The San Francisco 49ers responded to back-to-back home losses, utilizing a well-designed game plan from Kyle Shanahan which allowed the offensive line and running game to be aggressive and set Jimmy Garoppolo up for user-friendly passes and optimal yards after catch in a 24-16 win as underdogs in Week 6. Now the Niners head back to the East Coast to face a New England Patriots team that is coming off of back-to-back losses. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Sunday October 25th, 2020 at 1:25 pm PST (CBS)
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Line: 49ers +2.5, o/u 44
New England Patriots
Cam Newton was sacked 4 times, threw 2 picks and for 157 yards in his first game back after testing positive for COVID-19. New England lost 12-18 at home to the Denver Broncos in Week 6.
After six weeks, the Patriots are ranked 27th in passing offense defense-adjusted value over replacement (DVOA) at -17.2 percent, 3rd in rushing offense DVOA at 5.1 percent and 25th with 21.8 points per game. New England's defense is 17th in passing defense DVOA at 7.7 percent, 18th in rushing defense DVOA at -9.8 percent and 12th with 22 points allowed per game.
Cam Newton is 26th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at -64, 29th with total quarterback rating (QBR) of 49.2 with 2 touchdowns passing, 4 interceptions, 5 rushing touchdowns and zero fumbles lost, completing 68.1 percent of his passes. New England ranks 12th with an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) score of 1.7 and 18th in Football Outsiders DVOA Adjusted for Volatility Early (DAVE) rating at -2.2 percent, 22nd in offensive DAVE at -1.6 percent, and 21st in defensive DAVE at 2.5 percent. New England's offensive line is ranked 20th in pass protection and 8th in run blocking, while its defensive line is 20th in adjusted sack rate and 20th in adjusted line yards. The Patriots are 2-3 against the spread (ATS) and 2-3 to the over/under.
San Francisco 49ers
After six weeks, the Niners offense is 17th in passing offense DVOA at 13.8 percent, 9th in rushing offense DVOA at -2.2 percent and 20th with 24.7 points per game. San Francisco's defense is 22nd in passing defense DVOA at 13.3 percent, 7th in rushing defense DVOA at -22.5 percent and 10th with 21.7 points allowed per game.
Jimmy Garoppolo is 18th in DYAR at 172, 17th with QBR of 68.9 with 7 touchdowns, 2 interceptions and zero fumbles lost, completing 63.6 percent of his passes. San Francisco ranks 6th with an ESPN FPI score of 4.2 and 11th in DAVE rating at 5.4 percent, 15th in offensive DAVE at 2.4 percent, and 10th in defensive DAVE at -2.5 percent. San Francisco's offensive line is ranked 22nd in pass protection and 25th in run blocking, while its defensive line is 23rd in adjusted sack rate and 8th in adjusted line yards. The Niners are 3-3 ATS and 3-3 to the over/under.
Prediction
The Niners cannot seem to catch breaks when it comes to injury, as offensive lineman Ben Garland has gone on IR while Raheem Mostert is out with a high ankle sprain and Trent Williams is questionable for Week 7 after leaving Week 6 with an ankle injury.
The Niners defense is known to have a weakness against mobile quarterbacks and Cam Newton is certainly one of the best mobile quarterbacks to play the game but has wear and tear from his years of rushing and his recent COVID infection slowed him down? Vic Fangio is a great defensive coach and Denver's passing defense is ranked 9th but it completely shut down Cam and the Patriots offense.
Conventional wisdom says to never bet against Bill Belichick after a loss, so that would make it even more ill-advised to bet against Bill Belichick after back-to-back losses. But these are not the Patriots of old with Tom Brady under center and Cam Newton does not appear to be the runner and passer he used to be.
Having Emmanuel Moseley and Dre Greenlaw back from injury really helped San Francisco's defense stiffen up and as Jason Verrett continues with his steady play, we see San Francisco's defense being able to limit Cam Newton and the Patriots passing game, which could play into the strength of the 49ers rushing defense.
Even with Mostert out, JaMycal Hasty appears to be ready to step in for San Francisco and we expect both teams to feature the running game in a lower scoring contest. But with more offensive playmakers and versatility on the 49ers than the Patriots, and Kyle Shanahan finding his groove with play-calling that helps optimize Jimmy's skill set and minimize weaknesses, we are going to ride with the underdog for the second straight week. Pick: 49ers +2.5
2020 Season ATS
3-3
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