Lets Take a look towards the future, 2014 to be precise

Sep 4, 2013 at 11:19 PM


I wanted to take a look toward the future, to be more precise, 2014 offseason, and what we have to deal with. I will provide numbers for each player under contract, and what potential cuts could mean cap wise.

For the moment, after the 53 man cuts, and new roster moves, the 49ers have 49 players signed for 2014, at $115,144,923 to be exact, with a dead money hit of just $1,898,431. Now that may seem like not "Only", but compared to some teams, who carry around in the double digit money in dead money, namely $50 million for Oakland in 2013. A little chunk of under $2 million is nothing. What lies in the problem is the current flat cap, and salaries. Which are now below.

CB Carlos Rogers, $8,094,531
RT Anthony Davis , $7,532,266
OLB Ahmad Brooks, $7.5 million
TE Vernon Davis , $7,367,916
ILB NaVorro Bowman, $7.05 million
ILB Patrick Willis, $6,909,875
DE Justin Smith, $6,736,666
RB Frank Gore, $6.45 million
DE Ray McDonald, $5,346,714
WR Michael Crabtree, $4,770,443
OLB Aldon Smith, $4,576,727
NT/DE Glenn Dorsey, $3,792,500
LT Joe Staley, $3.4 million
LG Mike Iupati, $3,255,863
P Andy Lee, $2.4 million
FS Eric Reid, $1,927,444
FS/SS Craig Dahl, $1,883,333
RG Alex Boone, $1.74 million
OLB/ILB Dan Skuta, $1.65 million
QB Colin Kaepernick, $1,630,457
FS/SS C.J. Spillman, $1,558,333
NT Ian Williams, $1,408,333
WR Jon Baldwin, $1,377,765
RG/RT Adam Snyder, $1.3 million
DE Tank Carradine, $1,124,473
RB LaMichael James, $904,968
SS/FS Raymond Ventrone, $855,000
TE Vance McDonald, $817,995
CB Chris Culliver, $794,719
RB Kendall Hunter, $754,805
C Daniel Kilgore, $685,075
LG/C Joe Looney, $676,250
FB Bruce Miller, $660,614
OLB Corey Lemonier, $630,880
WR Quinton Patton, $592,875
TE Garrett Celek, $572,000
RB Marcus Lattimore, $570,146
DE Quinton Dial, $540,413
ILB Darius Fleming, $536,000
ILB Nick Moody, $521,918
QB B.J. Daniels, $506,628
OT Luke Marquardt, $496,666
LS Kevin McDermott, $496,666
DE Tony Jerod-Eddie, $495,000
ILB Nate Stupar, $495,000
TE Chris Harper, $495,000
FB Alex Debniak, $421,666
DE Lawrence Okoye, $421,000
WR Brandon Carswell, $420,000

Now we have roughly around $6.956 million in cap room for 2014 right now, that is with a $124 million cap, which is only $1 million raise. Hopefully it goes higher, maybe another $5 million, which would give us over $10 million to work with.

We still will need to some cap working, just to get rookies signed. We saw the exodus of Brian Jennings, and Parys Haralson, due to salary cap numbers. We are tight right now against the cap, about $2.5 million under, before factoring in Lamar Divens' settlement, which I have no numbers for that yet.

Anyway, back on track. Of the 49 players signed, the following are likely pay cut candidates.

We start with Carlos Rogers, he has a $6.25 million base salary, plus $350,000 in roster and workout bonuses. If we can get Carlos to lower his base down, to say $1.25 million, and eliminate his roster and workout bonuses, with the newly created bonus of, $5 million, prorated over 4 years, at $1.25 million. He would be signed thru 2016, but we treat 2016 as a dummy year, $1 million base, and no other bonuses, basically voids. We save, with his $350,000 workout and roster bonus, plus $3.75 million from his base reduction, we just created $4.1 million in cap room.

Next guy who may be asked for a reduction is Ahmad Brooks. He is due a $5.15 million base salary, but it may reduce on itself, if he doesn't reach 12 sacks or more, and he doesn't get a certain amount of playing time percentage. So we could see a $1 million savings just like that, down to $4.15 million, at that point, I wouldn't ask him to take a pay cut, he is underrated, and has earned the money. Plus he fits our plans perfectly to me.

Next guy is Vernon Davis. This is different. He has a $4.7 million base salary, but I say extend him, lower his base down to what will be the veteran minimum of $855,000. Extend his years thru 2018, which would mean an extra 3 years on top of his 2 remaining years, after 2013. We take the base, and reduce to the mentioned $855,000. And his new signing bonus becomes $3.815 million. We can throw him a future roster bonus guarantee on April of whatever year, or the new league year in March. But the $3.815 million would prorate over 5 years total, at a rate of $763,000. Now I say we actually give him an option bonus in 2015, worth around $4 million, prorated over 4 years, at $1 million. Essentially, he gets a $3.815 million signing bonus right away, and a $4 million option bonus in beginning of the 2015 league year. We would save around $3.082 million.

If those 3 deals are accomplished, we would raise our cap room by about $8.182 million. Now comes the fun part, extending Aldon Smith. Because we are now allowed to extend him, and he has a base salary of $2,336,454, we could extend, and have him lower his base, so it helps in the form of a signing bonus. We could also add in some cap room from the restructures to help with the signing bonus. I image Aldon will be looking for a deal in the Clay Matthews range, which is a apy(Average Per Year) of around $13.2 million. Now I don't see the 49ers paying Smith $13 million a year, if he is willing to take around $10 million a year average, plus a load of incentives, based on sacks, tackles, playing time, etc... I would say it would be a new 6-year deal, going thru the 2019 season, for $60 million, plus say $3 million in available incentives, and base salary escalators.

