This year, the 49ers are in a very unusual position. They have numerous holes on the roster, but they are not a bad team. When John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan arrived in Santa Clara, the roster was terrible. There were very few good players. Therefore, when they drafted, they could take any number of people in any round and improve the squad. They were not restricted to a position, and they were not set on a special skill set. It was a building project everyone knew would probably take three years to become relevant again.
That is different this year. The 49ers desperately need players at specific positions, most clearly, defensive line (both defensive end/edge rusher and defensive tackle) and offensive line (any of the three positions, but especially guard and tackle). There is additional pressure to choose someone good at offensive tackle because not only is Colton McKivitz not a strong player, but Trent Williams will likely retire in the next year or two, and will have to be replaced. Getting someone who could start at right tackle now (or even left guard) and then slide to left tackle when Williams retires would take a lot of pressure off Lynch to scramble for a replacement later.
To go along with that, McKivitz is a free agent next year, and generally, Lynch does not pay big money to average players. That is why Laken Tomlinson, Jaylon Moore, and Mike McGlinchey are no longer on the team (I approve of Lynch's philosophy completely).
To draft well, Lynch needs to employ a couple of rules and not deviate from them.
First, don't force it
This draft is not terribly deep at offensive tackle. There are three tackles worthy of the 11th pick: Armand Membou, Will Campbell, and Kelvin Banks Jr. Membou and Campbell will probably not be available when the 49ers pick, but Banks might be. He had a stellar career at Texas and would fit nicely.
If all three are gone, Lynch should not force it. Don't draft someone who would only be a right tackle. Some tackles will be available in the 2nd round that would be suitable for that.
I focus on the offensive line because this draft is loaded with defensive tackles, and there are quite a few very good edge rushers, too. But there are only a few defensive tackles who are worthy of the 11th pick: Mason Graham (who will be long gone) and Walter Nolen, who reportedly has some work ethic issues. I love Derrick Harmon out of Oregon, but he would make more sense in a trade back.
Don't gamble
Several mock drafts predict the 49ers will select Shemar Stewart, the edge rusher out of Texas A&M. No, no, and hell no. He is supposedly a boom or bust pick. Aside from the ridiculous numbers he put up in shorts at the Combine, he has no production. In 31 games, he produced 4.5 sacks—1.5 per year. Now, he's in the SEC, so he went against some All-Americans. Last year, for instance, he got his sacks against Bowling Green and Florida, but he got none against New Mexico State or McNeese State. Those are teams where you should be able to pad your stats.
If you take a player with the 11th pick, he should have produced in college (see: Mike Green, 17 sacks at Marshall, and he then dominated big-school linemen at the Senior Bowl). San Francisco needs starters, not projects. The 11th pick should be a force immediately, not someone everyone hopes will turn out. The 49ers don't have the luxury for that.
No future "readiness"
Another player I have seen frequently mocked to the Niners is Will Johnson, the cornerback from Michigan. Now, Johnson is a phenomenal corner, maybe the best in this class outside of Travis Hunter, but he gets injured. Last year, he missed several games because of turf toe. He could not perform at the Combine because of a hamstring issue. And then he backed out of his pro day.
The 49ers should avoid players prone to injuries or getting over one but "should be ready by camp." The player must be able to walk onto the practice field right now.
San Francisco, sadly, has some history with drafting players with physical and emotional issues. In Lynch's first year, they selected Reuben Foster, an outstanding player but a head case. He didn't last the year. Joe Williams, taken in the 4th round, suffered from emotional problems. If anyone says, "I think we have the veteran leadership to ... ," the voice should say, very firmly, "Walk away." This is not college with freshmen being watched over in a dorm.
In 2019, Lynch drafted Jalen Hurd as a do-it-all receiver/running back, but he couldn't stay healthy. Perhaps the most notable was Javon Kinlaw in 2020, the 14th pick, who was supposed to replace DeForest Buckner. There is no doubt Kinlaw has some talent. There is also no doubt that it was a wasted pick. And after the Trey Lance trade, they selected Drake Jackson with one of their few picks left. He's rarely played.
These were not bad luck situations. It isn't like Kinlaw was completely healthy and got injured during training camp. That is horrible luck, especially for the young man, but it wouldn't have been a foolish pick. All of these players listed had known problems at the time of the draft.
The 49ers do not need to draft an injured corner with their first pick, someone who has trouble keeping his life together, or whose future is fantasy. This is a draft that John Lynch needs to hit. He needs to consider only players who check the boxes of physical and emotional health, production, and maturity. There are plenty of players who are starting caliber. The 49ers need to take one with each pick.
Comments