Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports

Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports


2018 Free Agency: Is WR Allen Robinson Worth Four-Years and $58 Million?

Sequoia Sims
Jan 18, 2018 at 2:33 PM


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2018 NFL free agency: Is wide receiver Allen Robinson Worth four-years and $58 million? Robinson has had some history with lower leg injuries and has been on injured reserve twice during his four NFL seasons.


Jacksonville Jaguars' Allen Robinson was a Pro Bowl receiver in 2015. He stands at 6-foot-3 and 220 lbs., and is likely looking for something close to a four-year, $58 million deal as a pending free agent (per Rotoworld.com). The salary desired by Robinson might look familiar because it's the same contract that Green Bay Packers' wide receiver Davante Adams recently signed; a four-year contract extension worth $58 million. Robinson (24 years old) and Adams (25 years old) are both very talented four-year veteran receivers.

Yes, the Forty-Niners have a reported $115 million in cap space (per Overthecap.com). But will they pay out an annual salary of $14.5 million to a wide receiver coming off a major knee injury? Hold that thought.

Looking back at Robinson's four-year production

Robinson has appeared in 43 games during his career, starting 41 of those contests while missing 21 games due to injury, which we'll cover shortly. He's totaled 202 catches on 384 targets for 2, 848 yards at 14.1 yards per catch, and 22 touchdowns and nine drop passes (via Foxsports.com). Robinson's lone Pro Bowl invite, as previously mentioned, came in 2015 when he posted 80 catches for 1,400 yards at 17.5 yards per catch and 14 touchdowns. The following season, 2016, he had respectable production with 73 catches for 883 yards at 12.1 yards per catch and six touchdowns.

A snapshot of Robinson's skill set

Robinson displays the ability to catch 50-50 balls, stretch the defense with his speed, and has the athleticism and size any team would covet. He's also a good route runner and can be a red zone target and a No. 1 threat for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.

Robinson's career injuries at a glance:

  • 2017-Knee ACL Tear Grade 3: Robinson underwent surgery on September 11.
  • 2015-Leg Thigh Bruise: Robinson sustained a thigh bruise but was unaffected by his injury.
  • 2014-Pedal Foot Fracture: Robinson fractured his foot in Week 9 and was placed on season-ending injured reserve.
  • Thigh Hamstring Strain Grade 2: Robinson re-aggravated his hamstring injury, sidelining him for the preseason.
  • Thigh Hamstring Sprain/Pull Unspecified Grade 1: Robinson pulled his hamstring in OTA's and missed a few weeks of practice.
  • Thigh Hamstring Strain Grade 2: Robinson pulled his hamstring in OTA's and missed a few weeks of practice.

Is wide receiver Allen Robinson worth four-years and $58 million?

Robinson's most productive years came in 2015 and 2016, respectively, when he was targeted a whopping 302 times in comparison to All-Pro wide receiver Antonio Brown of the Pittsburgh Steelers, who was targeted 347 times during that span.

  • Brown caught an average of 69% of his passes with his quarterback (Ben Roethlisberger missing six games) while Robinson caught 51.3%.
  • His quarterback at that time was Blake Bortles, who had a breakout year in 2015 with 4,428 passing yards and 35 touchdowns. In 2016, Bortles accounted for 3,905 yards and 23 touchdowns.
  • Those numbers, as you can see, are nothing to sneeze at. However, Bortles threw 34 interceptions trying to force the ball more often than not to Robinson.

Jimmy Garoppolo, during his five starts, which were all wins, connected to seven, eight, and nine different receivers on a weekly basis. That's the style of play he learned from the New England Patriots during his three and a half seasons there and, most notably, from quarterback Tom Brady. In fact, the only true No. 1 receiver Brady ever had is future Hall of Fame wide receiver Randy Moss (arguably).

Recent article alerts on Niners Live: Don't Sleep on WR Kendrick Bourne in 2018 and Don't underestimate the impact of Pierre Garcon in 2018.

The Forty-Niners and head coach Kyle Shanahan are well aware of Jimmy G's skill set, abilities, talents, and his leadership style which makes everyone around him better players that deliver up to their own talent level. Yes, Jimmy G is a better quarterback than Bortles, by far, but Robinson's numbers are inflated base on his high volume of targets equaling a low catching efficiency rate (taking nothing away from his talent level), which he won't see with the Forty-Niners.

Also, Robinson's injury history is cause for some concern. Robinson did take to Twitter to showcase that his recovery/workouts are going well, and per reports, he could pass a physical. In the end, the Forty-Niners (in my opinion) should go in a different direction. To be continued.....

Sequoia Sims: Founder of Niners Live, Content Creator and Senior Author. The home of the faithful fan and analyst from an objective/analytical lens, and different perspective, of course.
The opinions within this article are those of the writer and, while just as important, are not necessarily those of the site as a whole.


2 Comments

  • Kareem
    It's not my money so as long as it doesn't affect us cap wise in the future, sure. But if it WAS my money I'd spend it on the defense first.
    Jan 18, 2018 at 9:31 PM
    1
  • NinerGM
    Absolutely not worth any significant guaranteed money. IF, IF we chose to, it's a prove-it deal.
    Jan 18, 2018 at 6:24 PM
    0

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