The offseason is in semi-swing, with the San Francisco 49ers conducting their mandatory minicamp before breaking until training camp in July. The topics in the press, as would be expected, are often speculations concerning who will win the jobs of the players who left in free agency, were released, or are out due to an injury.
Wide Receiver
The first position group on many minds is wide receiver. Deebo Samuel is gone, and Brandon Aiyuk is hurt. Demarcus Robinson may be out for three games with a suspension. Many wonder whether Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall can perform well enough to keep the unit going.
But let's go ahead and stop right there. BA is the 49ers' number one receiver when healthy. That's a given. He's a Pro Bowler when he's on the field. But Demarcus Robinson? Last year, his eighth in the league, Robinson finally cracked 500 yards for the season with 505. This is a player who is over 30 and has been a number-three wide receiver for most of his career. Compare that to Jennings. In his fourth year, when he received more playing time because others were injured, Jennings exploded for 975 yards and six scores. It seems a tad disrespectful to suggest that Jennings can hold down the fort until Demarcus gets back. No, when Robinson gets back, Jennings will still start ahead of him.
And let's not forget that Jennings is one of the best blocking wideouts in football.
Then there's Pearsall. He only played in 11 games after sustaining a gunshot wound prior to the start of the regular season, but he still put up 400 yards and three scores. Robinson was well under that in half his seasons, and the years he was over 400, he played 16 or 17 games. In other words, Pearsall should be starting even when Robinson comes back.
The question marks are Jacob Cowing (who has reportedly looked good in OTAs) and the rookies. Those we don't know—yet. But ultimately, it comes down to the same thing as last year: health. The 49ers were 6-11 last year because of injuries, not a lack of talent. If Aiyuk comes back healthy, the 49ers will have a very strong starting three. That if is not one of talent, as many pundits seem to suggest, but availability.
Secondary
This comes down to two words: availability and slot. The former refers to the safeties. Last year, the 49ers were without Talanoa Hufanga, but Malik Mustapha, one of the team's fourth-round picks, filled in admirably. But now Hufanga is gone, and Mustapha is hurt, so there is a big question as to whom the strong safety will be—until Mustapha returns. Again, talent is not the issue.
At corner, the 49ers have a different situation. When Charvarius "Mooney" Ward was out last year, Renardo Green played well, especially for a rookie. And when Ward came back, Green became the third corner. With Mooney gone to Indianapolis, though, the team is without a third corner. My hope is that draft pick Upton Stout will be the guy. The others on the roster do not inspire confidence.
Which leads into the next position group.
LBNFW (The Linebacker Next to Fred Warner)
This seems to come down to two players: Dee Winters, who filled in for Dre Greenlaw last season, and draft pick Nick Martin. As with the defensive line, if the rookie doesn't start, the defense will be weak at that position. Dee Winters is a decent player, but he is not someone who would start on a top-tier defense. Back when the 49ers had Warner, Greenlaw, and Azeez Al-Shaair, Winters would not have seen the field except on special teams.
So the predictions should not be that complicated. If the 49ers have good health, they should recover and make the playoffs. If they are beset by injuries again, they will struggle and probably have a relatively high pick. That is true of many, even most, teams.
One additional item:
Special Teams
Last year, the special teams unit was atrocious. (Indeed, it has been weak for years.) Fans were thrilled to read that the 49ers added a new special teams coordinator, Brant Boyer, who Marc Adams notes, in his excellent article, has been making various changes and additions to the personnel of that unit. Marc mentions rookie Junior Bergen, who returned seven punt returns for touchdowns in college. I predict he'll be the 49ers' punt returner, but what is more important is their coverage. Last year, it wasn't their punt returns that got them in trouble, but their coverage. The 49ers lost two kickers to injury because they had to make plays as the last line of defense. And again, that issue of availability raised its head.
The 49ers have a terrific head coach. They have talent. It's now a question of whether the health gods bless them or not.
49ers fans are called the Faithful. Let's hope that works.