2012 Post-Draft Assessment: Rounds 1-4

30 Comments

• Kevin Tapp
  I see you saying in the comments that Jenkins was a reach at a non needed position. Obviously some teams didn't feel he was a reach, and some had him as the second best reciever in this draft. Secondly, Wide reciever was just as much of a need position as any on the team other then maybe guard. Randy Moss is 36 years old, Crabtree may show this year or next whether we should give him an extension in coming years, and manningham is a slot reicever on a small deal, so we definitely needed a top rookie to come in, and they obviously felt like he was a better pick then a couple 2nd and 3rd round guards who were over rated by many mock drafts over the off season.
  Jun 12, 2012 at 6:07 PM
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  Response: Obviously, I disagree with you. Though St.Louis had him rated pretty high on their draft list, Mayock himself thought Jenkins was a 2nd-3rd rounder at best. I disagree that WR is a position of need for SF especially with the acquisition of Moss and Manningham. That is of course without ignoring other pass receivers like VD and Delanie. To me, Jenkins doesn't bring in a new dimension to SF's offense. That's not to say that he won't have an impact on our team, but I felt there was better talent on the board. When all is said and done, I hope Jenkins will prove me wrong, but I don't see him as a true #1 WR.
• 9erred
  I think that you need to proof read your own post. You have the BPA at 61 and 92 as Brandon Thompson DT Clemson. You must have him overrated because 32 other teams passed him over past pick 61 to still be on the board at pick 92, then he fell to the 4th round. Konz- I think you need to pick up Bill Walsh book on the Winning Edge. You do not draft OL outside of blind side tackle in round 1. Konz would have compounded how many high draft picks are on this OL. Better qb, rb, WR, TE play make the OL better. The scouts obviously looked at Kelemete and did not feel he warranted the pick. Looney had one of the top interviews per Harbaugh, and obviously they feel he has more upside in their system than Kelemete. This is all master of the obvious stuff, but worth pointing out.
  Jun 6, 2012 at 3:21 PM
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  Response: I think you need to read my previous posts. I don't take into account medical or extracurricular activities, which may or may not have impacted his value. As a pure football player, I do have him rated in the top 60 players of this year's draft. As for Konz, he was the best talent available. I could care less about compounding 1st rounds in a particular position. We could have still drafted AJ Jenkins in the 2nd round if St.Louis wasn't WR hungry. Besides look at the talent we already have at WR. I'm sure Walsh had great ideas for his time, but the game has changed drastically and the ability to block pass rushers is at a premium for NFL teams. As for the Looney discussion, I'm sure the interview has to do with why SF drafted him in the 4th, but to me Looney is 2 yrs from being a starter, Kelemete can start after a year on the bench.
• jstravis49
  Many good points were made in the article and the comments. I do agree with the Konz BPA assessment. He's a perennial Pro Bowler at C. Agree we should have taken Janoris instead of AJ too. I will have to say as many have already that I have faith in BalkaBough combo. In the past we've missed on so many talents that sitting on my couch I knew/felt were better picks such as Carl Nicks, Desean Jackson & Calais Cambell just to name few. Forty Niner Faithful.....RRRRRrrrrrriiiiiise!
  May 23, 2012 at 4:04 PM
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  Response: Yeah, I'm not sure why people are negatively judging Konz just because SF did not select him.
• AZ 9er
  I think you did a great job. Honest analysis. You can't be blinded. The team can do no wrong. Everyone make mistakes. Some picks won't pan out. 5-6 rounder might not make the team. We were lucky last year. A lot of picks were keepers. Is it because we didn't have a lot backup of talent. Its going to be harder to find keepers. Too similar in talent level. You win with a few great players and a lot of good players. Jenkins was a surprise pick since we already sign Moss and Manningham. LaMichael was also a surprise since we have Hunter. Trading our 3rd for more 4th, 5th and 6th was a surprise too. A lot of picks don't help if the talent drops of after the 1st 4 rounds. There aren't that many diamonds in the rough, missed by everyone in the internet age...
