Draft days are coming up soon. It's therefore good to go into the event with a strategy, and your draft position would determine that. It will also be affected by the number of autodrafters (more on that below).
To get ready, you should first create a document that has all of the players you might seriously consider drafting. You should organize them by position group and rank them if you feel that is necessary. Make sure you put players from the same position and on the same team together to avoid drafting both. I always cross off the players as they get drafted, so I have that in front of me, but the websites remove them from the queue.
All of the strategies below are based on a 10-team league.
Early draft positions.
Picks 1 and 2
While you will be able to get one of the best players in the league with your first pick, 19 picks will be taken before you pick again, then a quick turnaround, and then another long wait, and so on. The key is, therefore, to identify who might be a good selection when you are about five or six picks away from going again after that long haul, and you should start to think about who your next two picks will be. If you go with a top receiver (Ja'Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson) with your initial pick, you will want to make at least one of your next picks a running back. Because it is easier to find good receivers later, it might be good to take two running backs with your next two picks. Then, after the long wait, go wide receiver, and then either quarterback or tight end.
This is where paying attention really matters. For instance, if there has been an early run on quarterbacks, and, for example, Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels are the only two of the big five (Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Burrow, and Daniels) left, you might consider taking one of them with your third pick. The same is somewhat true with the tight ends. Brock Bowers and George Kittle are the two who would be worthy of a 3rd-round pick, but even with those two, I would probably wait until the 4th if I could.
As you go through the draft, try to keep a balance between running backs and wide receivers. In ESPN's format, you will have 15 players, and you are allowed to flex your tight end. In NFL.com's, it is only 14 and with no TE-flex option. That makes a difference. On your final roster, you should have a minimum of four RBs and four WRs and should shoot for five.
With that much space in between some of your picks, you want to get your quarterback in the first seven rounds and your tight end in the first nine (at the latest). You should wait until the last three to four rounds before taking a kicker and defense.
I did not write an article on those two positions, so here it is in a nutshell. With kickers, pay attention to three factors. First, do they play for a good team? Kickers on good teams will likely be in a position to make more attempts than those on bad teams. Second, do they kick in a dome or in bad weather? That can make a difference. Third, what conference do they play in? If much of their schedule is against bad teams, they might score a lot of points.
With the defenses, it is much the same. First, what is their history? The Ravens have a perennially good defense. The Panthers? Not so much. Whom do they play against? If it is a weak division, you might be in better shape.
Picks 7 and 8
These two go together because, like picks 1 and 2, the lag time is long and the turnaround is fast. The main difference, though, is that the premier players won't be options with your first pick. You should, therefore, take a running back and wide receiver with your first two. That will help you stay balanced. How early you take a quarterback is a little different here, too. After your 4th-round pick, you won't be on the clock again until the end of the 5th round. That is the key. After your quick two picks, it will be such a long time until you pick again that you might need to take someone a little earlier than you would like.
One potential strategy for picks 6-8: I have many teams—I'll have 34 this year—so on a few of them, if I am picking in this position, I might take back-to-back tight ends because if the league allows you to flex tight ends, the top ones are as good as a lot of receivers and therefore terrific for flexing. You will also always have a great tight end when one of them is on a bye week.
Picks 3 and 6
These go together because there is the same amount of turnaround between picks. Though the 3rd pick will get a prime early pick, the 6th will still get a good one in the 1st round and then have a quick turnaround for the second pick. That is one reason the 6th is one of my favorites. But the strategy as to which position group to go for is a little different.
With the 3rd pick, I would go best player available, which might still be a wide receiver, but you should definitely get a running back with your second or third pick (whether your first was a running back or not). Then, in rounds 4 and 5, balance your running back and wide receiver numbers and go for a quarterback or tight end. As a general rule, be patient with quarterbacks.
With the 6th pick, you will probably go running back with your first pick and then see who is available with your second. If a lot of the good backs are gone, you have to gauge how much better the top wide receiver is as opposed to the top running back with your second pick. It might be prudent to go running back, also, and then receiver and receiver with your next two. The one caveat is the same as the one for the early picks when it comes to quarterbacks. If only one or two of the big five are left, you might go quarterback with your third or fourth pick. If you have pick number 3 to start, you should balance receivers and backs.
Picks 4 and 5
In these mid-round picks, the turnaround is basically the same. Use that to your advantage. It might be easier to balance your backs and receivers as you go along. Pay attention to the draft board and try to judge who is likely to be available.
