The San Francisco 49ers returned to their soul-crushing and doubt-removing ways in their 37-8 demolition of the Green Bay Packers in prime time in Week 12, but now face a team that some are calling the best in the NFL in the Baltimore Ravens on the East Coast this Sunday. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Sunday December 1st, 2019 at 10:00am PST (FOX)
Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
Line: 49ers +5.5, o/u 45.5
Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens throttled and embarrassed the Los Angeles Rams in LA to the tune of 45-6 on Monday night.
After twelve weeks, Baltimore ranks 1st in Football Outsiders' weighted total DVOA at 44.0 percent (represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games), 1st in offensive weighted DVOA at 29.8 percent and 4th in weighted defensive DVOA at -11.7 percent.
The Ravens' offense ranks 1st with 433.3 yards per game, 1st with 35.1 points per game, 19th with 222.7 passing yards per game and 1st with 210.5 rushing yards per game. Baltimore's defense is 10th in giving up 322.7 yards per game, 5th in yielding 18.4 points per game, 17th with 235.0 passing yards conceded per game and 3rd in allowing 87.7 rushing yards per game.
The Ravens' offensive line is ranked 4th in run blocking and 17th in pass protection. Baltimore's defensive line ranks 5th in adjusted line yards and 24th in adjusted sack rate. Lamar Jackson ranks 4th with a DYAR of 875 and 1st with a total QBR of 81.9. The Ravens have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) score of 10.5 and are 6-5 ATS, including covering five straight, and 7-4 to the over/under so far this season.
San Francisco 49ers
Through twelve weeks, San Francisco is ranked 3rd in weighted DVOA at 33.8 percent, 12th in weighted offensive DVOA at 3.2 percent and 2nd in weighted defensive DVOA at -29.2 percent.
The 49ers' offense is 6th with 382.3 yards per game, 2nd with 30.2 points per game, 14th with 236.6 passing yards per game and 2nd with 145.6 rushing yards per game. San Francisco's defense is 1st in allowing 248.0 yards per game, 2nd by conceding 14.8 points per game, 1st in giving up 136.9 passing yards per game and 19th in yielding 111.1 rushing yards per game.
The Niners' offensive line is ranked 10th in run blocking and 8th in pass protection. San Francisco's defensive line is 13th in adjusted line yards and 1st in adjusted sack rate. Jimmy Garoppolo ranks 11th with a DYAR of 460 and 14th with a total QBR of 56.2. The Niners have an ESPN FPI score of 7.9 and are 6-4-1 ATS and 5-6 to the over/under this season.
Prediction
NFL fans are going to be treated to an early holiday present in a match up of arguably the two best teams in the league.
We predicted that Greg Roman might help set the stage for a break out year for Lamar Jackson and for the Ravens to win this game in our preseason analysis, and are sticking to that prediction, but feel this game could be closer than expected.
The Niners' defense had problems with mobile quarterbacks in Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson but seemed to have figured things out by the second half of its last game against Arizona and it will be on its best to limit Jackson's rushing and trying to force him to beat it with his arm.
On paper, all signs points to the Ravens having the advantage: Baltimore is rated higher in team efficiency, offense, quarterback and averages more rushing yards per game and this game will be on the East Coast at the early start time. And while San Francisco boasts the higher rated defense, Baltimore's defense is not far behind at 4th in weighted DVOA and has, in fact, played much better since making the trade for Marcus Peters.
But with the Ravens' stock being at its highest all season, especially after laying waste to the Super Bowl runner-up on Monday, we feel that they could be a bit overvalued and that the 49ers might be one of the most disrespected 10-1 teams in NFL history.
Indeed, the Niners are the first 10-1 team to enter Week 13 as an underdog in twelve years and based on this disrespect and everyone already anointing Jackson the MVP and the Ravens as world beaters, we expect San Francisco to bring ferocious intensity and to go down swinging. We see the value in taking the points with the Niners in a lower scoring game. Pick: 49ers +5.5
Season
SU: 5-6
ATS: 3-8