Merry draftmas, everyone!
More than most NFL Drafts, the 2025 version feels consequential to the future of the San Francisco 49ers. After a tumultuous offseason where the team parted ways with several highly-paid veterans - and many starters - the 49ers draft room, led by General Manager John Lynch, has an opportunity to reload and replenish the team, with needs at multiple spots.
Fortunately, the team has eleven available draft picks to do so, starting with the eleventh pick in the first round in Thursday night's prime time extravaganza. Predicting what the team might do with that pick is difficult too, with mock drafts matching around fifteen or sixteen different players as potential options to join the team at that spot.
Let's take a look at applying some logic to the noise and see if we can't get to who the eventual person might be who dons the 49ers cap and jersey on Thursday evening.
The 49ers are more likely to trade up than down in the first round
Let me start by saying that I don't think either of these moves is likely - I think the 49ers will ultimately stay at pick 11 and make their choice and be happy with it. If the team does move, however, I would expect it to be more likely up in the first round than down.
There's a few reasons for this - the first one being the 49ers sheer number of picks. With four picks in the top 100 and eleven overall, the 49ers have a lot of draft capital to make moves if they so desire. What that also means, however, is that there's a serious chance of quantity over quality. Even with a significant amount of places where the roster could use an infusion of youth and quality, the idea of eleven rookies making the 49ers 2025 squad - particularly with the team still carrying several high-quality and high-priced veterans and likely looking to bounce back into the playoffs - seems fanciful.
Couple that with the possibility of a high-quality player falling within the 49ers trade-up range (think Michigan DT Mason Graham or Missouri OT Armand Membou, for example) and it's more possible, in my opinion at least, that the 49ers actually move up in the draft. It likely won't be far - I'd rule out the idea of jumping into the top 5 - but if someone falls into a sweet spot around the eighth or ninth pick, I'd be surprised if the team doesn't start working the phones.
The 49ers will not draft an offensive lineman in the first round (unless...)
As a passionate fan of building a strong offensive line and a strong critic of how the team has approached those key positions, it doesn't give me much pleasure to type this. However, there are lots of reasons why this will be yet another year the 49ers don't spend their top pick on an offensive lineman, and in fairness to Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch, it's not all their fault.
The biggest reason is, ultimately, the quality of the prospects at the offensive line positions. Much like the draft itself, the position is long on depth but short on top quality. While some have mocked the likes of Will Campbell and Kelvin Banks to the team, their lack of arm length - a key trait the 49ers value in their trench players - will likely mean the team looks elsewhere. The vast majority of offensive line talent mocked to the 49ers project better as interior players, and while better play on the interior, particularly at the left guard spot vacated by Aaron Banks or the center spot currently occupied by Jake Brendel, would be welcomed, the 49ers have made it relatively clear through previous draft choices and other offseason decisions what they value highest. The interior offensive line, for better or worse, isn't it.
This also applies to Daniel Jeremiah's latest mock draft selection for the 49ers, North Dakota State's versatile OL Grey Zabel. While Zabel is an excellent player, and could feasibly be a useful backup for all five offensive line spots while starting at one, unless there is someone the 49ers consider a bona fide starting offensive tackle sitting there at pick 11 (or wherever the 49ers happen to pick), an offensive lineman won't be the choice.
The only likely options would involve either a fall from a projected spot in the draft (in the case of Missouri OT Armand Membou) or the 49ers valuing a recovering borderline first-round player (Ohio State's OT Josh Simmons) above their current projected spot. Not out of the realms of possibility, but not very likely, either.
Most picks at EDGE will rely on the reputation of Kris Kocurek to succeed, and may be why the 49ers don't take one
A similar conundrum awaits the team at another big need position - that of edge, or pass rusher.
The team has arguably been searching for a bookend to Nick Bosa from the moment he arrived in Santa Clara, and the list of players who were tried to solve the issue is littered with almost-weres, has-beens, and never-looked-likely-to-bes - think the likes of Dee Ford, Samson Ebukam, Drake Jackson and Leonard Floyd.
The 49ers could try again at pick 11, with a number of options such as Shemar Stewart, Mykel Williams, Mike Green, Jalon Walker being suggested. However, there is a fairly big problem with most of those names, and there's certainly a potential issue with how the 49ers develop talent as well.
The EDGE class, at least this year, seems to me to lack a definitive option that will be a Day 1 starter. Almost every single available player at the position is something of a projection - someone like Shemar Stewart, for example, has been extensively linked to the team, but any cursory look into his production should give cause for alarm. While he is an athletic freak who tests well, the fact he's only logged 4.5 sacks in his three years in college ought to be a massive red flag, particularly picking as high as 11. You can add other players to this too - the likes of Walker and Williams are largely projections as edge players in the 49ers scheme, and while they're excellent players, they would require coaching up to be an immediate asset to the team.
