Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports


San Francisco 49ers vs Green Bay Packers odds and pick - Week 9, 2020

Nov 3, 2020 at 4:24 PM0


Niners Empire may have to temper expectations for the season after the San Francisco 49ers were humbled and brought back down to earth in a 27-37 loss that was pretty much dominated by the Seattle Seahawks on both sides of the ball from start to finish. Making things worse, George Kittle is confirmed out for eight weeks with a broken bone in his foot as the 49ers face a short week of preparation before taking on Aaron Rodgers and the NFC Central-leading Green Bay Packers, who are also coming off of an embarrassing loss to a division rival. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Thursday November 5th, 2020 at 5:20 pm PST (FOX/NFL)
Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Line: 49ers +6.5, o/u 49

Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers seemingly could not stop a Vikings offense that was centered around Dalvin Cook, who scored 4 touchdowns on 163 yards rushing and 63 yards receiving in a 22-28 game.

After eight weeks, the Packers are ranked 4th in passing offense defense-adjusted value over replacement (DVOA) at 43.8 percent, 9th in rushing offense DVOA at -2.6 percent, and 3rd with 31.3 points per game. Green Bay's defense is 25th in passing defense DVOA at 18.6 percent, 22nd in rushing defense DVOA at -1.3 percent, and 20th with 26.7 points allowed per game.

Aaron Rodgers is 3rd in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 658, 2nd with total quarterback rating (QBR) of 83.5 with 20 touchdowns passing, 2 interceptions, and one fumble lost, completing 66.4 percent of his passes. Green Bay ranks 9th in Football Outsiders DVOA Adjusted for Volatility Early (DAVE) rating at 8.7 percent, 3rd in offensive DAVE at 15.3 percent, and 28th in defensive DAVE at 7.1 percent. Green Bay's offensive line is ranked 3rd in pass protection and 6th in run blocking, while its defensive line is 7th in adjusted sack rate and 25th in adjusted line yards. The Packers are 5-2 against the spread (ATS) and 4-3 to the over/under.

San Francisco 49ers
After eight weeks, the Niners offense is 16th in passing offense DVOA at 17.5 percent, 6th in rushing offense DVOA at 2.4 percent, and 15th with 26.0 points per game. San Francisco's defense is 17th in passing defense DVOA at 10.9 percent, 7th in rushing defense DVOA at -23.2 percent, and 10th with 21.6 points allowed per game.

Nick Mullens is 25th in DYAR at 40, 30th with QBR of 45.2 with 4 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and one fumble lost, completing 70.4 percent of his passes. San Francisco ranks 12th in DAVE rating at 2.8 percent, 8th in offensive DAVE at 6.0 percent, and 11th in defensive DAVE at -3.2 percent. San Francisco's offensive line is ranked 20th in pass protection and 16th in run blocking, while its defensive line is 24th in adjusted sack rate and 10th in adjusted line yards. The Niners are 4-4 ATS and 4-4 to the over/under.

Prediction
As if 2020 had not already ravaged the 49ers with enough critical injuries, Jimmy Garoppolo will join George Kittle on Injured Reserve for possibly the rest of the season, making it almost seem like trading Kwon Alexander to the New Orleans Saints represented San Francisco waving the white flag on a nightmare of a season that has gone beyond the garden variety Super Bowl Hangover.
Green Bay Packers running back A.J. Dillon tested positive for COVID-19 and will not play Thursday, and running back Jamal Williams and linebacker Kamal Martin are considered contacts for Dillon and were held out of practice on Tuesday.
The Niners have fought hard despite all the injuries this season, and injuries are a part of this brutal game, but at some point the critical mass of injuries to key players is insurmountable and losing Kittle and Jimmy in the spirit-crushing loss to Seattle feels like the straws that broke the proverbial camel's back on this season.

San Francisco has owned Aaron Rodgers the last two times they have played but Rodgers, Davante Adams, and the Green Bay offense are playing at a very high level this season. Tampa Bay showed the blueprint for shutting down Rodgers and the Green Bay offense in holding them to ten points by being the more physical team, as did Minnesota in the second half of Week 8. While we expect San Francisco's defense to show some backbone and a physical presence at home on Thursday after getting shredded by Russell Wilson and DK Metcalf, we expect an angry Aaron Rodgers coming off a loss to find ways to score more than he has in his last two at Levi's against Saleh's defense that has been without Nick Bosa, DeForest Buckner, Richard Sherman, Jaquiski Tartt, and Richard Sherman.

