The San Francisco 49ers played sloppily and got throttled accordingly at home against the Rams last Sunday. Jobs are now on the line as they begin a stretch against the worst teams in the NFL, starting with the Arizona Cardinals this Sunday. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Sunday October 28th, 2018 at 1:25 pm PST (FOX)
Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Line: Cardinals -1, total at 43
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are also coming off an embarrassing home loss to face the only team they have beaten this season. The Cardinals' offense is 32nd with 220.7 yards per game and 31st with 13.1 points per game, with a 31st ranked offensive DVOA-Adjusted for Variation Early (DAVE) rating of -34.3 percent. Arizona's offense is 31st and 32nd in passing and rushing yards per game, respectively.
The Cardinals' defense is 24th with 382.1 yards conceded per game and 23rd with 26.3 points given up per game, good for an 11th ranked defensive DAVE rating of -4.2 percent. Arizona's defense is 11th and 32nd in passing and rushing defense, respectively.
Josh Rosen is 32nd with a DYAR of -206 and 31st with a total QBR of 35.6. The Cardinals are 3-3-1 ATS and 3-4 to the over/under with their last 3 going over the total.
San Francisco 49ers
The Niners once again let turnovers and sloppy play doom them at home in a game for which the outcome was never in question. The 49ers' offense is 21st with 359.9 yards per game and 20th with 22.6 points per game, and a 28th ranked offensive DAVE rating of -14.5 percent. San Francisco's offense is 23rd and 2nd in passing and rushing yards per game, respectively.
San Francisco's defense is 19th with 370.6 yards given up per game and 31st with 31.1 points allowed per game, corresponding with a 23rd ranked defensive DAVE rating of 3.6 percent. The Niners' defense is 20th and 23th in passing and rushing defense, respectively.
C.J. Beathard is 31st with a DYAR of -170 and 25th with a total QBR of 44.8. The 49ers are 2-5 ATS and 5-2 to the over/under.
Prediction
This game is literally the battle of the bottom of the barrel. At this point in each team's season, it's reasonable to consider tanking like the Raiders have begun to do in anticipation of improving their draft position in 2019. But Arizona has a first year head coach whose job is on the line as is the job of 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, and we expect Kyle Shanahan's pride to keep him from doing anything but trying to win this game.
Josh Rosen has talent but is playing worse than Beathard and the 49ers offense is stronger than the Cardinals, pitting the Niners' 2nd ranked rushing attack against the Cardinals' 32nd ranked rushing defense. Matt Breida has been banged up but San Francisco may have found a suitable replacement in Raheem Mostert.
After firing Mike McCoy, the Cardinals' offense could be boosted by the promotion of Byron Leftwich to offensive coordinator which could lead to more points being scored than anticipated and making the over worth a look.
The 49ers' defense will need to step up to save Saleh's job and Beathard knows he might be a few more turnovers away from being out of the NFL at some point. San Francisco has played better on the road than at home this season with both of their covers coming on the road. We predicted that the 49ers would split the season series with the Cardinals and we are sticking with it. Pick: 49ers +1
Season
2-5 ATS
6-1 SU