  May 22, 2012 at 8:41 PM
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  Response: Thank you.
• ojbubbagray
  1994 #33 pick - LA Rams: Issac Bruce: 6'0" 188 lbs "great route runner, great speed, great hands" Sound familiar?
  May 9, 2012 at 1:51 PM
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  Response: In truth you can say that about anyone. I gave AJ Jenkins his due diligence and was honest about his downside. I hope he proves me wrong.
• Paypa-C
  we now have a deep wr core and we probabaly have the Fastest out of all 32 teams. We probably drafted the smothest route runner besides Blackmon in the draft. 1st rounders do need training and work just like others so he will hit the weight room. SF the only team where all of our picks avrg a number of 32 starts and got 13 picks for next year. AS actually has one of the best deep balls in the league. last year the only reciever that was fast enough to catch them where Davis, Williams, & Ginn (concrete Hands). Now we got recievers that are fast enough to get that deep ball. I beleive we suit up 6 recievers and 2 make the PS. Moss, Crabtree, Maningham, Jenkins, Williams & Ginn. P.S. Owusu and Tymes (6,3 frame runs a 4.4 and 10." vertical Jump). He didnt draft fleener cause he know he's not better than Davis, he cant play H back like Walker. He wants fleener to go to a team where he's #1. He wanted his Boy Luck to have a better chance at success. Dont think he still dont love his ex cardinals like he loves his current niners. If you want to see what I think will be our 53 man roster/ 8 man PS. I'll post it.
  May 6, 2012 at 4:49 PM
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  Response: AS does not have a very good deep ball, which is why he never threw deep balls under the previous NFL coaches. I think it is still too soon to accurately predict the 53-man roster.
• wakingbake
  "I really could care less how much Konz bench presses as long as it is more than 1 digit. " Don't care that u don't care. Obviously, NFL teams cared. Oh, they also cared about his injury prone college career which u failed to mention. I think what u did was look at previous mock drafts by media 'experts' and hopped on the bandwagon without looking at the full due diligence that real NFL GM's do.
  May 3, 2012 at 3:37 PM
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  Response: "Don't care that u don't care." You brought it up, not me. If you read my article or any of my comments, you'll realize that I did not take medical or extracurricular activities into my assessments, because I don't have any interactions with prospects. My ratings are based solely on film and I'm sure his health conditions played into his selection in the 2nd round.
• ricknmarin
  Irrespective of your apparently conscientious analysis, Baalke and Harbaugh's own record of successful draft selections is a proven commodity. As such, it'd be interesting to look over your verifiable commentary on last year's selections.
  May 3, 2012 at 12:52 PM
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  Response: I did not write any articles regarding last year's selection, but I thought Aldon was an excellent pick considering SF could not trade down. I thought trading up to draft Kaepernick was a smart move. Culliver was a reach, but I suspected he was the backup plan if P.Peterson wasn't available at #7. I thought Kendall was right about where we got him. In prior years, I thought A.Davis was not worth the trade up. Taylor Mays was a 6th rounder at best. Bowman was a huge steal in the 3rd round. Dixon was a steal in the 6th round. The point is that I will have verifiable commentary next year.
• Niner Nate
  I appreciate the work and analysis. I believe Harbaugh and Baalke partially drafted based on thier own variables but, also based on an expanded playbook for the 2012 season and forward. You mention "missmatch nightmares", but I think you are wrong. WCO is based on timing routes not missmatches. A WR that runs a precise and quick route will be open not because of the missmatch. I believe the plays will be designed to take advantage of missmatches when available but, to draft for missmatches is insane because there will never be one player that consistently mismatches the rest of the NFL. Niners got the best player for their current and future system. I'd put more analysis into predicting that system and seeing how these players fit rather than a trditional "best player" avail analysis which assumes all teams require a general type of player. Good work.
