Despite finishing last in the NFC West with a 6-11 record last season, the San Francisco 49ers enter the 2025 campaign as favorites to win the division. That may seem surprising after an offseason that saw a significant roster overhaul, including the departure of several key contributors and their replacement by rookies—always a gamble in the NFL.
So, why are the 49ers still favored to win the NFC West?
ESPN analyst Seth Walder broke it down in a recent feature, pointing to one key factor: the competition San Francisco will face in 2025.
According to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), the Los Angeles Rams narrowly rank as the top team in the division. However, when it comes to division title odds, the 49ers hold a slight edge, with a 36% chance of winning the NFC West compared to the Rams' 34%.
"Why the discrepancy? Strength of schedule," Walder explained. "No team enters 2025 with an easier slate than the 49ers, who not only get to face the NFC South and AFC South like the rest of their division, but also the Giants, Browns, and Bears due to finishing last in the division in 2024. In comparison, the Rams must face the Eagles, Ravens, and Lions as part of their first-place schedule."
San Francisco's 2025 strength of schedule stands at .415, based on opponents' 2024 winning percentages, a notable drop from last year's .505 mark. Outside of the NFC West, the 49ers will face only two teams from the 2024 playoffs—the Houston Texans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They'll also square off with the defending division champion Rams twice.
Adding to their favorable outlook is the timing of those matchups. By Week 10, San Francisco will have already faced the Texans, Buccaneers, and Rams, setting up a manageable final stretch run that includes a Week 14 bye.
"That is enough to give San Francisco the edge over Los Angeles in the projections," Walder continued. "It also indicates the FPI's belief in the 49ers bouncing back after a brutally disappointing 6-11 campaign. A big part of that faith is the betting market believing that the 49ers were hampered by injuries to key players last season -- including wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, running back Christian McCaffrey, and offensive lineman Trent Williams -- and that they should be dangerous if healthy."