 percent, 6th in rushing offense DVOA at 1.0 percent, and 18th with 25.0 points per game. San Francisco's defense is 19th in passing defense DVOA at 14.0 percent, 6th in rushing defense DVOA at -23.0 percent, and 10th with 23.0 points allowed per game.
Nick Mullens is 26th in DYAR at 9, 32nd with QBR of 38.6 with 5 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, and two fumbles lost, completing 68.4 percent of his passes. San Francisco ranks 13th in DAVE rating at 2.9 percent, 21st in offensive DAVE at 0.1 percent, and 11th in defensive DAVE at -1.8 percent. San Francisco's offensive line is ranked 19th in pass protection and 18th in run blocking, while its defensive line is 24th in adjusted sack rate and 10th in adjusted line yards. The Niners are 4-5 ATS and 5-4 to the over/under.
Prediction
In analyzing San Francisco's offensive and defensive efficiencies over the past two weeks, it's clear that the Niners are a team in free fall on both sides of the ball. Even before Kendrick Bourne, Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams did not play due to COVID-19 concerns in Week 9, the Niners offense was rendered relatively impotent with those aforementioned players in the game against one of the worst defenses in the league in Seattle in Week 8, and we can see how Kyle Shanahan may have felt compelled to save face and pad his stats by scoring all those garbage time points in the fourth quarter against the Seahawks and Packers.
Now a regressing Nick Mullens and injured 49ers offense will face the best defense they will have faced all season, a Saints defense that completely muzzled Tom Brady, Mike Evans and Bruce Arians' offense, a defense that is starting to get its swagger back.
Better luck next year https://t.co/Dox6xiDwpN
— Marshon Lattimore (@shonrp2) November 9, 2020
Brandon Aiyuk should play and Kendrick Bourne could also be back, but we don't see how a San Francisco offense that did nothing against two of the worst defenses in the league in the Packers and Saints will make noise against New Orleans defense.
The #49ers had four offensive stars in their shootout win in New Orleans last season: George Kittle, Emmanuel Sanders, Jimmy Garoppolo and Raheem Mostert. Of that group, only one will be in uniform Sunday: Sanders.
In a Saints uniform.
— Matt Barrows (@mattbarrows) November 11, 2020
Every player was present for Saints practice Wednesday, including new LB Kwon Alexander— peaking and healthy at the same time.
— Mike Triplett (@MikeTriplett) November 11, 2020
While some might expect a let down game for New Orleans after a commanding, prime time, divisional win or a bounce-back for the Niners after such bad losses and with a rest advantage, and even though New Orleans is 2-5 ATS as a favorite and 1-3 ATS as a home team, we could only take the Saints if picking a side in this game as all those previous stats came before Michael Thomas returned. Just as Seattle and Green Bay took big leads in the first half against San Francisco, we expect New Orleans to dominate the first half and would consider taking the Saints in the first half as our best bet.
The score has gone over the total the last three times these two teams have played and New Orleans is 7-0 to the over/under as a favorite and 4-0 to the over/under as the home team. We expect the Saints to dominate this game on both sides of the ball, and while we could see San Francisco getting shut-out if the Saints decide to go revenge mode, Kyle Shanahan will once again do everything humanly possible to maintain his reputation as an offensive guru by selling out to score points, even if they come in garbage time for the third straight game. Pick: Over 49
2020 Season ATS
4-5
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