  May 3, 2012 at 11:22 AM
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  Response: The biggest problem in SF's offense was their inability to score touchdowns in the red zone. You can run timing routes all day, but with an inaccurate QB throwing the ball you'll never get the precision that you want. Besides, how well did that work for us last year. Oh BTW, the WCO is more than timing routes, for it to work properly the receiver must have the ability to break tackles and get yards after contact. Jenkins, on film, doesn't have that ability. Don't tell bill belichick not to draft for mismatches, because the last time he drafted that way the rest of the league couldn't find a way to stop them.
• overthemiddle
  Has Baalke-Harbaugh done anything to make you question these picks? Do you understand the WCO? I really wanted Fleener myself as I thought and still do that he would of helped solved the red zone problems. Jenkins reminds me of the potential of what John Taylor brought to the team. James reminds me of the potential of Wyndel Tyler brought to the team. Trading picks and subplanting next year draft is what good teams do. Looney is an interesting pick. I dont know enough about Looney to debate him however Baalke and Harbaugh so far have been very very good to this point on choosing players to help the team. It is irrelevant what might be a reach or what others consider where a player should be drafted. I could never understand that premise, I dont care if its the 500th rated player if that player selected at number 1 is a player that can help the team then thats all that needs to be said. Till Baalke and Harbaugh start amassing failures then who am I to question.
  May 3, 2012 at 9:32 AM
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  Response: Harbaugh has had 1.5 off-seasons as head coach with the niners, which means that it's hardly enough data point to conclude whether he's done a good or bad job. What about Jenkins reminds you of John Taylor? You can say that about any WR on the open market. I'm not sure you read my article, I was for trading draft picks. As for the "reach" discussion. This franchise can either grow by leaps and bounds or it can grow by the inches. When we reach, especially at a position where there's no need, we are not growing much.
• nibs
  Peter Konz has had two blood clots in his lungs and has missed games because of them. The Niners doctors might not have cleared him. The coaching staff obviously feels that A.J fits extremely well into the teams system. Reuben Randle isn't an explosive player and is more of a possession receiver than Jenkins is. A.J had to deal with some pretty shady quarterback play to. BTW A.J wouldn't have been available in the third or even second as the Rams had targeted him at the beginning of the second round.
  May 3, 2012 at 12:36 AM
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  Response: Even if you don't draft Konz, DeCastro falls far enough that SF had an opportunity to move up and draft him. I disagree with the strategy to draft an individual just because another team is targeting him. That just goes to show that SF was infatuated with this player. I'm not saying that the GM doesn't know what they are doing, but they let their emotions get in the way. I hope that AJ is the player everyone claims him to be.
• Jesse sapolu
  Curious about your bpa assessment. Please name your top 117 players as I would like to see your list that supports your bpa assessment. Aj Jenkins will be our welker/Cruz/Stevie j/Holmes type player. Lmj will be our mccluster/sproles/Dunn type player. Looney hopefully will develop into a serviceable interior linemen but as a 4th round pick, it's okay if he doesn't
  May 2, 2012 at 10:24 PM
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  Response: I can list players all day, but without justification it doesn't mean much. To me, having jenkins doesn't service a need that we can't already fill with the existing roster. I can use your same argument for Crabtree and K.Hunter. A 4th round pick has too much value for me to brush it off so easily. I certainly would not use a 4th round on a player that has a 50/50 chance of developing.
• Tejas
  I certainly understand and appreciate your writing, as for Jenkins I disagree value in leadership does not do enough to show the instrinsic value to performance on field all picks were made with intangibles in mind so I certainly all picks will pan out and pan out well, don't you feel we a need a shutdown corner either at 1 or 2, it kills me that's the giants did just that, exploit us 1 on 1 on the outside, do a corner I felt was a need we didn't address but all in all good job, both by harbaugbaalke and yourself to cover any negatives weve missed.
