The San Francisco 49ers were exposed and embarrassed on both sides of the ball in a 17-43 humiliation by the Miami Dolphins in Week 5. The Niners will be seeking their first home win of 2020 as they host division rival Los Angeles Rams on Sunday night football in Week 6. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Sunday October 18th, 2020 at 5:20 pm PST (NBC)
Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Line: 49ers +3.5, o/u 51.5
Los Angeles Rams
LA moved to 4-1 on the season in a routine, 30-10 win over the Washington Football Team in Week 5.
After five weeks, the Rams offense is 4th in yards per game, 13th in passing yards per game, 7th in rushing yards per game and 13th in points per game. Los Angeles' defense is 4th in yards conceded per game, 2nd in passing yards given up per game, 9th in rushing yards surrendered per game and 3rd in points allowed per game.
Jared Goff is 8th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR), 13th in total quarterback rating (QBR) with 8 touchdowns, 3 interceptions and zero fumbles lost, completing 72.2 percent of his passes. LA ranks 4th with an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) score of 5.2 and 7th in Football Outsiders DVOA Adjusted for Volatility Early (DAVE) rating at 12.4 percent, 4th in offensive DAVE at 10.2 percent, and 7th in defensive DAVE at -4.2 percent. LA's offensive line is ranked 7th in pass protection and 7th in run blocking, while its defensive line is 3rd in adjusted sack rate and 28th in adjusted line yards. The Rams are 3-2 against the spread (ATS) and 2-3 to the over/under.
San Francisco 49ers
After five weeks, the Niners offense is 21st in yards per game, 20th in passing yards per game, 10th in rushing yards per game, and 18th in points per game. San Francisco's defense is 5th in yards conceded per game, 3rd in passing yards given up per game, 10th in rushing yards surrendered per game, and 11th in points allowed per game.
Jimmy Garoppolo is 26th in DYAR, 27th in QBR with 4 touchdowns, 2 interceptions and zero fumbles lost, completing 60.6 percent of his passes. San Francisco ranks 8th with an ESPN FPI score of 3.1 and 13th in DAVE rating at 1.3 percent, 22nd in offensive DAVE at -1.3 percent, and 9th in defensive DAVE at -2.7 percent. San Francisco's offensive line is ranked 29th in pass protection and 29th in run blocking, while its defensive line is 18th in adjusted sack rate and 4th in adjusted line yards. The Niners are 2-3 ATS and 3-2 to the over/under.
Prediction
It's not a good sign for San Francisco when C.J. Beathard is inserted into the game for two consecutive weeks. San Francisco's increasingly porous offensive line gave up 5 sacks and Kyle Shanahan was reported to have benched Garoppolo at half time in Week 5 to protect Jimmy. These are professionals who have pride but it's hard to fathom how San Francisco's offensive line's pass protection will fare any better with Aaron Donald and the Rams' 3rd ranked pass rush coming to town.
Emmanuel Moseley and Akhello Witherspoon were back at practice on Wednesday and their presence would be a boost to a defensive unit that is still ravaged with injury. Kwon Alexander might be out with a high ankle sprain in Week 6, though Dre Greenlaw was not on the injury list. The jury is still out on how effective the Niners defense can be given how it has only had success against the absolute worst offenses in the league. The Rams are the 4th ranked offense and four out of the five defenses they have played are in the top sixteen.
San Francisco will be wearing its throwback whites in a divisional game, coming off of two bad home losses. But will that be enough to overcome the terrible pass protection and run-blocking, shaky quarterback play and injury-riddled and out-of-sync defense when it takes on the best team it faces thus far this season?
On paper this would appear to be an obvious Rams win, and the betting public will have fresh in its mind how bad the Niners looked last week and how good the Rams appeared, but Vegas was not built on obvious winners. One week ago San Francisco was favored by 3 points in this game but now with Jimmy Garoppolo a full participant in practice, Dre Greenlaw and cornerbacks possibly returning, the Niners are getting 3.5 points at home and this line shift may be an overreaction.
While it might be an exaggeration to call this a must-win for San Francisco, the Niners need to win this game to have any chance of salvaging this season with the Patriots, Seahawks, Packers and Saints up next. Despite falling into a 0-14 hole in Week 5, the Niners still rushed for 131 yards on 15 carries and we have little doubt that Kyle Shanahan will be focusing on running the ball as much as possible to protect Jimmy, keep the Rams off the field in what could be a lower scoring game if the Niners get back their corners.
The Rams have been flying back and forth from the East to West coast over the past four weeks and this could possibly have a negative effect in this divisional rivalry that is likely going to be a dogfight. While we still have some questions about whether San Francisco's offensive line will step up, if Jimmy can bounce back and how healthy the Niners secondary will be, we are going to make the contrarian play and take the best value in the match up. Pick: 49ers +3.5
2020 Season ATS
2-3
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