With the first wave of free agency over, the 49ers have made only minor signings. The team has added no potential starters, opting instead to target backups and special teams players. At the same time, the 49ers have seen a historic exodus of starting-caliber players. In fact, the team has the largest free-agent spending deficit NFL history.
Given that, this year's draft has taken on even more importance than normal. Later waves of free agency usually involve backup caliber players who lacked a strong market. So, the Draft will be the 49ers only chance to plug holes in the roster before the season starts.
But what exactly are the 49ers needs going into the draft? The defensive and offensive lines are obvious. But despite what some fans may fantasize about, the team will need to do more than fill out the lines of scrimmage if it wants to contend this year (or next).
Top Priorities—Defensive and Offensive Line
It's hard to overstate just how badly the 49ers need reinforcements on the defensive line. After cutting Maliek Collins and Leonard Floyd this offseason, the position group is one of the thinnest in football. On the interior, only Evan Anderson and Jordan Elliot seem like reliable options, and both graded out as average according to PFF. Behind them are Kevin Givens and Kalia Davis, two players that are, when healthy, rotational pieces at best.
On the edge, the situation is better, but not by much. Outside of Nick Bosa, the Niners have Yetur Gross-Matosand Sam Okuayinonu. Both are big-bodied, decent enough pass rushers, but neither is good enough to be a reliable bookend to Nick Bosa.
With all that in mind, the 49ers could take up to four defensive lineman in this draft, especially if they add draft picks after a trade. Especially with the return of Robert Saleh as defensive coordinator, the 49ers are likely to look to load up on big, strong defensive linemen that can hold their own against the run but push the pocket on passing downs. On top of that, the 49ers have missed on a number of defensive linemen recently, with Javon Kinlaw and Drake Jackson being notable early-round busts. And the team's later picks, like Robert Beal Jr. and Kalia Davis, haven't become more than depth pieces. So, the team needs to add depth up and down the defensive line.
On the offensive line, the situation is less dire, especially given the addition of Dominick Puni last year. Still, every season could be Trent Williams' last, and the other three spots on the offensive line could use upgrades. Colton McKivitz is an average right tackle, Jake Brendel is a solid run blocking center but can't be trusted in pass protection, and left guard is a question mark with the departure of both Aaron Banks and Jon Feliciano.
While the 49ers have been picky with their offensive line selections in recent years, the team might need to change that this year given the lack of depth at the position. Especially with Jaylon Moore going to Kansas City, the 49ers can't expect to compete if the offensive line starts suffering injuries. With eleven draft picks, the 49ers could look to take two or three offensive linemen who can contribute early.
Needed but Not Urgent—Cornerback, Linebacker, Safety
On every level of defense, the 49ers need to get better, faster, and younger. Ultimately, the 49ers don't have enough picks to fortify every need in the draft, so the team will need to pick and choose to an extent.
These position groups all have something in common. The 49ers have 1-2 reliable starters at each, but the depth behind that is questionable. At cornerback, two great young players, Deommodore Lenoir and Renardo Green, are followed by Tre Brown (a new signing) and Darrell Luter Jr., an unproven third-year player who's barely seen the field. At safety, Ji'Ayir Brown and Malik Mustapha are both promising young players, but the 49ers lack a true ball-hawking safety who can play by himself in single-high coverage. While Niners did add Jason Pinnock and Richie Grant in free agency, both are athletic players who struggled last year according to PFF. At linebacker, Dee Winters took a big step forward last year, but even for the 49ers he's very undersized for the position. After him, Jalen Graham and Tatum Bethune, while both showing flashes, combined for under 100 snaps last year.
Look for the 49ers to fill at least some of these needs in the draft. The team has signed some backup caliber players at each position, indicating that it doesn't want to feel like it needs to draft someone for each of these groups. But none of these signings are good enough to rule out drafting as well. For example, the 49ers recently met with Oregon linebacker Jeffery Bassa, a converted safety with similar measurables to ex-49er Dre Greenlaw. And the team has supposedly shown interest in multiple safeties and cornerbacks.
Would be Nice to Have—Wide Receiver, Tight End, Running Back
Lastly, the 49ers have reliable starters and backups at each of these spots, but might want to add some depth if possible. Any draft picks would be with an eye towards the future and potential injuries.
At wide receiver, the departure of Deebo Samuel means the 49ers may want to target a young receiver with after-the-catch ability. But given the drafting of Ricky Pearsall and Jacob Cowing last year, the 49ers may pass on a receiver. At tight end, the 49ers could use a reliable back-up to George Kittle, especially one who can be an offensive weapon. Adding one with receiving ability may kill two birds with one stone, letting the 49ers add an offensive weapon without needing to draft both a wide receiver and tight end. But the team hasn't seemed interested in pursuing that in the last couple of years, and the signing of Luke Farrell suggests that it may be looking more for a blocker than a receiver. Lastly, running back likely doesn't need any help with Christian McCaffery (hopefully) healthy for a full year. And Isaac Guerendo should be a more than adequate backup. Even behind him, the 49ers recently re-signed Patrick Taylor Jr., indicating that the team may skip on drafting a running back this year.
The 49ers have too many needs to fill through the draft alone. In an ideal world, they'd be able to pick four defensive linemen, three offensive linemen, a linebacker, safety, corner, and perhaps a couple offensive skill position players. But with only eleven picks, and three of them in the seventh round, it just isn't plausible that the 49ers can fill all of these needs, let alone fill them with immediate-impact players. The team will either have to make additional free agent signings, or hope that players currently on the roster take a step forward. Especially on defense, that's not impossible, with Robert Saleh hopefully turning around what was a woeful unit by the end of last year. But the 49ers still have a host of needs going into this year's draft.