Niners Empire may have to temper expectations for the season after the San Francisco 49ers were humbled and brought back down to earth in a 27-37 loss that was pretty much dominated by the Seattle Seahawks on both sides of the ball from start to finish. Making things worse, George Kittle is confirmed out for eight weeks with a broken bone in his foot as the 49ers face a short week of preparation before taking on Aaron Rodgers and the NFC Central-leading Green Bay Packers, who are also coming off of an embarrassing loss to a division rival. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Thursday November 5th, 2020 at 5:20 pm PST (FOX/NFL)
Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Line: 49ers +6.5, o/u 49
Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers seemingly could not stop a Vikings offense that was centered around Dalvin Cook, who scored 4 touchdowns on 163 yards rushing and 63 yards receiving in a 22-28 game.
After eight weeks, the Packers are ranked 4th in passing offense defense-adjusted value over replacement (DVOA) at 43.8 percent, 9th in rushing offense DVOA at -2.6 percent, and 3rd with 31.3 points per game. Green Bay's defense is 25th in passing defense DVOA at 18.6 percent, 22nd in rushing defense DVOA at -1.3 percent, and 20th with 26.7 points allowed per game.
Aaron Rodgers is 3rd in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 658, 2nd with total quarterback rating (QBR) of 83.5 with 20 touchdowns passing, 2 interceptions, and one fumble lost, completing 66.4 percent of his passes. Green Bay ranks 9th in Football Outsiders DVOA Adjusted for Volatility Early (DAVE) rating at 8.7 percent, 3rd in offensive DAVE at 15.3 percent, and 28th in defensive DAVE at 7.1 percent. Green Bay's offensive line is ranked 3rd in pass protection and 6th in run blocking, while its defensive line is 7th in adjusted sack rate and 25th in adjusted line yards. The Packers are 5-2 against the spread (ATS) and 4-3 to the over/under.
San Francisco 49ers
After eight weeks, the Niners offense is 16th in passing offense DVOA at 17.5 percent, 6th in rushing offense DVOA at 2.4 percent, and 15th with 26.0 points per game. San Francisco's defense is 17th in passing defense DVOA at 10.9 percent, 7th in rushing defense DVOA at -23.2 percent, and 10th with 21.6 points allowed per game.
Nick Mullens is 25th in DYAR at 40, 30th with QBR of 45.2 with 4 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and one fumble lost, completing 70.4 percent of his passes. San Francisco ranks 12th in DAVE rating at 2.8 percent, 8th in offensive DAVE at 6.0 percent, and 11th in defensive DAVE at -3.2 percent. San Francisco's offensive line is ranked 20th in pass protection and 16th in run blocking, while its defensive line is 24th in adjusted sack rate and 10th in adjusted line yards. The Niners are 4-4 ATS and 4-4 to the over/under.
Prediction
As if 2020 had not already ravaged the 49ers with enough critical injuries, Jimmy Garoppolo will join George Kittle on Injured Reserve for possibly the rest of the season, making it almost seem like trading Kwon Alexander to the New Orleans Saints represented San Francisco waving the white flag on a nightmare of a season that has gone beyond the garden variety Super Bowl Hangover.
#49ers 2020:
Nick Bosa (ACL)
— Chris Biderman (@ChrisBiderman) November 2, 2020
George Kittle (knee, foot)
Richard Sherman (calf)
Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle)
Deebo Samuel (foot, hamstring)
Raheem Mostert (ankle)
K'Waun Williams (calf, knee)
Dee Ford (back)
Solomon Thomas (ACL)
Jalen Hurd (ACL)
Jordan Reed (knee)
Tevin Coleman (knee)
Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to be sidelined a minimum of six weeks and possibly longer if surgery is needed, per source.
George Kittle is out eight weeks with a broken bone in his foot, which means his season could be over.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 2, 2020
Not a lot of changes to the Packers' Thursday injury report. TE Marcedes Lewis (knee) did not participate in padded practice. TE Robert Tonyan (ankle/knee) was a full participant. pic.twitter.com/0d8UAa4b4A
— Olivia Reiner (@ReinerOlivia) October 29, 2020
The Niners have fought hard despite all the injuries this season, and injuries are a part of this brutal game, but at some point the critical mass of injuries to key players is insurmountable and losing Kittle and Jimmy in the spirit-crushing loss to Seattle feels like the straws that broke the proverbial camel's back on this season.
San Francisco has owned Aaron Rodgers the last two times they have played but Rodgers, Davante Adams, and the Green Bay offense are playing at a very high level this season. Tampa Bay showed the blueprint for shutting down Rodgers and the Green Bay offense in holding them to ten points by being the more physical team, as did Minnesota in the second half of Week 8. While we expect San Francisco's defense to show some backbone and a physical presence at home on Thursday after getting shredded by Russell Wilson and DK Metcalf, we expect an angry Aaron Rodgers coming off a loss to find ways to score more than he has in his last two at Levi's against Saleh's defense that has been without Nick Bosa, DeForest Buckner, Richard Sherman, Jaquiski Tartt, and Richard Sherman.
As evidenced by Minnesota having its way last week at Lambeau Field, Green Bay's defense is porous, 22nd against the run and 25th against the pass. Following the path that was just steamrolled by Dalvin Cook against the Packers defense, Kyle Shanahan should find ways to get JaMycal Hasty and his run game and offense going.
Per league source, Trent Williams, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel (was already out - hamstring) were close contacts of Kendrick Bourne and will not play Thursday.
— Matt Barrows (@mattbarrows) November 5, 2020
UPDATE: After Kendrick Bourne tested positive for COVID-19 and we learned that Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk would also be held out of Thursday's game, we downgrade San Francisco's offense to the point where the Niners defense will need to step up even more in what we now see as a lower scoring game. Pick: Under 49
2020 Season ATS
4-4
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