This is the second installment on fantasy drafting. Today it's running backs. (Find my article on wide receivers here.)
There are more good receivers than running backs—and/or there is an earlier and more sustained run on good running backs—so the number of available good ball carriers begins to dwindle early. It's a good idea, therefore, to take at least one good back with one of your first two picks. Last year, the recommended #1 pick was Christian McCaffrey, but he was injured, so you want to take note of players' health and not rely solely on the website's rankings.
In general, a back who can catch the ball well is a good choice because he will have more opportunities to score well in fantasy. A few of those are Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Bijan Robinson. They not only get a heavy load of carries, but they are frequently the 3rd-down option. Taking a back in this category, even if it is five picks ahead of a supposedly better back, is not always a bad idea.
Make sure to know the team's offensive philosophy. For instance, the Baltimore Ravens are a run-heavy offense, so their top running back—Derrick Henry—gets a lot of carries, and the #1 back on any team is likely to get carries at the goal line and therefore have numerous opportunities to score touchdowns, which are the real point-makers in fantasy.
San Francisco 49ers Options
The Niners' situation for fantasy RBs is pretty straightforward. If McCaffrey is healthy, he will get the lion's share of the carries, and he is the best receiving back in the league. He should be a top-5 pick. However, if he gets hurt and is out for a significant amount of time (please NO!), the next back up, likely Isaac Guerendo, will get a lot of attention. Last year, Jordan Mason was a great fantasy pickup.
Top Fantasy Options
Here are my top 10 fantasy backs and when I would draft them:
- Christian McCaffrey—The best all-around back: 1st round
- Saquon Barkley—The second-best: 1st round
- Bijan Robinson—Atlanta will want to protect their young QB, Michael Penix, so Robinson will get a lot of touches: 1st round
- Jahmyr Gibbs—He is now the clear RB1 in Detroit: 1st round
- Derrick Henry—For some reason, the experts often have him lower, but he proves them wrong year after year: 2nd round
- Ashton Jeanty—Some have him higher, but I am always cautious with rookies: 2nd round
- De'Von Achane—Excellent in fantasy but sometimes fragile: 2nd round
- Josh Jacobs—2nd round
- Jonathan Taylor—2nd round (he might be available in the 3rd, depending on how the draft falls and where you pick)
- Bucky Irving—2nd round (like Taylor, he might be available in the 3rd)
A Few Others to Note
David Montgomery is the #2 back in Detroit, but he gets a good number of carries and is often used in goal-line situations. He is a decent RB2 in fantasy and a very good RB3.
Kyren Williams is just outside the top 10, so he would be an outstanding RB2 and a solid RB1 if you wait to take running backs.
Alvin Kamara scored well last year, but New Orleans has a lot of problems on offense, and that could drag down his production.
James Cook is more involved in Buffalo than he was as a rookie, so he would be a good RB2.
Chuba Hubbard is often overlooked because Carolina's offense has been anemic for a long time. He would be an excellent RB3 and a decent RB2.
Evaluating the NFL Preseason
This weekend is the start of the preseason games. Those statistics don't tell us a lot about what will happen in the real games, but they might suggest who the top backups will be. You should take note of that. And let's hope all of the players go into the games healthy and come out unscathed.