The San Francisco 49ers showed their grit in overcoming a sixteen point deficit and the elusive play of Kyler Murray to secure a ten point victory over the Arizona Cardinals in a game where the final score belied how tightly contested it was. Now the Niners will have to conjure up even more resiliency with the possible loss of Dee Ford in anticipation of facing a well rested Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers in another prime time match up on Sunday night. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Sunday November 24th, 2019 at 5:20pm PST (NBC)
Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Line: 49ers -3, o/u 46
Green Bay Packers
Prior to their Week 11 bye, the Packers defeated the Carolina Panthers 24-16 at Lambeau Field.
After eleven weeks, Green Bay ranks 10th in Football Outsiders' weighted total DVOA at 13.4 percent (represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games), 5th in offensive weighted DVOA at 17.5 percent and 22nd in weighted defensive DVOA at 4.5 percent.
The Packers' offense ranks 17th with 356.0 yards per game, 9th with 25.0 points per game, 11th with 253.9 passing yards per game and 18th with 102.1 rushing yards per game. Green Bay's defense is 28th in giving up 384.7 yards per game, 14th in yielding 20.5 points per game, 23rd with 257.8 passing yards conceded per game and 25th in allowing 126.9 rushing yards per game.
The Packers' offensive line is ranked 8th in run blocking and 10th in pass protection. Green Bay's defensive line ranks 32nd in adjusted line yards and 10th in adjusted sack rate. Aaron Rodgers ranks 6th with a DYAR of 808 and 15th with a total QBR of 56.5. The Packers have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) score of 4.6 and are 7-3 ATS and 5-5 to the over/under so far this season.
San Francisco 49ers
Despite two more red-zone interceptions, Jimmy Garoppolo stepped up when it mattered most, aided by big performances from Ross Dwelley, Deebo Samuel and Kyle Juszczyk, to secure the 36-26 win in Week 11, though the game was neck-and-neck until the final few minutes.
Through eleven weeks, San Francisco is ranked 5th in weighted DVOA at 24.7 percent, 16th in weighted offensive DVOA at -0.8 percent and 2nd in weighted defensive DVOA at -25.0 percent.
The 49ers' offense is 5th with 386.6 yards per game, 2nd with 29.5 points per game, 15th with 237.6 passing yards per game and 2nd with 149.0 rushing yards per game. San Francisco's defense is 2nd in allowing 253.0 yards per game, 2nd by conceding 15.5 points per game, 1st in giving up 142.5 passing yards per game and 20th in yielding 110.5 rushing yards per game.
The Niners' offensive line is ranked 10th in run blocking and 7th in pass protection. San Francisco's defensive line is 18th in adjusted line yards and 1st in adjusted sack rate. Jimmy Garoppolo ranks 15th with a DYAR of 308 and 13th with a total QBR of 57.7. The Niners have an ESPN FPI score of 6.4 and are 5-4-1 ATS and 5-5 to the over/under this season.
Prediction
After their last trip to California that started with the Green Bay Packers arriving to LA two days early and ended in a 11-26 loss to Philip Rivers and the Los Angeles Chargers, Aaron Rodgers proclaimed that loss to be a wake up call, a slice of humble pie and called out teammates for how they spent their 48 hours in LA prior to that Week 9 loss. Based on that experience, we are anticipating that the Packers will have a different attitude for this California road trip against one of the top teams in the NFC.
Having already lost Ronald Blair III for the season, the Niners may be without edge rusher Dee Ford for a couple of weeks, creating another challenge for a unit that has now conceded 24 or more points in three straight games to mobile quarterbacks, now preparing to take on one of the best in the game.
The #49ers are concerned DE Dee Ford could be out a couple of weeks with a hamstring injury, Kyle Shanahan said.
— Matt Maiocco (@MaioccoNBCS) November 19, 2019
Jimmy Garoppolo's red-zone interceptions are unnerving and have created more work for the team, but he has shown the ability to move past the turnovers to win games. Moving forward, however, Garoppolo will not be able to get away with multiple turnovers against top competition and the rest of the Niners' schedule includes some of the best teams in the NFL.
While Emmanuel Sanders continues to deal with a rib injury and George Kittle's status for Sunday is still up in the air, San Francisco should find ways to score against Green Bay's 22nd ranked (in weighted DVOA) defense.
The key to predicting this game depends on whether one thinks Aaron Rodgers will be able to score against the Niners' defense. Rodgers was born and raised in Northern California, attended Cal and will always remember San Francisco passing on him to take Alex Smith with the number one pick in the 2005 NFL Draft. He will be coming off of a bye, will do everything in his power to make sure his team doesn't make the same mistakes it made on its last trip to California and will have a healthy Davante Adams, who was born and raised in Palo Alto and attended Palo Alto High School and Fresno State University.
The Green Bay Packers have won six of the previous eight matchups against NFC teams in the week after the bye, 16 of their last 23 (.696), including wins in seven of the last ten in games immediately following their bye week. We predicted Green Bay to win this game in our preseason analysis and are sticking with it but don't feel super confident in this pick because Green Bay will be an underdog that attracts a lot of public interest this week, which usually does not bode well for a cover. We do, however, expect Aaron Rodgers to step up in prime time as he usually does and get his points.
San Francisco's games have gone over the total in four straight, and anticipating Kyle Shanahan and Jimmy Garoppolo to find ways to score against the Packers, we see this trend continuing. Pick: Over 46
Season
SU: 5-5
ATS: 3-7