"February is always a bad month for TV sports. Football is gone, basketball is plodding along in the annual mid-season doldrums, and baseball is not even mentioned." – Hunter S. Thompson
Welcome to the slow season.
The confetti that fell from the robotic roof of Mercedes-Ben Stadium may mean joy to our new NFL champion, but to me, it's the dawn of people pointlessly predicting win-loss records and ESPN defrosting Mel Kiper from his cryogenic freeze to build 438 mock draft boards.
Last season, the San Francisco 49ers were riding high on the hype train as they entered the 2018 season. A plague of injuries and a lack of overall ability with the second- and third-team resulted in a rough four-win season.
General manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan were the right men to pull the 49ers' leaky and childish front office from an ugly place. Their infectious attitudes have reignited a fan base, and have people looking forward to competitive football.
However, the new regime has failed to break .500, making this offseason a critical juncture for both men. A rebuild isn't complete until the fans sitting under the sweltering sun see a 12-win team.
The previous strategy of building a roster on the cheap must be purged from the minds of the 49ers' executive team. It hasn't worked, and it's led to playing men who have no business being on an NFL roster.
With roughly $60 million in cap space according to OverTheCap.com, it's time to bring in blue-chip talent on both sides of the ball. A championship squad cannot be built on the hope that a practice squad player will blossom into a Hall of Fame legend.
Over the next few weeks, I'll review each position group and share who I think will end up staying and who the 49ers need to target in free agency and the draft.
The 49ers' secondary might have had the roughest year out of any position group. Before the start of the season, it appeared as if the cover men were destined for a top three pass defense. Veteran cornerback Richard Sherman's experience, leadership, and swagger, mixed with younger players like Adrian Colbert, Jaquaski Tartt, and Ahkello Witherspoon felt like the right combination.
Colbert, Tartt, Witherspoon, and safety Jimmie Ward all ended up on injured reserve, forcing Shanahan and defensive coordinator Robert Saleh to start unprepared rookies and practice squad journeymen.
However, Shanahan and the coaching staff deserve a gold mine of credit for what they were able to do with the secondary scrap heap of the NFL. The 49ers' pass defense ranked 11th in the NFL, six spots ahead of the Seattle Seahawks and outranked the Kansas City Chiefs by 20 places.
Lynch, Shanahan, and Saleh have a lot of what-ifs to contemplate as they begin to fine tune the secondary. I know it's February, but here's who I believe they'll keep:
Adrian Colbert
Antone Exum, Jr.
Tavarius Moore
Marcell Harris
Richard Sherman
Jaquiski Tartt
K'Waun Williams
Ahkello Witherspoon
Here are the players I believe they'll release or not resign:
D.J. Reed, Jr.
Godwin Igwebuilke
Greg Mabin
Emmanuel Mosley
Tyvis Powell
Tyree Robinson
Jimmie Ward
Terrell Williams, Jr.
Free Agent Targets
Obvious: Safety Earl Thomas
After watching the 49er safeties struggle in coverage or just stand around in the endzone and not move, I wanted to see Lynch bring in Earl Thomas from Seattle.
Safety Adrian Colbert was having an atrocious season, which included giving up a 75-yard touchdown to open the Week 5 contest against Arizona. Even though Colbert only played 20 percent of 1,119 snaps, his Pro Football Focus grades placed him dead last in coverage and defense among his fellow safeties.
Thomas' skill on the field and mastery of Saleh's system are too valuable for the 49ers to ignore. He'd be a significant upgrade over Colbert and may help Tartt better understand the subtler nuances of the various coverages.
Darkhorse: Safety Landon Collins
If Thomas is unavailable, then safety Landon Collins might be the right addition to the secondary. Collins earned grades over 80 from Pro Football Focus in 2016 and 2017 but slipped to 70.4 last season.
Even with a decline in play, and missing the last four games of the season due to a partially torn labrum, he still earned a far higher grade than any safety on the 49ers' roster.
However, Collins has stated he'd like to stay in New York, even if he has to play under the franchise tag.
Draft Prospects
Deandre Baker, CB – Georgia
The top priority for the 49ers in this year's draft needs to be an edge rusher. The entire known universe is aware of how badly the team needs a capable body to dominate the end of the line of scrimmage.
However, there is a long time between now and the end of April and the 49ers may move many possible choices around on the draft board depending on the combine, interviews, and miles of film.
If Lynch and Shanahan wanted to start rebuilding the secondary, they could choose to trade back a few spots and pick up University of Georgia cornerback Deandre Baker.
Baker is an Associated Press All-America first-team player and the winner of the 2018 Jim Thorpe Award for the best defensive back in college football. He appeared in 51 games for the Bulldogs and made 36 starts.
What's unknown is how the 49ers and the other 31 teams feel about Baker skipping both the Sugar Bowl and Senior Bowl. But, these factors of a player's character and thought process are probably ironed out during meetings with teams.
He also had downfield coverage issues and is only 5'11 and 185 pounds. These factors have me wary of the 49ers taking a chance on another defensive back who isn't feared by the opposition.
Second/Third Round: Julian Love, CB – Notre Dame
The 49ers are currently slotted to pick fifth in the second round of the draft, which may allow them to choose cornerback Julian Love from Notre Dame.
Love played 38 games for the Irish, racking up 126 solo tackles and five interceptions. His 44 pass break-ups place him first in school history. Love had a 14-tackle game against Navy during the 2017 season and tallied 12 against USC on November 24, 2018.
Two issues that may cause Lynch to skip over Love are his size and problems in press coverage. But I am a firm believer that a pro coaching staff can help a young man like Love train and eat right to put on weight.
The 49ers' struggles with the secondary were not fully on one man's shoulders. Shanahan and Saleh made the needed adjustments, and I'm impressed with what they did with the little talent on the roster. Saleh does need to find new methods to bring Adrian Colbert and Ahkello Witherspoon up to their potential.
Rebuilding starts with signing Thomas and hopefully drafting Love. Both men will drive the offseason and training camp competition, making the unit much stronger.