We basically take his base salary, take it down to around $1 million. Give him a $15 million signing bonus, over 5 years, at $3 million a year. A 2014 cap number of $4 million, and give him a $250,000 roster bonus, and $100,000 workout bonus, each year. His new deal would have a 2014 number of $4.35 million, plus his already prorated bonus from his rookie contract, which is $2,240,273. None of which can be restructured, so it isn't as we are losing cap room.

Lastly, Kaepernick. I see a 5-year deal, worth around $75 million, which is a apy of $15 million, which I feel is fair value, for a guy who would only have 1 and a half years work put in, or about 26 starts. We simply give Kap a new base of $645,000, which is league minimum, plus give him a $15 million signing bonus now, then a $5 million option bonus in 2015, prorated over 4 seasons, at $1.25 million year. The signing bonus would prorate at $3 million a year, and while it looks like he has only a $15 million guarantee, we can also guarantee his 1st 3 seasons base salaries on the new deal. Plus the $5 million option bonus would be guaranteed basically. I would do this, $645,000 in 2014, $1 million in 2015, and $5 million in 2016. Those being base salaries. That gives him an extra $6.645 million in guarantees right there, which is a total of $26.645 million guaranteed.

I don't know how likely we can get a deal done for Michael Crabtree or Mike Iupati. They may be the more difficult ones. If I was a betting man, Iupati would be my guy to sign. Keep the O-line intact. Of course, we have a few Free Agents to worry about.

Tarell Brown is likely gone, as he would bolt for the money elsewhere. But we need to keep Anquan Boldin, Mario Manningham, and Phil Dawson as Unrestricted Free Agents. Plus tender Perrish Cox, Michael Wilhoite as an RFA, and EFA respectively. Those costs should be around $1.5 million for Cox, this is of course if he proves to be valuable as a Punt Returner, and a backup Corner. And for Wilhoite, it would be $570,000.

Deals for Boldin, Manningham, and Dawson would be like this, just for 2014, as I hate going more deeper into the future, and looking more at the cap.

Boldin signs for a 2-year deal, and gets a cap figure of $3.5 million in 2014, Mannigham gets a 3-year deal, and a 2015 cap number of $2.5 million. Dawson another 1 or 2 year deal. Around $3 million a year.

All totaled, we used $9 million on the key 3 UFAs, another $2.070 million on Cox, and Wilhoite. Plus saved some on the previous deals. And we could be set for the 2014 season, and draft day.

I can see Mike Iupati, as he has a $1,600,500 base salary, lowered to $645,000, and we can get an extension. But who is to say wait on the Boldin, and Vernon Davis deals. Get them done now, and then get Iupati locked up long term.

Then in 2015 worry about Crabtree, Culliver, and the other 2011 picks, like, Kilgore, Hunter, and Miller.

The only last player I would want back is Nnamdi Asomougha, and around $2 million for 2014. His play will determine his salary, and years signed, if he says in San Fran.
The views within this article are those of the writer and, while just as important, are not necessarily those of the site as a whole.


5 Comments

  • moose
    Iam sorry Jason that does not make sense.Top 51 includes top 51 contracts,so that includes crabs ,manningham,carridine,dial,lattimore,etc.Also NFI and practice-squad count for so little.Just because a player is not on the 53 man roster(IR,etc)does not mean his salary does not count against the cap.I admit I could be wrong,but your response just doesnt make sense.By the way ,you do a great job! thx
    Sep 5, 2013 at 3:25 PM
    0
    Response: What I mean is all players count against the cap now. The Top 51 rule is for the summer/offseason.
  • moose
    Jason ,Please help me understand.NFLPA shows the niners around 8.3 under the cap.Ive read it from other sources also.Why do you say in your article here and on the ninernation page that the niners are 2.5 under the cap. thank you.
    Sep 5, 2013 at 1:50 PM
    0
    Response: The NFLPA is for the top 51 only, we now have 74 players under contact, between 53 man, IR, PUP, NFI and P-Squad, thats why we have so little.
  • mauidave
    Nice article...looks like there is a good chance we can keep Kap, VD, Aldon & Iupati with a little cap massaging, keeping the core of players in tact. Hopefully Patton will emerge to replace Crabtree, Lattimore for Gore, and eventually Tank for Justin Smith. I have to commend the FO for acquiring so much talent and restocking the shelves through the draft.
    Sep 5, 2013 at 9:43 AM
    0
    Response: Yep, and thanks. I think it definitely possible to keep them all. Might have to let some go. But to keep the core together, may be worth it.
  • moose
    Remember any cap room this year rolls to next year.We have close to 8 million in cap room now,and if you release rodgers and Gore,including dead monies to Rodgers we should be about 20 million under the cap.And if cowboy retires and some other cuts(dahl) thats another 5 million to total about 25 million under the cap.We will need most of those monies.
    Sep 5, 2013 at 6:49 AM
    0
    Response: We will carryover the cap room, which will allow us to keep the guys needed.
  • Mike
    Awesome work, much appreciated!
    Sep 5, 2013 at 12:16 AM
    0
    Response: Thanks mike. Anytime. I post here, NCH and NinersNation. NinerCapHell(NCH) is my website. So visit, and comment on the front page.

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