Rookies have arrived at training camp. Veterans report in a few days. All eyes will look to figure out who will dominate this year.
No one pays closer attention than fantasy football enthusiasts. And no one is more of a fantasy beast than I am. Yes, I am getting older, and so I will likely have only 33 teams like I did last year. Alas, I no longer have the energy I had in 2020, when I had 54. (I have also had 42, and I am sure you will note the Niner numbers.) However, I'm still deeply invested in it, designing draft strategies for various draft slots, exploring ways to manipulate the board, and developing discipline, among other things.
In this column, I aim to help those preparing for the season make informed choices. I will also address where to draft our beloved 49ers to maximum effect. Some of my projections might surprise you.
In this initial installment, I will outline some basic parameters for approaching your draft whenever that may be. I try to wait until late in the preseason to avoid taking a player who gets hurt during camp. I will be referring to leagues that use points per reception (PPR) scoring, which I like because it evens the production of running backs and pass catchers. The default league size at ESPN is 10 teams, so consider these suggestions roughly in relation to that size.
Here are a few early pieces of wisdom.
A great player vs. a great fantasy player
The first rule of thumb when drafting is to avoid taking a player simply because he is one of the best at his position in the league. A great example of this is Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is often considered the top quarterback in the league, but last year he had only the 11th-best average points per game among quarterbacks—7.6 points behind the leader, Lamar Jackson. The top fantasy quarterbacks are often good runners, so you should consider that.
While no one would argue Jalen Hurts is a better quarterback than Mahomes, you should take the Eagles' signal caller in a heartbeat over the multiple-MVP Chief (for detailed stats, ESPN has numerous helpful pages). Jared Goff led the league in passing yards and was 4th in touchdown passes, but he scored no rushing touchdowns and ran for only 56 yards for the season, so his fantasy numbers were pedestrian.
Who is around him?
It would be natural to look at who a quarterback is throwing to in order to gauge future success, but that is only one factor. The quality of the offensive line, the coach's commitment to the running game, and the overall effectiveness of the offense are all significant factors. In other words, if a team's offense is explosive, they might play with a lot of leads, and that means the QB won't be throwing a lot in the second half of games.
Running backs or wide receivers
Though many would advise taking a running back with your first pick, I would suggest something a little more nuanced. If you are drafting in the top 5 in a 10-team league, take a running back, but after that, you might consider going with a wide receiver. Ja'Marr Chase is ranked as the top fantasy player on many fantasy guides, but if you have the #1 overall pick, you might consider the fact that there will be 19 picks between your first one and your second.
It is a simple fact that there are more strong fantasy receivers than running backs, and you might be better served taking a top back, such as Saquon Barkley, and then picking up a receiver with your next pick, and maybe your third. Simple math tells you that someone like Tee Higgins or Ladd McConkey will be there. If you are lucky, a star such as AJ Brown will fall.
Count targets, not touchdowns
Even the best receivers don't score a touchdown every game. In the history of the NFL, a player has averaged one a game only a few dozen times, and when you consider that those seasons included multi-touchdown games, you just can't count on even the superstars to reach the endzone every week. But even if the defense is keeping your man out of the endzone, the really great wide receivers know how to get open, and quarterbacks know how to get the ball to their favorite targets. That's why Puka Nacua was a great fantasy player in his rookie year. He only scored 6 touchdowns, but those 105 receptions meant a lot of points.
So, when you are trying to predict what a receiver will produce each week, subtract the touchdown points from each game he played. The receptions and yards will likely be more consistent.
Note for the Faithful: You might not realize that fantasy football has been around for decades. While people marveled at Ja'Marr Chase's 55.4 points in one game last year, the modern record belongs to—who else?—our beloved Jerry Rice, who put up 65.5 in 1990. Just let that sink in—and bask in the glory.
A kicker needs a good but not great offense
Though you should wait until late in the draft to get a kicker (don't pick one until the last three rounds), I would recommend you choose among those who have good offenses—but not necessarily great offenses. The reason is this: the great offenses score a lot of touchdowns, which affords the kicker a chance for only 1 point for the extra point attempt. However, a good offense will usually at least make it into field goal range, so the kicker may have numerous opportunities for 3 or more. Jake Bates, kicker for the Detroit Lions, the team that averaged the most points per game, was only the 12th-best fantasy kicker, whereas Austin Seibert of the Commanders led the league.
Know yourself—this is for fun
At heart, fantasy football is a great way to become interested in games you might not have had any interest in in the past. But its purpose is to have fun. If you have a player you love, try to get him. If that means "reaching" a little, who cares? Mel Kiper is not in your league, and what matters is that you get to cheer for the players you want.
Let's look forward to another fun campaign. More help in the future before you draft.