Get ready for a home playoff game, San Francisco 49ers fans. At least, that's what NFL Media analyst Cynthia Frelund is projecting for the Bay Area team in the 2025 season. Following the release of the NFL schedule, Frelund incorporated the new information into her win projections, factoring in challenges like multiple cross-country trips and consecutive matchups against elite quarterbacks.
The outcome?
Frelund projects the 49ers to finish with nearly 10 wins (9.9, to be exact), which would be enough to secure the NFC West crown. Only three teams earned higher win projections—the Philadelphia Eagles (11.0), Washington Commanders (10.2), and Detroit Lions (10.0).
"The Niners' fourth-place finish last season turned into a real W for Kyle Shanahan's squad," Frelund noted, "at least in terms of how the league's scheduling formula works, with the biggest threat among fellow 2024 fourth-placers on the 2025 slate being the Bears -- and they don't come to town until Week 17, by which time there should be plenty of clarity around this season."
As for the rest of the NFC West, the Los Angeles Rams trail closely behind San Francisco with a 9.7-win projection, followed by the Seattle Seahawks (8.1) and Arizona Cardinals (8.0).
"As of now, San Francisco doesn't have back-to-back games in which it is not favored to win, even factoring in all the defensive turnover this offseason," Frelund added.
The 49ers lost several key defensive contributors this offseason, including Dre Greenlaw, Charvarius Ward, Talanoa Hufanga, Javon Hargrave, Maliek Collins, and Leonard Floyd. They used their 11 draft picks to replenish the roster.
While it may take time for the defense to find its rhythm under returning coordinator Robert Saleh, San Francisco benefits from having the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL, giving the team a solid opportunity to grow and contend.
H/t to Grant Cohn of Sports Illustrated for the find.