This is the third installment on fantasy drafting. Today, it's running backs. Find my article on wide receivers here and running backs here. This week, I'm focusing on the quarterbacks.
Ten to fifteen years ago, it was foolish to take a quarterback before the 5th or 6th round. The difference between Peyton Manning's per-game average and Tony Romo's might have been only a few points, and Matt Ryan could be had in Round 9 or 10. But with the advent of the dynamic rushing quarterback, that has changed. Gone are the days when the top QB any given week scored 21 points and the seventh-best scored 18.6.
Last year, the top quarterback, Lamar Jackson, averaged 25.3 points per game, while the seventh, Jared Goff, produced 19.1. That's a touchdown's difference. And it's essential to remember that a rushing touchdown is worth more points (6) than a passing touchdown (4). That makes those rushing quarterbacks extremely valuable. And when you consider that Josh Allen scored only one fewer rushing touchdown than Saquon Barkley, you can see the sea change that has taken place.
There are four dynamic rushing quarterbacks it is worth taking early: Jackson, Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Jayden Daniels. The first three have been consistent producers for years, and Daniels had one of the better rookie seasons we have seen (either for fantasy or for the actual games) in some time. There is one non-rushing quarterback who is worth taking early, and that is Joe Burrow. Burrow is one of the best passers in the league, and he has tremendous weapons in Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
Still, I would not take a quarterback before the 3rd round since getting a good receiver and a good running back early is important not only to have as starters but also because you will need at least four from each position—and you want top talent for at least one of those positions.
One outlier is Baker Mayfield. He was the 6th-best scorer in fantasy last year, but this is where a little research can help. Mayfield played a season in which he engineered numerous 4th-quarter touchdowns. The Buccaneers played seven games in which they either won or lost by less than a touchdown, and three of those games went into overtime. That means Mayfield was still throwing late in the game, especially in the games they ended up losing. The likelihood of the dynamics of that season repeating is not strong. So Mayfield's numbers, though they should be good, are not likely to be as high.
When drafting a quarterback, you need to take into account several variables beyond arm talent. First, what weapons does he have? Goff has Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta to throw to. Redshirt rookie JJ McCarthy has Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hockinson catching his passes. On the other side, Justin Herbert has Ladd McConkey (very good), Quentin Johnston (a disappointment), and Keenan Allen (in the twilight of his career) as targets and plays in a run-heavy offense. While I like Herbert, there is no way I would take him before the 7th round.
Here, I have stacked the quarterbacks in tiers, and I am ranking them within those tiers.
Tier 1 — Take them early (Round 3 if necessary):
- Lamar Jackson
- Josh Allen
- Jalen Hurts
- Joe Burrow
- Jayden Daniels
Tier 2 — Round 5 or later
- Baker Mayfield
- Jared Goff
- Justin Herbert
- Jordan Love
Tier 3 — Round 8 or later (these could be sleeper gems)
- Tua Tagovailoa — When Tua is healthy, he often lights it up. He has two terrific wideouts to throw to, and Mike McDaniel knows how to scheme.
- Bo Nix
- Brock Purdy
- Dak Prescott — I may get burned here, but Dak has too many weapons to crash and burn.
There are a few outliers. Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson are two former stars whose performance has been subpar over the last few years, and they are playing for weak to average teams. You might target one of them as your QB2.
Sam Darnold had an excellent year last year—for Minnesota, with a great receiving corps, a good running game, and an outstanding playcaller as his head coach. This year, he is on a team that lacks that. Look for him to regress. Maybe not to the putridness of his pre-Niners career, but lower than I would want to risk. (Besides, he's a Seahawk now. Do you really want Seahawks players on your team?)
What about 49ers QB Brock Purdy?
Brock Purdy was just named one of the "safest" picks after round three by NFL.com's Michelle Magdziuk. She writes, "Among QBs over the last two seasons, only Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts have notched more 20-plus fantasy point games than Purdy; those three will likely be selected at the top of fantasy drafts, while Purdy can be had in the ninth round."
We know that the 49ers' receiving corps is unsettled at best right now, but getting Purdy with a late pick, especially if he is your QB2, would be outstanding.
We are only a few Sundays away from the real games, and you will want to conduct your drafts a week or two before that. I'll be back next week with some draft strategies.