The San Francisco 49ers are looking to sign quarterback Brock Purdy to a lucrative contract extension. The biggest question surrounding the impending deal is just how much it will be worth. Purdy's camp will argue that his success as the 49ers' starter—leading the team to two NFC Championship Games and a Super Bowl in his first two seasons—justifies a significant payday.
However, critics will argue that Purdy failed to carry the team through the adversity of an injury-plagued 2024 campaign, suggesting he shouldn't be paid like an elite quarterback. After setting a franchise record with 4,280 passing yards in 2023, Purdy saw a dip in production last season as several of his key playmakers were sidelined. The 49ers struggled to a 6-11 record, missing the playoffs.
ESPN analyst Aaron Schatz makes a compelling case against Purdy's detractors. Rather than viewing 2024 as proof that Purdy doesn't deserve a top-tier contract, Schatz argues that it highlighted his value.
"San Francisco's injuries in 2024 enhanced the case that Purdy is among the better quarterbacks in the NFL," Schatz wrote. "He finished seventh in QBR (67.9) in 2024 after leading the league in 2023. The idea that he's entirely dependent on San Francisco's YAC-friendly scheme was washed away when Purdy had a strong season despite the 49ers being close to the median with 5.5 average yards after the catch."
Purdy finished the season completing 65.9% of his passes for 3,864 yards, 20 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and a passer rating of 96.1—all dips in production compared to his 2023 numbers. But Schatz believes the 49ers' struggles were more a product of the circumstances around Purdy.
"My DVOA ratings had Purdy ranked seventh, and Kevin Cole's adjusted EPA measure, which attempts to adjust for everything from drops to YAC to opponent strength, also had Purdy seventh in value per play," Schatz noted.
The 49ers hope to finalize Purdy's extension quickly, avoiding the type of contract drama that has caused distractions in recent years. While San Francisco holds leverage in negotiations, Purdy's camp understands that general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan see him as the long-term answer at quarterback—and the team has few alternatives.
"It's going to be harder to build a roster if the 49ers are paying Purdy like a veteran, but he has earned it," Schatz added. "Jimmy Garoppolo showed that even mediocre quarterbacks can succeed in coach Kyle Shanahan's system, yet Purdy has succeeded at a much higher level. The 49ers don't want to start over and hope their next quarterback works out as well as this one has."
Will the Cardinals take advantage?
Schatz also suggests the Arizona Cardinals could exploit the 49ers' financial constraints this offseason. With several key 49ers players set to hit free agency and Purdy's looming contract set to tighten San Francisco's salary-cap flexibility, he believes Arizona should pursue defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, linebacker Dre Greenlaw, and cornerback Charvarius Ward.
"Hargrave (triceps) and Greenlaw (calf/Achilles) missed significant time in 2024 due to injuries, but Hargrave had an above-average pass rush win rate of 15.0% in the past two seasons, and Greenlaw was one of the better off-ball linebackers in the league in 2023," Schatz explained. "Ward had a bit of an off year in 2024, but he's going to be 29 this season and was above average in coverage DVOA in 2023."
If the Cardinals follow through, it could add even more intrigue to their two matchups against the 49ers each season.