The San Francisco 49ers played with aggression and toughness on Monday night but could not sustain it long enough to come away with a victory against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers, covering the nine-point spread but losing the game on a last-second field goal in heartbreaking fashion. This week the Niners face the challenge of hosting the odds-on favorite to win the Super Bowl in the Los Angeles Rams. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Sunday October 21st, 2018 at 1:25pm PST (CBS)
Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Line: Rams -9.5, total at 52
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams took care of business in their second straight road win and remain undefeated on the season. The Rams lead the league with 464.3 yards per game, are 3rd with 32.7 points per game and have the top-ranked offensive DVOA-Adjusted for Variation Early (DAVE) rating at 24.4 percent. The Rams' offense has the most rushing yards per game and the 6th most passing yards per game.
The Rams' defense has looked more vulnerable since its game against the Vikings, leading to games being closer than expected in its last two. The Rams' defense is 11th in giving up 344 yards per game and 7th in allowing 19.7 points per game, corresponding with a 11th ranked defensive DAVE rating of -3.3 percent. The Rams' defense is 13th in passing yards given up per game and 14th in rushing yards allowed per game.
Jared Goff is 3rd with a defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) of 647 and 3rd with a total QBR of 78.8. The Rams are at the top of the league with a total DAVE rating of 29.1 percent, are 3-2-1 against the spread (ATS) and 3/3 to the over/under.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers' offense appeared to be much more potent against the Packers but couldn't sustain drives when it mattered most. San Francisco is 13th with 381.8 yards per game and 15th with 24.7 points per game, ranking 28th with an offensive DAVE rating of -13.2 percent. San Francisco's offense is 21st in passing yards per game and 3rd in rushing yards per game.
The Niners' defense did a good job of getting after and limiting Aaron Rodgers on Monday but not when it counted most, and it will need its best effort if it wants any hope of limiting the Rams' vaunted offense. San Francisco's defense is 19th in conceding 377.2 yards per game and 29th in giving up 29.8 yards per game, contributing to a 25th ranked defensive DAVE of 3.3 percent. The Niners' defense is 25th in passing yards allowed per game and 13th in rushing yards given up per game.
C.J. Beathard is 23rd with a DYAR of 21 and 18th with a total QBR of 54.3. The 49ers are 31st with a total DAVE rating of -20.2 percent, are 2-4 ATS and 5/1 to the over/under.
Prediction
On paper, the Rams have the vastly superior offense and quarterback but the Niners have covered each game where they have been nine-or-more-point underdogs with each of those games going over the total. The last time these two teams played in Levi's Stadium, the Rams squeaked out a two-point victory in a 41-39 game, and now Los Angeles will be playing in its third straight road game. Despite the close losses, Shanahan has instilled some fight in this team to go with capable offense that has kept the team in each and every game. We expect the Niners to lose but keep the score within double digits in another high scoring affair that goes over the posted total. Pick: Over 52 points
Season
2-4 (ATS)
5-1 (SU)
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