Although we are not yet to the preseason, I will be offering some position group notes so you know whom to monitor as training camp progresses and the preseason games begin. Today, I will address the receivers and tight ends.
When drafting pass catchers, you want to look for consistency. You can do this partly on target share and knowing who the #1 receiver is for specific teams. You also want to be aware of the quarterback and system. A run-first offense will limit the targets to receivers. A more wide-open offense, such as Detroit's, will give the receivers ample opportunities for putting up big numbers.
Last year, the top 5 wide receivers in terms of average per game were Ja'Marr Chase, Chris Godwin, Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Godwin is a bit of an outlier because he got injured during the season. Tee Higgins was 6th and only 0.1 point behind St. Brown, but Higgins missed several games, and his scores were erratic, with scores over 40 points in one game and under 10 in three others. Therefore, while Higgins is an excellent fantasy receiver, I would not take him over AJ Brown, whose average was a little lower but was more reliable for fantasy.
It's also important to remember that tight ends score the same way receivers do, and top tight ends—Brock Bowers, George Kittle, and Trey McBride—would be in the top 20 of receivers. You might, therefore, consider grabbing a tight end with your third-round pick and getting a second wide receiver later.
There are more good receivers than running backs, so you should consider getting a running back with your first pick unless you are picking in the top 5, and therefore, Chase or Jefferson might be available.
Note: You should draft two tight ends, one in the first five rounds and one later. Make sure they do not have the same bye week.
49ers wide receiver options
Brandon Aiyuk
If healthy, Aiyuk is the 49ers' best receiver. If he is supposed to be ready in the first quarter of the season, you might make him your second receiver taken. If it looks like the second half of the season, you might make him a mid-round pick (round 8 or later). Aiyuk is considered a high-risk/high-reward pick.
Jauan Jennings
Because Brandon Aiyuk is going to be out for a while, Jennings will get a lot of targets. He is a reliable receiver and a red zone mismatch. He would be an excellent WR3 pickup. (If Jennings gets traded, this still would not change.)
Ricky Pearsall
Pearsall finished the year strong last season. If he can get and stay healthy during training camp, and if you draft more running backs early, he would be a good WR3 option.
Jacob Cowing
Cowing has apparently looked good in workouts. He has a hamstring issue now, but if it heals and he looks to be San Francisco's third receiver, he would be a good late-round pick.
Jordan Watkins
Watkins is a talented rookie who might fly under the radar. If he looks to be the number 3 receiver early in the season, you might take him in a late round (10 or later). In that case, he might be a steal.
49ers tight end options
George Kittle
Kittle is the best tight end in football, but in fantasy, I put him behind Bowers. That is because the 49ers run the ball a lot, and Kittle is a great blocker. If their wide receiver room gets thinner (if Jennings is traded, for instance, or injuries keep someone out), then you might consider Kittle the top fantasy tight end because his target share would go up. But we know Bowers gets targeted more than anyone on the Raiders. His numbers should be high.
Top NFL wide receivers
Here are my top wide receivers:
- Ja'Marr Chase
- Justin Jefferson
- CeeDee Lamb
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Puka Nacua
- AJ Brown
- Nico Collins
- Brian Thomas
- Mike Evans
- Tee Higgins (monitor his health)
Information to gather: Collins is coming off an injury. If he is fully healthy, you might move him ahead of Brown.
Around the NFL
Malik Nabers
Many have him in the top 10, even top 5, receivers. I think he's great, but I like others better because of quarterback play.
Davante Adams
Adams was one of the best not too long ago, but in the last two years, his performance has dropped. That might have been due to poor quarterback play. He is now with the Rams and Matthew Stafford, but he will probably not get as many targets as Nacua will. Still, he would be an excellent WR2.
Tyreek Hill
Hill was one of the best a few years ago. He had an injury issue last year, but also an attitude issue. I would not make him your first WR taken, but he could be a good WR2 if you wait on taking receivers.
Ladd McConkey
McConkey is a target machine. He would be an excellent WR2.
Dark horse:
I love Terry McLaurin. He is currently in a contract dispute with Washington, but he is much better than anyone seems to notice. He would be a very good WR2, an excellent WR3.
Top tight ends:
- Brock Bowers
- George Kittle
- Trey McBride
- Sam LaPorta
- Travis Kelce
Research:
Two rookies, Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland, have a lot of talent. Warren's quarterback situation in Indianapolis is shaky, but he will likely get a lot of targets. Either would be worth a mid-round (round 8 and later) pick.
Note: In the past, Travis Kelce has been one of the best fantasy tight ends in the game. Many fantasy gurus have dropped him behind several tight ends because last year he looked to have slowed down. However, reports are that he is in better shape. I, therefore, have him higher.
Even though you should wait to take part in a draft a few weeks from now—perhaps sometime in Week 2 of preseason games—it is always good to start thinking about it and planning ahead. I will bring you notes on running backs next week.