  May 2, 2012 at 5:51 PM
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  Response: I believe that leadership skills and good character is very important in a football player, but that is secondary to football skills. You can't weigh character so much that you lose sight of an individuals football skills. As for a CB, I would have much preferred a CB than WR Jenkins. I would have taken Janoris Jenkins purely for his football skills. I don't know that we needed a CB with the defensive scheme that we were running, but I would have gladly taken Janoris over AJ.
• Frank
  It's true, Jenkins isn't the biggest or toughest WR, which is why the Niners will make him stronger. However, he's an accomplished route runner, a vital part of any WCO and certainly Harbaugh's. He does have excellent speed, and will stretch defenses. I thought Harbaugh would grab Fleener, but obviously he and Baalke saw too many positives in Jenkins to pass on him. As for James, I can easily understand why Harbaugh wanted him...he couldn't beat him while at Stanford. Like Jenkins, he brings much-needed speed to the offense. Lastly, I think you underrate Looney...oh, I'm sure he needs work, just like about any other OL drafted into the NFL. But, he's a big, nasty OG who had an eye-popping number of knockdown blocks at WF. For sure, that number will drop in the NFL...but, it also shows he's a tough SOB, which is exactly what will jump-start the run game. Walter (of Walter's Football) thinks he's a sleeper pick...that is, he's better now than many think and has the potential to become a beast at OG. I agree. Of course, only time will tell, but I like the pick.
  May 2, 2012 at 4:15 PM
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  Response: I personally don't agree with having to grow 1st round draft picks too much. To me, they should be starter quality with some minor tuning. I agree that he is a good route runner, but he does not break tackles and to me that is more important than speed in a west coast offense. I also disagree in the logic of drafting someone simply because you couldn't beat them. Also, speed at the college level is not as effective at the NFL level, because defenses are much faster. Looney playing against a Clemson defense in 2011 was not very dominant. He got very little push. Unlike Jenkins, I don't think Looney was necessarily a reach, but to me there were better prospects on the board.
• Zach Ameen
  @ longtime49erfan. Well in last many years I made many predictions about draft choices and 90 percent of a time I was correct. I knew from the day one that we made a mistake when we didn't draft Rogers, I knew Alex is a 14 points max per game QB, I knew taylor Mays was a bad pick, we picked overrated Crabtree over Brian orkapo and Mike wallace, I knew chalo rachel will not be a good pick. the only time GM proved me wrong when he picked Aldon Smith; it is still remain to be seen that how would he perform when justin smith is not around. Answer to your Question... Yes I am better then GM when it comes to picking the best players.
  May 2, 2012 at 4:13 PM
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  Response: I'm glad someone agreed that picking Crabtree over Orakpo was silly.
• Spitblood
  AJ Jenkins was drafted for one reason, and one reason only - he had a terrible qb in college and he still produced. Why is that significant? Because Jenkins now has a terrible qb in the pros. He's Charles Barkley "Turrr-ble." Jenkins won't cry like Crabtree.
  May 2, 2012 at 3:07 PM
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• raymond
  I find it funny that so many comments stem from misreading your statements or accusing you of criticizing the Harbaugh regime. I think you've done an excellent job of giving us a baseline to measure against a few years from now. Great article and thanks for the effort!
  May 2, 2012 at 2:22 PM
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  Response: Thank you.
• wakingbake
  Best palyer available was Peter Konz? Lost credibility right there. Konz has been injury prone and could manage only 18 reps on the bench press. What a joke
  May 2, 2012 at 1:14 PM
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  Response: I really could care less how much Konz bench presses as long as it is more than 1 digit. Konz has good functional strength. The fact that he is not a gym rat could be changed with a strong locker room, but field strength can not be measured quantitatively. A good example is Dontari Poe's 40+ bench reps. He has amazing measurables, but his strength is not obvious when watching his film.
• Javi
  I'm just glad that Balke is the GM and that Harbaugh is our coach. The youtube film watching must provide more experience and knowledge than Harbaugh's years of playing and coaching I guess, since he coached and recruited Fleener and still took Jenkins.
  May 2, 2012 at 12:10 PM
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  Response: Harbaugh probably has a good reason for not drafting Fleener. I still think Randle is a better WR than Jenkins.