As evidenced by Minnesota having its way last week at Lambeau Field, Green Bay's defense is porous, 22nd against the run and 25th against the pass. Following the path that was just steamrolled by Dalvin Cook against the Packers defense, Kyle Shanahan should find ways to get JaMycal Hasty and his run game and offense going.
UPDATE: After Kendrick Bourne tested positive for COVID-19 and we learned that Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk would also be held out of Thursday's game, we downgrade San Francisco's offense to the point where the Niners defense will need to step up even more in what we now see as a lower scoring game. Pick: Under 49

2020 Season ATS
4-4

Poll

  • What is your best bet for 49ers vs Packers on 11/5/20?
  • 49ers +6.5
  • Packers -6.5
  • Over 49
  • Under 49
The views within this article are those of the writer and, while just as important, are not necessarily those of the site as a whole.


0 Comments

  • No Comments

Facebook Comments



More San Francisco 49ers News



George Kittle, Jordan Reed, Kendrick Bourne represent 49ers on NFL's top 100 catches of 2020

By Kirk Larrabee
Feb 21, 2021

2020 was a fairly forgettable season for the 49ers, but there were still three catches along the way that were memorable enough to be included in the NFL's collection of the top 100 catches of the year. The collection was released to the NFL's YouTube account on February 19 and included catches from wide receiver Kendrick Bourne, tight end Jordan Reed, and tight end George Kittle, with Reed and Kittle's catches cracking the top 20. Here's a look at the 49ers catches that made their list. C.J. Beathard and Kendrick Bourne's meaningless-but-still-cool Hail Mary completion (ranked 68th overall) This play came as time expired in the 49ers' 41-33 loss to the Dallas Cowboys on December 20. Chances are it would have ranked higher had it



Were you impressed by Fred Warner in 2020? 49ers LB says, "Stay tuned."

By David Bonilla
Feb 23, 2021

According to Pro Football Reference, Fred Warner registered a team-leading and career-high 125 tackles, including five for a loss, in 2020. He added a sack, six passes defensed, two interceptions, and a forced fumble. It was enough to finally earn the San Francisco 49ers linebacker his overdue Pro Bowl and All-Pro nods. Warner has a message for fans and analysts who were impressed by the linebacker's exceptional play — "Stay tuned." Maybe we haven't seen anything yet from the young defensive star. Stay tuned. https://t.co/fTNjunwHG0— Fred Warner



Spotrac predicts some key 49ers free agency comings and goings

By Kirk Larrabee
Feb 20, 2021

What might things look like for the San Francisco 49ers after the first wave of free agency? Time will tell, but one possible scenario was laid forth by sports financial analysis website Spotrac earlier this week. Spotrac operator Michael Ginnitti posted a long list of free agency projections on February 17, which included guesses for salaries and destinations of the top impending free agents across the NFL. Ginnitti included two 49ers among his guesses -- offensive tackle Trent Williams and cornerback Richard Sherman -- while also projecting three other free agents to wind up in San Francisco. Ginnitti's projections on Williams and Sherman aren't



Seahawks LB and impending free agent K.J. Wright sees no issues with 49ers

By David Bonilla
Feb 26, 2021

Seattle Seahawks fans already had to endure three years of watching cornerback Richard Sherman in red and gold, which looks less odd now than it did when he made his San Francisco 49ers debut. Could the Pacific Northwest handle another fan-favorite crossing over to the division rival? If you think the 49ers will have to do some creative maneuvering to stay under the salary cap — whatever the limit ends up being — the rest of the NFC West is in worse situations. San Francisco's over $13 million in projected cap space leads the division, per OverTheCap.com. The Arizona Cardinals look to have under $12 million, the Seattle Seahawks just over $4 million, and the Los Angeles Rams — well, they


Featured

More by Winston Chung

More Articles

Share 49erswebzone