The San Francisco 49ers bounced back with an easy 31-13 win and against-the-spread (ATS) cover over the New York Jets in Week 2 but sustained potentially season-altering injuries in the process, injuries that will impact the complexion of the 49ers starters in Week 3. San Francisco will remain on the East Coast and the same, treacherous stadium field on Sunday against a winless New York Giants team. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Sunday September 27th, 2020 at 10:00am PT (FOX)
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Line: 49ers -4, o/u 41.5
New York Giants
The New York football Giants lost 13-17 at the Chicago Bears and also lost major players in Week 2, Saquon Barkley's season ending with a torn ACL and Sterling Shepard going on Injured Reserve (IR) for turf toe. The Giants signed Devonta Freeman earlier this week. Prior to the season, starting left tackle Nate Solder and cornerback Sam Beal opted out and cornerback DeAndre Baker was waived for his legal issues.
After two weeks, quarterback Daniel Jones has completed 64.6 percent of his passes with 2 touchdowns, 3 interceptions and a fumble lost. New York has an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) score of -5.3 and Football Outsiders DVOA Adjusted for Volatility Early (DAVE) rating of -9.1%. The Giants are 1-1 ATS and 0-2 to the Over/Under (o/u).
San Francisco
The field at MetLife Stadium massacred the anterior cruciate ligaments of defensive linemen Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas, ending their seasons, while D.J. Jones is listed as probable for Sunday. Richard Sherman remains on IR, cornerback Jason Verrett is probable, Dee Ford is out and Dre Greenlaw is questionable with a thigh contusion.
Jimmy Garoppolo and Raheem Mostert were outstanding in Week 2 before exiting the game, and their questionable statuses for Sunday, in addition to an already depleted receiving corp, leads to some concern about the Niners' offensive potency. Even though George Kittle is listed as probable, one has to wonder how effective he will be based on how he played during the second half in Week 1. Nick Mullens was 8/11 for 71 yards and an interception in Week 2.
The Niners have an ESPN FPI score of 4.6 and DAVE rating of 3.1 percent and are 1-1 ATS and 1-1 o/u.
Prediction
A major storyline heading into Sunday's game is the catastrophic injuries to star players on both teams, but San Francisco has been most acutely ravaged by injury. Although it is always next man up in Kyle Shanahan's offense, different players stepping into roles this week or injured players trying to play through pain could have an impact on timing and cohesion on both sides of the ball.
The Niners stayed on the East Coast this past week to avoid traveling back and forth across the country, but back-to-back road games can be a challenge, perhaps more so when it is on a field that ended people's seasons last week. Nick Mullens has won games for San Francisco before but never on the road, and New York with a depleted roster might not be the most likely spot for a breakout performance from Mullens if he does get the start.
Whether it is Jimmy Garoppolo playing with lingering pain or discomfort or Nick Mullens starting on the road, San Francisco's injuries are too many to not have some impact on this game Sunday. The Giants will miss Barkley and Shepard and they are also thin at cornerback but this is a winless team playing at home with a young quarterback who will be desperate to try and prove he belongs.
We expect San Francisco to emphasize ball control with the running game and the Giants to try and exploit the Niners secondary with shots to Darius Slayton, Golden Tate, and Evan Engram. San Francisco's pass rush has not been the same this year so far without DeForest Buckner and it will be a shell of its former self without Nick Bosa or Dee Ford on Sunday, possibly leaving Daniel Jones with a little more time to make plays, ever more so if Dre Greenlaw doesn't play or is limited.
In a game with so many injuries and questions about how things will flow with the replacements or returning players on Sunday, we expect a close game, during which points will come at a premium, leaving the value on the underdog in this match up. Pick: Giants +4
2020 Season ATS
1-1
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