Spotrac managing editor Michael Ginnitti believes the upcoming contract negotiations between the San Francisco 49ers and quarterback Brock Purdy could become one of the NFL's most intriguing storylines. Projecting how these talks might conclude is no easy task, but Purdy could have positioned himself for a significant payday with another standout season like his record-breaking 2023 campaign.
Unfortunately for Purdy, injuries decimated the 49ers' roster in 2024, complicating the situation. Critics viewed the team's struggles as proof that Purdy isn't capable of carrying San Francisco through adversity like other top-tier quarterbacks—arguing he shouldn't be paid as one.
"It was perfectly plausible to evaluate Purdy's looming extension along the lines of Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, or even Joe Burrow based on his ability to both navigate and manage one of the top teams in all of football for multiple seasons," Ginnitti explained.
"It now seems perfectly plausible to evaluate Purdy a tier below that threshold, especially with the growing sense that the 49ers aren't going to be negotiating against another other NFL team for Purdy's services going forward (a mistake the Giants made with Daniel Jones 2+ years ago)."
Still, Purdy's camp will point to the success the 49ers have enjoyed with the young quarterback at the helm of head coach Kyle Shanahan's offense. San Francisco appeared in two NFC Championship Games and a Super Bowl during Purdy's first two NFL seasons. However, a disappointing 6-11 finish in 2024 fell well short of the franchise's lofty championship expectations.
Ginnitti predicts that the 49ers may hesitate to offer Purdy an elite-level contract, resulting in what both sides hoped to avoid—a holdout and offseason drama.
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Ginnitti's prediction: "The 49ers offer Brock Purdy a well-below-market 3-year, $105M extension, including $50M guaranteed. Purdy declines the offer, holds out most of the summer, then returns to play on his $5M salary for 2025, setting up free agency or a potential franchise tag in 2026."
That $35 million annual salary wouldn't even place Purdy among the NFL's top 15 highest-paid quarterbacks. He would rank 18th based on average salary—just above Baker Mayfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($33.3 million) and below Derek Carr of the New Orleans Saints and Aaron Rodgers of the New York Jets (both at $37.5 million).
In January, Ginnitti projected a four-year, $194 million deal for Purdy with $100 million guaranteed, sparking significant debate. Some saw the $48.5 million annual salary as fair, while others felt it was either too much or too little. If such a deal doesn't come to fruition and Purdy holds out, 49ers fans could be in for a stress-filled offseason.
H/t to Grant Cohn of Sports Illustrated for the find.