• Drew
  "BTW, how many explosive WRs do we already have on our squad? Last time I checked Moss is the most likely to be a hall of famer. Ginn is still the faster player on the team. We don't need speed, we need mismatch nightmares. Jenkins at 6'0" is no intimidating figure. I gave him his dues in my article, but he was a reach. " Really?!?! You want Ginn as a dependable receiver? You don't think Victor Cruz was intimidating with his speed this past season? And Moss may be a future hall of famer... but how about we see what he has left in the tank before we make him our savior. deal?
  May 2, 2012 at 12:07 PM
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  Response: I wouldn't want Ginn as a dependable receiver, in fact he proved his point last year that he is not dependable. Also, there aren't very many Victor Cruz in the world and I don't know that Jenkins will become a Victor Cruz. BTW, Cruz with his size was an undrafted Free Agent despite his ball skills. What does that say about Jenkins? As for Moss, he was a risky pickup from day 1, but it's not like SF didn't have an opportunity to bring him in and work him out. Obviously SF feels pretty good about him to sign him.
• Impurvious Short
  Hey Bee, Nice Read. In your evaluation did the Niners do better trading out of the third round or would they have been better off making the pick? I think your take on Jenkins holds him to an unreasonable standard. You say he wears down in games yet he accounts for 40% of the teams offense and more than half of the teams touchdowns I'd be curious to see how Blackmon, or Fleener would hold up under that kind of work load. Also any film study omits a critical component of the draft which is character and work ethic. As a life long underachiever, I can attest that talent is no guarantee of success. Lastly, hats off for a great conversation starter keep up the excellent work.
  May 2, 2012 at 12:05 PM
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  Response: Excellent catch. In fact, I believe his vital role in the Illinois offense was a huge contributor to him wearing down. The 40% means that he was a more valuable member of his team than Blackmon was for Oklahoma State. However, Blackmon was more productive catching 100 more balls than Jenkins over the past 2 years so Blackmon would hold much better than Jenkins. To your 2nd note, I definitely agree, but you can draft leaders with great characters who do not contribute on the football field. At the end of the day it comes down to football and how they can help your team. Using a 1st round pick on a sub-par WR with strong character/leadership abilities is not justifiable in my opinion. Lastly, I would have taken Jenkins in the 3rd round and traded our 1st round for a future pick. Given our draft selections, I'm glad we traded out our 3rd round to accumulate more picks next year.
• Drew
  Seriously? This is the same site that posted the article about having faith in Baalke? Sorry Bee Vue or whoever was responsible for this but I think Harbaugh and Baalke have a better idea than you of who the best players available were. I know everyone had a draft crush on Fleener but come on. We already have two great blocking tight ends, something Coby can't do, and who can also make plays down the field. All I ask is you guys wait til the pads are on to see what these players are really made of in the NFL before saying our GM made bad picks.
  May 2, 2012 at 12:03 PM
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  Response: I never said the GM made the bad picks. I thought we definitely reached. FYI, unlike many other 49er followers, I don't just assume that Baalke is doing the right thing because he's our GM. It's always easy to look back and say he made the wrong pick. It is not that easy to say that the pick was a reach when it happens.
• longtime49erfan
  Well, I guess you would have made a better GM than Trent Baalke. Obviously, you know what is best for the 49ers more than he does. You are gauging "best player available" solely by statistics, and statistics are a very poor gauge for such things. You neglect the key element of coaching, which when added to each pick, makes these picks the best available players for this team.
  May 2, 2012 at 11:41 AM
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  Response: I'm glad Trent Baalke is our GM, and I hope he proves me wrong. I use more than statistics and youtube videos, but I'll let some time pass before I insert how correct I am.
• Zach Ameen
  We made big mistakes by not picking Coby fleener, Stephen Hill or Ruibin Randle. I beleive we have drafted an other Dixter carter who was blazing fast but couldn't break tackles and same thing goes for second rounder. Both of them are small and light.
