ESPN's Aaron Schatz recently ranked last season's last-place teams by their chances to finish in first place within their respective divisions. Among those teams are the San Francisco 49ers, who ended their 2024 season with a disappointing 6-11 record and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2020.
Injuries played a significant role in the 49ers' struggles, and a significant offseason roster overhaul has fueled skepticism among critics who foresee another challenging year. However, there are reasons for optimism—starting with the 49ers' schedule. San Francisco enters 2025 with the easiest slate in the NFL, based on opponents' winning percentages from last season, which could significantly aid a bounce-back campaign.
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According to Schatz, the 49ers top the list of potential worst-to-first candidates with a 35.8% chance to win the NFC West—the highest in the division. Their playoff odds stand at 62.4%, the third-best in the NFC. Much of that confidence is rooted in a more favorable schedule, expectations of improved health, and the belief that the 49ers' 2024 performance wasn't as bad as their record suggests.
"San Francisco finished the 2024 season ranked ninth in FPI (ESPN's Football Power Index)," Schatz wrote. "DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) ratings at FTN didn't have the 49ers quite that high, but they were still 14th despite a losing record. Their DVOA of 6.7% was easily the best ever by an 11-loss team, going all the way back to 1978."
Additionally, the 49ers retained their foundational talent. The team secured long-term deals for quarterback Brock Purdy, tight end George Kittle, and linebacker Fred Warner, key pieces of the team's leadership core. They also supplemented their roster with 11 draft picks, including three defensive linemen expected to make an immediate impact.
"The 49ers will return a ton of key players from injuries this season, including running back Christian McCaffrey, wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, and left tackle Trent Williams," Schatz continued. "While the Lions' defense dominated headlines because of its injuries in 2024, the 49ers led the NFL in adjusted games lost to injury. That's a clear indicator for improvement in 2025."
The lighter schedule is also why the FPI gives San Francisco the edge over the defending NFC West champion, the Los Angeles Rams, in the upcoming division race.
"The NFC South and AFC South make for an easy schedule outside of their division games, while the 49ers also get to play the Giants, Browns, and Bears," Schatz added. "The Rams have a much harder slate with matchups against the Eagles, Ravens, and Lions."
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