Nick Mullens snuffed out any quarterback controversy, reminding a nation why he is a back-up with insecure, erroneous play that significantly contributed to the San Francisco 49ers 20-25 home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 4. The Niners are hoping to have Jimmy Garoppolo and Raheem Mostert back this week and are once again favored by a lot of points at home against a team they should beat in the Miami Dolphins. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Sunday October 11th, 2020 at 1:05 pm PST (FOX)
Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Line: 49ers -8, o/u 46.5
Miami fell to 1-3 following a 23-31 loss to Seattle. Despite the cries for Tua, head coach Brian Flores will stick with Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Brian Flores says he believes Ryan Fitzpatrick still gives the Dolphins the best chance to win despite some rough moments. He says Tua isn't "ready just yet" to be the starter.
— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) October 7, 2020
After four weeks, the Dolphins offense is 23rd in yards per game, 20th in passing yards per game, 21st in rushing yards per game and 27th in points per game. Miami's defense is 28th in yards conceded per game, 28th in passing yards given up per game, 20th in rushing yards surrendered per game and 24th in points allowed per game.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is 24th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR), 9th in total quarterback rating (QBR) with 5 touchdowns, 5 interceptions and zero fumbles lost. Miami ranks 26th with an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) score of -3.5 and 28th in Football Outsiders DVOA Adjusted for Volatility Early (DAVE) rating at -14.1 percent, 25th in offensive DAVE at -7.1 percent, and 31st in defensive DAVE at 8.4 percent. Miami's offensive line is ranked 11th in pass protection and 27th in run blocking, while its defensive line is 13th in adjusted sack rate and 24th in adjusted line yards. The Dolphins are 2-2 against the spread (ATS) and 1-3 to the over/under.
San Francisco 49ers
The Niners outgained the Eagles 417 yards to 267 yards, and still lost the game with the critical turnovers from the quarterback and poor offensive line protection playing major roles.
After four weeks, the Niners offense is 11th in yards per game, 12th in passing yards per game, 11th in rushing yards per game, and 11th in points per game. San Francisco's defense is 3rd in yard conceded per game, 2nd in passing yards given up per game, 15th in rushing yards surrendered per game, and 3rd in points allowed per game.
Jimmy Garoppolo is 18th in DYAR, 7th in QBR with 4 touchdowns, zero interceptions and zero fumbles lost. San Francisco ranks 3rd with an ESPN FPI score of 5.5 and 9th in DAVE rating at 7.3 percent, 16th in offensive DAVE at 1.7 percent, and 5th in defensive DAVE at -5.5 percent. San Francisco's offensive line is ranked 21st in pass protection and 31st in run blocking, while its defensive line is 19th in adjusted sack rate and 5th in adjusted line yards. The Niners are 2-2 ATS and 2-2 to the over/under.
Prediction
After missing a lot of easy opportunities and sustaining self-inflicted damage on their home field, the Niners and Kyle Shanahan are likely chomping at the bit to get the taste of last week's debacle out of their mouths and remind everyone why they belong in the discussion of contenders. But their ability to do so will once again be influenced by injuries to key players on both sides of the ball. Actions speak louder than words and Shanahan's pulling of Mullens for C.J. Beathard showed how disappointed he was in what happened last week, and if he gets Garoppolo and Raheem Mostert back to join a fully dominant George Kittle, Miami's defense will get rolled.
Big picture: After so many waves of negative news, today's the biggest Arrow-Up of 49ers' season:
-Garoppolo, Mostert both back to practice. If cleared (TBD) 49ers will have best offensive arsenal to date
-#31-ranked MIA D next. Aligning for 49ers to get right ahead of gauntlet
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) October 7, 2020
If Jimmy and Raheem return for Week 5, we expect the 49ers to put up a lot of points. After getting shredded by Kyler Murray and the Cardinals, San Francisco's defense has played at a high level against weak offenses in the Jets, Giants and the Eagles. Miami is no offensive juggernaut but does have a higher offensive rating than Philadelphia and Fitzpatrick may be more likely to connect with Mike Gesicki and Devante Parker with San Francisco's secondary decimated.
No Jimmie Ward (wrist), Dontae Johnson (groin) Emmanuel Moseley (protocol) and K'Waun Williams (knee, headed to IR this week) at 49ers practice today. Sherman isn't expected back until next week.
SF secondary even more beaten up now — hence the importance of offensive returns
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) October 7, 2020
Barring unforeseen injuries or personnel changes, we anticipate that San Francisco and its offense get back on track in Week 5 and beat the Dolphins. Robert Saleh is doing an outstanding job despite all the injuries, but the Niners defense might be a bit overvalued after playing the 27th, 30th and 31st ranked offenses in the NFL and may be susceptible to giving up a decent chunk of points this Sunday. Pick: Over 46.5
2020 Season ATS:
1-3