  May 2, 2012 at 11:20 AM
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  Response: I'm not sure about Hill, but Fleener and Randle for sure.
• Dan
  800 hours of film study? C'mon son. If you had access to 800 hours of coaches' tape that means you either work for an NFL team, a major scouting company, or you're Greg Cosell, in any case you would not be authorized to write for the zone. You're a big college football fan and a master of YouTube, just like the rest of us armchair GM's on a fan site. Keep it real. As far as your assessment, you're discounting Jenkins explosive plays when you say he's a possession receiver. Yes, he was reliable on crossing patterns and 3rd downs, but he had a whole lot of big plays where he blew the top off the defense. And LaMike's size may make him more likely to be injured, but let's not make it a foregone conclusion. Bottom line: The 49ers added explosive players with positional value early, and plugged holes and added depth later. I really like the strategy, but I, too, questioned the players selected. However, unlike a lot of people here I defer to the experts with proven track record.
  May 2, 2012 at 10:59 AM
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  Response: It only takes 10-15 mins to watch a college football game without the breaks and commercials. Youtube is a good resource, but many times only show highlights. As for Jenkins, I'm not the only person who believes that Jenkins was a reach. Mayock said it himself that Jenkins was the 7th ranked WR on his board, which meant that he would have been selected in the 3rd round at best. BTW, how many explosive WRs do we already have on our squad? Last time I checked Moss is the most likely to be a hall of famer. Ginn is still the faster player on the team. We don't need speed, we need mismatch nightmares. Jenkins at 6'0" is no intimidating figure. I gave him his dues in my article, but he was a reach. I like James' explosiveness, but he can't block and we already have a change of pace guy in Kendall Hunter. Why not add value where its needed.
• Joe
  Other receivers similar to AJ: Torry Holt 6'1'' 192 4.44 37'' Reggie Wayne 6'1'' 198 4.45 36'' Steve Smith 5'9'' 184 4.41 38.5'' 4.25 7.44 Steve Breaston 6'1 193 4.46 33'' 4.29 6.9 Greg Jennings 5'11'' 197 4.42 36.5'' 4.18 6.69 Percy Harvin 5'11'' 192 4.39 Nate Burleson 6'1'' 197 4.51 42.5'' 4.16 6.96 Chad Ochocinco 6'1'' 192 4.57 33'' 4.14 7.51
  May 2, 2012 at 10:29 AM
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  Response: The only one on here that is really comparable to Jenkins is Greg Jennings. All the others have a 40 time, shuttle time, or 3 cone that are in excess of 1 tenth of a second.
• FILTHpig
  Okay, I stopped reading after seeing "Best Available Player at pick 30". How can you say who was the best player available at each pick? based on what? That more of an opinion than fact.
  May 2, 2012 at 10:16 AM
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  Response: A lot of writers come back after a year or two and talk about who the best available player would have been. Obviously, "best available" is a statement of opinion by anyone. We'll never know until a couple more years. Also, I watched close to 800 hours of game film and ranked my top 250 players prior to the draft to determine who was the best available. I didn't just pick random names for best available.
• richmondpete
  So you are basically saying that you know how to draft better than the 49ers by saying there were better available players at the same positions at the spots the took them. Kewl.
  May 2, 2012 at 10:15 AM
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  Response: My best value picks were based solely on film. I did not have the privilege of interviewing prospective candidates therefore do not have that insight. Best value also does not take into account "need".
• doug dezzani
  How do you know these are the best available? Define what you mean by "best available." This is your opinion. Obviously our scouts thought differently.
  May 2, 2012 at 9:57 AM
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  Response: Best value according to my film study. Many others would agree and others will disagree. We'll know in a couple years who was more accurate.
• stef
  lamichael had 1500 rush yards every season...dont think his total at oregon was only 1694 yards
  May 2, 2012 at 9:52 AM
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  Response: Read the sentence again, it says he rushed 1694 yards each season for 3 seasons on average.
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