The San Francisco 49ers are coming off their most dominating win this season over a completely dismantled and broken Raiders squad, led by an inspiring performance from Nick "BDN" Mullens and a successfully aggressive pass rush. The Niners will look to keep the momentum going against another bottom dwelling team in the New York Giants under the bright lights of Monday Night Football. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Monday November 12, 2018 at 5:15 PM PST (ESPN)
Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Line: 49ers -3, total at 43.5
New York Giants
The Giants are coming off a bye week in the midst of another under-achieving, dismal performing season. Prior to the start of the season, the Giants were actually a team that received some attention as a possible contender given the talent on the roster, but the season so far has confirmed that Eli Manning is no longer a viable NFL quarterback and left them with nothing much more to play for besides draft position.
New York's offense is 20th with 353.3 yards per game and 27th with 18.8 points per game, earning a 23rd ranked offensive DAVE rating of -4.3 percent. The Giants' run and pass offenses are ranked 31st and 9th, respectively.
The Giants' defense is 21st in allowing 366.4 yards per game and 22nd in giving up 25.6 points per game, leading to a 28th ranked defensive DAVE rating of 8.2 percent. New York's run and pass defenses are ranked 23rd and 16th respectively.
Eli Manning is ranked 25th with a DYAR of -43 and 30th with a QBR of 39.9. The Giants are 24th with a weighted DVOA of -13.3 percent, 3-5 ATS, 3-5 to the over/under with their last 2 games going under the total.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers gave their best performances of the season on both sides of the ball last Thursday and Nick Mullens may have stirred a quarterback controversy with his 262 yard, 3 touchdown and 0 interception display in prime time.
The Niners' offense is 18th with 354.6 yards per game and 18th with 23.0 points per game, earning a 28th ranked offensive DAVE rating of -16.0 percent. San Francisco's run and pass offenses are ranked 4th and 25th, respectively.
San Francisco's defense is 14th in allowing 351.7 yards per game and 24th in conceding 26.6 points per game, corresponding with a 24th ranked defensive DAVE rating of 3.7 percent. The Niners' run and pass defenses are ranked 12th and 17th, respectively.
Nick Mullens said Kyle Shanahan told him he is starting.
— Matt Maiocco (@MaioccoNBCS) November 6, 2018
After one start against the Raiders, Nick Mullens has a DYAR of 101 and QBR of 76.6. The 49ers are 26th with a weighted DVOA of -18.0 percent, 3-6 ATS, 5-4 to the over/under with their last 3 games going under the total.
Prediction
The million dollar question upon which this game hinges is whether Nick Mullens and the 49ers defense looked good against the Raiders because of Nick Mullens and the 49ers defense or because the Raiders are the most atrocious and dysfunctional team in football.
We have been terrible picking Niners games ATS this season and this three game stretch between some of the worst teams in the NFL is particularly challenging because it hasn't been obvious which teams have completely given up and which teams are still trying to win.
Hindsight is 20/20 and even though we noted that the Raiders seemed more explicit in tanking and surmised that Shanahan's pride would lead to him wanting to prove himself with winning, we still couldn't put two and two together and anticipate the huge discrepancy in effort that we witnessed last Thursday.
Even though they traded Eli Apple, the Giants do not appear to have given up completely, as exemplified by their being a 63-yard Graham Gano field goal away from beating the Panthers in Carolina, and we anticipate that they may come out of the bye rested and with some residual pride in this prime time match-up.
Based on the hypothesis of the Giants having talent on their roster, being rested with some residual pride left in the tank for a prime time game, taken together with the likelihood of Nick Mullens and the Niners defense coming back down to earth when not facing the most dysfunctional, resigned team in the league in the Raiders, we will take the Giants to win outright. Pick: Giants +3
Season
2-7 ATS
6-3 SU