Easy research
One feature of many of these sites is that you can check other teams' selections, which can be helpful when deciding what risks to take. Suppose it is the 3rd round, you have the 6th pick, and are interested in a quarterback. You can check those who pick in the 7 and 8 spots. If they both have quarterbacks, you can be pretty sure one will be there after the turnaround and should go with a different position. If, however, only one of the big five is left and neither of the following two teams has a quarterback, you should seriously consider a signal caller.
The site's rankings
There is rarely a consensus on who is ahead of whom when you get outside the top 5. What that means is players further down may well be available a round later than you might think. For instance, James Conner is a solid back but was ranked in the 40s last year. What that meant is that he would, A, be out of range of autodrafters and, B, probably not on the minds of many team owners. It was possible to wait on him.
Autodrafters
If you aren't familiar with the term, autodrafters are people who signed up for the draft but do not take part. They let the website choose for them. They therefore have to take the highest-ranked player. For the first 4-5 rounds, that will be either a receiver or running back.
Serious fantasy players are not crazy about autodrafters, who often get premier players even though they aren't in the draft room. However, that does not mean you can't use that to your advantage. For instance, suppose you have the 5th pick and are interested in a player. There are two autodrafters in spots 6 and 8. You can then count the picks between your slot and the player you want. If he is only three spots away, he'll be gone by the time you pick again, so you should take him. However, if he is 12 spots away, you only need to worry about the person with the 7th pick. You might wait.
Exceptions to these strategies
Sometimes people like to draft for more personal reasons. For instance, an Eagles fan might want to get as many Eagles as possible. It will be easy to spot those after three rounds. That might mean, though, that they reach for a particular player (e.g., a tight end from that team several rounds too early). If a 49ers fan had that strategy, for example, he might take Kittle with his second pick and Ricky Pearsall with his third. The latter will probably be available in the 5th round or later. And he might take Brandon Aiyuk in the first four rounds, even though B.A. likely won't play the first six to eight weeks.
There are all sorts of ways to put together fun teams. For instance, as an Alabama grad, I have one team where I get as many Alabama players as I can, so my first picks always include Jahmyr Gibbs, Jalen Hurts, Derrick Henry, and Devonta Smith. I normally would not take Hurts with my second pick, but because there are only a few Alabama QBs, and he is by far and away the best of them, I ignore my general strategy.
Here are some of my rankings:
My top 5:- Ja'Marr Chase
- Saquon Barkley
- Bijan Robinson
- Justin Jefferson
- Christian McCaffrey
Worthy of a 5-15 pick (in no particular order):
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- CeeDee Lamb
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Ashton Jeanty (rookie)
- Puka Nakua
- Malik Nabers
- De'Von Achane
- AJ Brown
- Derrick Henry
- Brian Thomas
2nd and 3rd round picks (in no particular order):
- Bucky Irving
- Josh Jacobs
- Brock Bowers (the one tight end worthy of a 2nd-round pick)
- Jonathan Taylor
- Tee Higgins
- Ladd McConkey
- Davante Adams
- Kyren Williams
- James Cook
- Drake London
- Breece Hall
- Kaleb Johnson
Good mid-round picks:
- The mid-tier QBs: Baker Mayfield, Bo Nix, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert
- Trey McBride
- Sam LaPorta
- Nico Collins
- Tyreek Hill
- Terry McLaurin
- Garret Wilson
- RJ Harvey (rookie)
- Tetairoa McMillan (rookie)
- Travis Hunter (rookie)
- Tyler Warren (rookie)
- Colston Loveland (rookie)
- Omarion Hampton (rookie)
- Christian McCaffrey: 1st round
- George Kittle: 3rd round
- Brock Purdy: 7th round
- Ricky Pearsall: 6th round
- Brandon Aiyuk: if healthy, 3rd round; if you can wait, take him in the 7th or later
- Jauan Jennings: 4th round
- Jordan Watkins: late-round flyer
- Issac Guerrendo (or whoever is our primary backup): late round (if Christian gets hurt—please NO!—you should pick him up off waivers if he is available)
- Jake Moody: 😆😆😆😆😆
Soon, you will be on the clock. May the football gods be with you. May those in front of you make dumb picks so the player you want slides to you. May all of the gladiators remain healthy and avoid suspension. Good luck!
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