Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports


San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints odds and pick - Week 10, 2020

Nov 11, 2020 at 8:22 PM0


A depleted San Francisco 49ers team was rendered mostly impotent for most of the game in Week 9, scoring only 3 points for most of their 17-34 loss to the Green Bay Packers, with Green Bay taking its foot off the gas in the 2nd half and Kyle Shanahan inexplicably using time outs to score 14 points in the last 5 minutes of an unwinnable game that went over the total with 4 seconds left. The Niners will travel to Louisiana to take on a New Orleans team that seems to be getting healthy and rounding into form. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Sunday November 15th, 2020 at 1:25 pm PST (FOX)
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Line: 49ers +9 o/u 49

New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints welcomed Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders back to the offense in its most complete and dominant performance of the season, a 38-3 throttling of Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, intercepting Brady three times and holding him scoreless.

After nine weeks, the Saints are ranked 7th in passing offense defense-adjusted value over replacement (DVOA) at 32.0 percent, 12th in rushing offense DVOA at -5.9 percent, and 4th with 30.3 points per game. New Orleans' defense is 9th in passing defense DVOA at -2.3 percent, 5th rushing defense DVOA at -32.0 percent, and 14th with 25.0 points allowed per game.

Drew Brees is 3rd in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 691, 3rd with total quarterback rating (QBR) of 82.9 with 17 touchdowns passing, 3 interceptions, and 2 fumbles lost, completing 74.6 percent of his passes. New Orleans ranks 1st in Football Outsiders DVOA Adjusted for Volatility Early (DAVE) rating at 25.4 percent, 5th in offensive DAVE at 12.5 percent, and 6th in defensive DAVE at -9.8 percent. New Orleans offensive line is ranked 3rd in pass protection and 8th in run blocking, while its defensive line is 4th in adjusted sack rate and 3rd in adjusted line yards. The Saints are 3-5 against the spread (ATS) and 7-1 to the over/under.

San Francisco 49ers
After nine weeks, the Niners offense is 21st in passing offense DVOA at 8.8 percent, 6th in rushing offense DVOA at 1.0 percent, and 18th with 25.0 points per game. San Francisco's defense is 19th in passing defense DVOA at 14.0 percent, 6th in rushing defense DVOA at -23.0 percent, and 10th with 23.0 points allowed per game.

Nick Mullens is 26th in DYAR at 9, 32nd with QBR of 38.6 with 5 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, and two fumbles lost, completing 68.4 percent of his passes. San Francisco ranks 13th in DAVE rating at 2.9 percent, 21st in offensive DAVE at 0.1 percent, and 11th in defensive DAVE at -1.8 percent. San Francisco's offensive line is ranked 19th in pass protection and 18th in run blocking, while its defensive line is 24th in adjusted sack rate and 10th in adjusted line yards. The Niners are 4-5 ATS and 5-4 to the over/under.

Prediction
In analyzing San Francisco's offensive and defensive efficiencies over the past two weeks, it's clear that the Niners are a team in free fall on both sides of the ball. Even before Kendrick Bourne, Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams did not play due to COVID-19 concerns in Week 9, the Niners offense was rendered relatively impotent with those aforementioned players in the game against one of the worst defenses in the league in Seattle in Week 8, and we can see how Kyle Shanahan may have felt compelled to save face and pad his stats by scoring all those garbage time points in the fourth quarter against the Seahawks and Packers.

Now a regressing Nick Mullens and injured 49ers offense will face the best defense they will have faced all season, a Saints defense that completely muzzled Tom Brady, Mike Evans and Bruce Arians' offense, a defense that is starting to get its swagger back.
Brandon Aiyuk should play and Kendrick Bourne could also be back, but we don't see how a San Francisco offense that did nothing against two of the worst defenses in the league in the Packers and Saints will make noise against New Orleans defense.
Michael Thomas is one of best receivers in the NFL and his return completely opened up the offense for Drew Brees and the rest of the Saints offense and they will score plenty of points in Week 10.
While some might expect a let down game for New Orleans after a commanding, prime time, divisional win or a bounce-back for the Niners after such bad losses and with a rest advantage, and even though New Orleans is 2-5 ATS as a favorite and 1-3 ATS as a home team, we could only take the Saints if picking a side in this game as all those previous stats came before Michael Thomas returned. Just as Seattle and Green Bay took big leads in the first half against San Francisco, we expect New Orleans to dominate the first half and would consider taking the Saints in the first half as our best bet.

The score has gone over the total the last three times these two teams have played and New Orleans is 7-0 to the over/under as a favorite and 4-0 to the over/under as the home team. We expect the Saints to dominate this game on both sides of the ball, and while we could see San Francisco getting shut-out if the Saints decide to go revenge mode, Kyle Shanahan will once again do everything humanly possible to maintain his reputation as an offensive guru by selling out to score points, even if they come in garbage time for the third straight game. Pick: Over 49

2020 Season ATS
4-5

Poll

  • What is your best bet for 49ers at Saints on 11/15/20?
  • 49ers +9
  • Saints -9
  • Over 49
  • Under 49
The views within this article are those of the writer and, while just as important, are not necessarily those of the site as a whole.


0 Comments

  • No Comments

Facebook Comments



More San Francisco 49ers News



San Francisco 49ers vs Buffalo Bills odds and pick - Week 13, 2020

By Winston Chung
11 hrs ago

The San Francisco 49ers showed resilience, poise, and an outstanding defensive game plan in sweeping the division-rival Los Angeles Rams for the second straight season, this year taking the second game by a 23-20 score in Southern California. As if 2020 had not been unpredictable enough for San Francisco, the Niners have been banned from their Santa Clara facilities due to COVID-19 concerns and will now host a Monday night game in Glendale Arizona against the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective. When: Monday December 7th, 2020 at 5:15 pm PST (ESPN/ABC) Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona Line: 49ers +1, o/u 48 Buffalo

Read the Full Article


49ers' Jimmie Ward and Fred Warner fined a total of $21,450 for plays vs. Saints

By David Bonilla
Nov 21, 2020

Two San Francisco 49ers players were fined as a result of plays from last weekend's loss against the New Orleans Saints, according to a report from NBC Sports Bay Area. Safety Jimmie Ward was fined $15,000 for unnecessary roughness on his hit on Saints wide receiver Tre'Quan Smith, who suffered a concussion. The league also fined linebacker Fred Warner $6,450 for his grab at the face mask of wide receiver Deonte Harris. #49ers Jimmie Ward was fined $15,000 for unnecessary roughness for his hit on

Read the Full Article


Kyle Juszczyk is the 49ers' nominee for the 2020 Art Rooney Sportsmanship Award

By David Bonilla
9 hrs ago

Fullback Kyle Juszczyk is the San Francisco 49ers' nominee for the seventh annual Art Rooney Sportsmanship Award. The award, created after the 2014 season, is presented annually to an NFL player who best demonstrates the qualities of on-field sportsmanship, including fair play, respect for the game and opponents, and integrity in competition. The winner will be announced at the NFL Honors presentation before the Super Bowl, and he will receive a $25,000 donation from the NFL Foundation to a charity of his choice. No 49ers player has ever won the award. Washington Football Team running back Adrian Peterson was last year's recipient. San Francisco signed Juszczyk in 2017 after the fullback spent his first four NFL seasons with the Baltimore Ravens. He

Read the Full Article

Featured

More Featured Stories

More by Winston Chung

All Articles by Winston Chung

More Articles

All Articles
Share 49erswebzone