The San Francisco 49ers made a statement in prime time by rendering Baker Mayfield and the Browns completely impotent on a national stage with a 31-3 annihilation of Cleveland on Monday night. Undefeated and atop the NFC West standings, the Niners can take a step toward dethroning the reigning NFC champions when they take on the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Sunday October 13th at 1:05 pm PT (FOX)
Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, California
Line: 49ers +3.5, o/u 50.5
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams will be returning home after consecutive losses and now face their biggest game of the season as they hope to avoid a classic Super Bowl-runner-up hangover season and remain in contention in the extremely competitive NFC West.
After five weeks, Los Angeles ranks 12th in Football Outsiders' total DAVE rating at 7.9 percent (represents a combination of preseason projection and performance so far), 17th with a total DVOA of 1.3 percent, 9th in offensive DAVE at 7.6 percent, 11th in offensive DVOA at 4.3 percent, 15th in defensive DAVE at -0.1 percent and 17th in defensive DVOA with 1.9 percent. The Rams' offense ranks 5th with 413.6 yards per game, 6th with 29.2 points per game, 2nd with 317.4 passing yards per game and 22nd with 96.2 rushing yards per game. Los Angeles' defense is 13th in giving up 350.0 yards per game, 26th in yielding 26.8 points per game, 16th with 243.2 passing yards conceded per game and 15th in allowing 106.8 rushing yards per game.
The Rams' offensive line is ranked 8th in run blocking and 3rd in pass protection. Los Angeles' defensive line ranks 18th in adjusted line yards and 22nd in adjusted sack rate. Jared Goff ranks 19th with a DYAR of 106 and 23rd with a total QBR of 44.3. The Rams have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) score of 4.2 and are 4-1 ATS and 3-2 to the over/under so far this season.
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco put together its most complete and error-free game of the season on Monday night and showed how dominant it can be on both sides of the ball when it does so, though Kyle Jusczcyk sustained a knee injury which has created some anxiety about how it might affect the Niners' dominant run game moving forward.
Through five weeks, San Francisco is ranked 2nd in total DAVE at 25.8 percent, 1st with a total DVOA of 58.1 percent, 11th in offensive DAVE at 5.1 percent, 4th with an offensive DVOA of 15.0 percent, 2nd in defensive DAVE at -21.9 percent and 2nd in defensive DVOA with -43.5 percent. The 49ers' offense is 4th with 427.3 yards per game, 2nd with 31.8 points per game, 22nd with 227.3 passing yards per game and 1st with 200.0 rushing yards per game. San Francisco's defense is 2nd in allowing 257.5 yards per game, 4th by conceding 14.3 points per game, 2nd in giving up 175.8 passing yards per game and 5th in yielding 81.8 rushing yards per game.
The Niners' offensive line is ranked 1st in run blocking and 2nd in pass protection. San Francisco's defensive line is 7th in adjusted line yards and 3rd in adjusted sack rate. Jimmy Garoppolo ranks 12th with a DYAR of 195 and 14th with a total QBR of 51.6. The Niners have an ESPN FPI score of 5.3 and are 3-1 ATS and 1-3 to the over/under this season.
Prediction
We are not too proud to admit that we, like many, underestimated the San Francisco 49ers' potential for this first quarter of this season and our record picking against the spread straight up reflects it. In our preseason analysis, we opined that the Los Angeles Rams would take a step back this season after losing the Super Bowl, that Jared Goff might be overrated and that Todd Gurley's knees might not be right, and predicted that San Francisco would break through for a win against the Rams in 2019 but maybe not in Los Angeles, and we are going to stubbornly stick by this formulation.
While San Francisco has the higher power rating and statistically better offense, defense and quarterback, this game has evolved in to the biggest game of the season for Los Angeles and the Rams are coming off of back-to-back losses with longer time to prepare after a Thursday night game in Week 5. In contrast, the Niners have a short week after a statement win in prime time.
San Francisco has been road warriors this season but injuries have mounted for the team and this is a potential let-down spot for the Niners and a get-right spot for the Rams, making it difficult to confidently pick San Francisco to win in Los Angeles without Kyle Juszczyk available to gouge giant running lanes and catch passes out of the backfield as he has done so well. We do, however, know that four of the last five games these teams have played each other have finished over the posted total and feel most confident that the Rams' defense will not be able to stop the Niners' offense even without Juszczyk. And given that the Rams are still top six in yards and points per game and that Jared Goff plays much better at home, we anticipate a lot of points being scored in this contest. This total opened at 49 but is already at 50.5, so if you are planning on taking the over, it might be better to do so sooner rather than later: Pick: Over 50.5
Season:
SU: 1-3
ATS:1-3