placeholder image

Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports


Comparing Javon Kinlaw’s College Production to DeForest Buckner’s

May 15, 2020 at 8:00 AM

Videos are auto-populated by an affiliate. This site has no control over the videos that appear above.

When the San Francisco 49ers traded DeForest Buckner to the Indianapolis Colts, finding his replacement became an immediate priority. The organization addressed this need by spending the 14th overall selection in the draft on Javon Kinlaw. Fair or not, the Unversity of South Carolina product will constantly be compared to his predecessor.

While comparing production at the professional level won't be possible until the NFL season starts, we can still take a look at what Kinlaw and Buckner were able to accomplish in college. Of course, there is no scientific equation that states X amount of sacks as an amateur translates to X amount as a pro, but this exercise will at least provide some insight into how these two compare to each other heading into the league.

To get a more accurate juxtaposition of the current and ex-49er, I used data from their last two seasons in college. That is when both players received a significant amount of playing time and typically when draft prospects start to make a name for themselves.

Pass Rush

At first glance, it appears as if Buckner was a much more productive pass rusher. He recorded 111 pressures in his final years at the University of Oregon, while Kinlaw only registered 66, per Pro Football Focus. However, the difference can be accounted for by the number of opportunities each player had.

In 2014, the Ducks made it to the National Championship in the inaugural season of the College Football Playoff system and managed to make a bowl game the following year. Whereas the former Gamecock never participated in the postseason as he was sidelined by a hip injury in 2018 and South Carolina failed to qualify in 2019. Thus, Buckner had 1,111 opportunities to rush the passer, and Kinlaw had 648.

With such a large discrepancy in the sample sizes, it's more effective to compare these two by the rate at which they were able to affect the quarterback. Buckner registered a pressure on about 9.9 percent of his pass-rush snaps, while Kinlaw was successful about 10.2 percent of the time. A 0.3 percent difference is very insignificant and shows that the defensive linemen's production was fairly similar to one another.

Something else to consider here is the defensive scheme. Oregon primarily used a 3/4 defense (three defensive linemen and four linebackers) back then, and South Carolina used what's called a "multiple" defense, meaning they used a mixture of 3/4 and 4/3 alignments. As a result, the former Duck played on the edge about 82 percent of the time, while the former Gamecock only got to play on the outside about 3 percent of the time. Given this, one could argue that Kinlaw's production is more impressive than Buckner's because it's easier to rush the quarterback from a wider alignment.

Run Defense

Pro Football Focus defines a "run-stop" as any play that results in a "loss" for the offense. This is different than a simple tackle behind the line of scrimmage because a "loss" for the offense - or "win" for the defense - is when the offense fails to gain 40 percent of the line to gain on first-down, 50 percent on second-down, or the prevention of a first-down/touchdown on third- or fourth-down.

Against the run is where the former 49er has the edge over his predecessor. In 2014 and 2015, Buckner accumulated 75 total run stops, while Kinlaw managed to rack up 28 the last couple of years. Of course, snap counts are still important to consider, but even the rate favors the former as his run-stop percentage was about 9.9 percent and the latter's was about 5.2 percent.

Does the defensive scheme still play a factor here? To an extent as Kinlaw likely faced more double teams playing on the inside, making it more difficult for him to make impact plays as a run defender. However, it's hard to justify a 4.7 percent difference solely based on alignment. For example, Derrick Brown - who primarily played as a defensive tackle in a four-man front - recorded a rate of about 10.2 percent in 2018 and 2019.

Final Thoughts

While college production isn't the only factor when it comes to success at the next level, there is a correlation between the two. Kinlaw's pressure rate resembling Buckner's should be an encouraging sign for the 49ers, as the team's pass rush certainly took a hit with the latter's departure. Of course, the rookie has some work to do against then run but the NFL has become a passing league, meaning getting after the quarterback is more important than stuffing a running back at the line of scrimmage. While the South Carolina product has some big shoes to fill and it's unlikely that he'll be able to fit into them right away, I think he'll be able to minimize some of San Francisco's loss.

The opinions within this article are those of the writer and, while just as important, are not necessarily those of the site as a whole.
Enjoy this article? Follow us to never miss more!

Powered by Follow.it


Comments

More San Francisco 49ers News

placeholder image

49ers' Kyle Shanahan on blocking out online noise: 'Don't make someone else's reality your reality'

By David Bonilla
Nov 29

Kyle Shanahan takes a pragmatic approach to handling online criticism—he ignores it. The San Francisco 49ers head coach recently opened up about his mindset during a challenging season for his squad, which was once considered a Super Bowl favorite but is now 5-6 and...


placeholder image

49ers announce roster moves ahead of Week 13 Friday practice

By Site Staff
Nov 29

The San Francisco 49ers announced the signing of offensive lineman Sebastian Gutierrez to the practice squad. To make room on the practice squad, the team released offensive lineman Cameron Erving. The 49ers Communications staff provided the following rundown. Gutierrez...


placeholder image

49ers rookie Isaac Guerendo optimistic about foot injury

By David Bonilla
4 hrs

San Francisco 49ers rookie running back Isaac Guerendo remains optimistic about his injury status after exiting Sunday's game against the Chicago Bears with a potential foot sprain. Head coach Kyle Shanahan addressed the injury during his postgame press conference but didn't...


placeholder image

49ers vs. Bears final injury report: Williams won't play, Bosa doubtful

By David Bonilla
Dec 6

The San Francisco 49ers are preparing for their Week 14 contest against the Chicago Bears on Sunday at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California. Both teams have released their official injury reports, which are provided below. San Francisco 49ers Out LB Dre Greenlaw...


Latest

Trending News

Share 49ersWebzone