When evaluating the success of an NFL team's draft, the acid test boils down to one question: Is the team better than it was when it entered the draft?
With the San Francisco 49ers, however, that is not so simple. Because they lost so many players to free agency and general money concerns, the roster does not look like it did last year. And because there were so many injuries during the season, the game-day roster looked nothing like the one on paper when the season kicked off. And because they are shooting for Super Bowls, we really have to compare it to the squad that made it that far two years ago.
Below is a position-by-position breakdown of each unit on offense. I am using the 2023 Super Bowl team, last year's game-day roster, and roughly what we know right now.
The ultimate measurement of an offense is points scored. Last year, the 49ers were middle of the pack with 22.9 points per game. In 2023, they were 3rd in the league, with 28.9, nearly a touchdown better.
Quarterback
2023: Brock Purdy, Sam Darnold
2024: Brock Purdy, Brandon Allen, Joshua Dobbs
2025: Brock Purdy, Mac Jones
Though Sam Darnold had a good year last year for Minnesota, there is a reason his contract did not blow anyone away. He was a turnover machine in college (56 touchdowns to 36 turnovers) and continued that in the pros. When he joined the 49ers, he was on the minus side of touchdowns versus turnovers, never having had a season when he was on the plus side.
San Francisco now has Mac Jones, who has been criticized for his play in New England, but over the course of his 4-year career, Jones is on the plus side of the touchdown-turnover ratio.
I consider this a wash, at worst. Jones fits Kyle Shanahan's offense better than Darnold did and has a bigger upside than Darnold did when he joined the team.
Running back
2023: Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, Jordan Mason, Deebo Samuel*; Kyle Juszczyk (FB)
2024: Jordan Mason, Isaac Guerendo, Patrick Taylor, Deebo Samuel*; Kyle Juszczyk (FB)
2025: Christian McCaffrey, Isaac Guerendo, Patrick Taylor; Kyle Juszczyk (FB)
* All-purpose player, including lining up in the backfield
With McCaffrey back, the 49ers are automatically better than last year, but there is no doubt that losing Mason was a blow. That said, John Lynch and Shanahan have found good backs as undrafted free agents (Matt Breida, Mason), so they should be able to come out of the draft close to the 2023 depth chart. While Deebo was a great option in 2023, he was not very good last year. His 3.2 yards per rush is barely half of the 6.2 ypc in his breakout 2021 season. Guerendo got valuable playing time last year. If he develops, that would go a long way to getting the unit back to the 2023 level.
Tight end
2023: George Kittle, Ross Dwelley, Charlie Woerner
2024: George Kittle, Eric Saubert, Brayden Willis
2025: George Kittle, Luke Farrell, Brayden Willis
Farrell is supposed to be a very good blocker and is probably an upgrade over Woerner. Dwelley was a receiving tight end option and was average in that role. It is expected that Lynch will draft a tight end at some point in this year's draft. The 49ers are already better than last year's squad and might improve on the 2023 team.
Wide receiver
2023: Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, Ray-Ray McCloud
2024: Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall
2025: Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, Demarcus Robinson
The glaring difference on paper is losing Deebo this offseason, but because of Aiyuk's injury, judging this unit is almost impossible. Aiyuk only played in 7 games last year, and if all goes well with his recovery, it will be a little over that this year. Lynch will no doubt draft a receiver. How early is the question. If Aiyuk returns to full strength, the team will be better than last year and might match the 2023 collection. Jennings is much better now than he was two years ago. Pearsall's growth will be key.
Offensive line
2023: Trent Williams, Aaron Banks, Jake Brendel, Spencer Burford, Colton McKivitz
2024: Trent Williams, Aaron Banks, Jake Brendel, Dominick Puni, Colton McKivitz
2025: Trent Williams, [undecided], Jake Brendel, Dominick Puni, Colton McKivitz
Right guard might have cost the team the Super Bowl in 2023, and Dominick Puni was a stud upgrade at that position last year. The loss of Aaron Banks at left guard should not be significant if Lynch drafts well, and Colton McKivitz is imminently replaceable. Lynch should be able to replace those two—and perhaps Brendel, as well—this year. The offensive line should be improved, but this is the unit to watch when grading the draft. It is the unit Lynch struggles with.
What San Francisco currently has on offense this season is similar to what it had during its Super Bowl run two years ago. The 49ers don't have the depth at running back and wide receiver, and will feel the lack of Aiyuk until he returns—and everyone will be watching to see if he is a semblance of the player he was in 2023.
John Lynch needs to address the offensive line early. He has rarely done that, and his decisions late in the draft have not worked out well. He has drafted running backs poorly in early rounds and well in later rounds, or signed good ones after the draft.
The 49ers have a lot of playmakers on offense. Now, Lynch needs to give Purdy more time to throw, and the running backs bigger holes to run through. A good draft should net them new starters at right tackle and left guard.
The bottom line is, if they draft well and Aiyuk returns to full health, the offense might be as potent as it was two years ago.
Look for my evaluation of the defense tomorrow.