In one sense, that shouldn't be a problem, as the 49ers defensive line coach, Kris Kocurek, has a wonderful reputation for bringing out the best in players. Unfortunately, that's largely been formed by what he's got out of veteran players. The likes of Charles Omenihu, Arden Key, Cle Ferrell and Jordan Willis built or rebuilt their careers under Kocurek, often going on to pick up much bigger contracts after leaving the team. Rookies, however, and younger players, haven't quite thrived as well. The 49ers have selected the likes of Drake Jackson, Javon Kinlaw and Robert Beal in recent years, but none have amounted to more than a blip on the radar screen when it's come to making a genuine impact on the team.
While that's not necessarily a criticism of Kocurek, I do think it might give the 49ers pause in drafting an edge at the 11th pick. While there is the possibility that one of the suggested players would make the most of their athletic gifts to make a genuine impact in the NFL, and become a great defensive player, they feel like too much of a projection and risk to take with such a high pick. That's particularly true given the solid options available at other positions of need for the team.
The 49ers most likely pick is a defensive tackle
That brings me to what looks like the most solid position available to the team in the first round - defensive tackle.
The 49ers struggles at defensive tackle have been well documented - it's arguable that since the trade of DeForest Buckner in 2020, the team has pretty much been reeling at the position, despite high-profile signings like Javon Hargrave. Drafting Javon Kinlaw didn't work out as a replacement either, while DJ Jones and Arik Armstead, both of whom provided plus value at the position, eventually moved on from the team. In Jones's case, that was for big bucks, and the team has largely been yearning for him back or a similar style player ever since.
That resulted in last year's swings at fixing the position, with the likes of Maliek Collins and Jordan Elliott being acquired, but it didn't really work out. The team's run defense was execrable, and the pass rush didn't improve much either. If anything, undrafted free agent Evan Anderson outplayed both. That made it not a huge surprise that the team moved on from both Collins and Hargrave in the 2025 offseason.
Fortunately, this might be the first time in a while that the 49ers have the ability to swing at a number of top class defensive tackles to fill this problematic position. Both Ole Miss's Walter Nolen and Oregon's Derrick Harmon project to be available at the team's spot, while if the team is interested in more of a space-eating tackle like the aforementioned Jones, Michigan's Kenneth Grant should also be available.
Reasonable minds can differ on which the best defensive tackle is that's available to the 49ers when they step up to pick, but it would be hard to say that it's not the position with the most proven options available to them when they do. Especially if the likes of Michigan's Mason Graham fall to 11 as well, which at least one prominent draftnik thinks is possible.
While predictions for the 49ers draft pick are all over the board, a simple look at the talent of the likely available options versus their value at pick 11 would suggest to me that the most likely pick from the team will come in the middle of the defensive line.
Don't rule out a wildcard pick
With all logic applied, the 49ers pick should come at one of the following positions: either defensive tackle (as just discussed), edge/pass rusher (if the team likes one of the projections for talent), or possibly defensive back, as cornerback options like Will Johnson and Jahdae Barron look like solid options.
However, the 49ers sometimes like to surprise us on draft day. I'm fairly sure no one had Ricky Pearsall mocked to the team last year for example (and definitely not in the first round), while other picks like Mike McGlinchey and Renardo Green have seemed like potential reaches at first before going on to be solid options.
Could the 49ers do it again?
Absolutely. While it would be a major surprise, adding an offensive weapon like TE Tyler Warren - if he's available - or possibly a versatile defensive piece like LB Jihaad Campbell (a potential replacement for Dre Greenlaw and a potential successor to Fred Warner) could be an option. Campbell in particular represents an intriguing option, and potentially a player someone like new defensive coordinator Robert Saleh might find himself banging the table for on draft night.
Warren, meanwhile, would add yet another blade to the 49ers offensive Swiss Army knife, and while George Kittle will surely work out a long-term extension with the team eventually, it will infuse the team's offense with some potentially badly-needed youth, while giving Shanahan yet another weapon to call plays for. It's not hard to see the team, particularly Shanahan, falling in love with the idea.
Choosing one of these two might not end up being the most popular move given the 49ers' plethora of needs, but the 49ers' war room has shown - multiple times - that outside noise doesn't affect its decision making. I still lean towards a defensive tackle being the choice, but a surprise pick really can't be ruled out.
Pick prediction
Ultimately, I believe the 49ers will take a defensive tackle, and I think it will end up being Ole Miss prospect Walter Nolen. His combination of athletic skills and high ceiling will appeal to the team. However, this is written on the basis that Michigan DT Mason Graham doesn't fall far enough to be in the 49ers range. Should that happen, I think the 49ers won't be able to turn their card in fast enough.
But - that's just one man's opinion. No one outside the 49ers building likely knows, and there are so many options it's hard to say for definite. One thing it's sure to bring, however, for the first time in a while, is an exciting draft day.
I can't wait. Enjoy, everyone!